Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We have written previously on why <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/324ae38b-37f4-4a65-940b-038231905ff2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1743">The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized</a>,</li><li>In our next report, <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tlac-regulations-will-destroy-banks-as-much-as-it-saves-them" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1776">TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them</a>, we focussed in on the negative side of the barbell, the banks that are set to struggle.</li><li>In this report we balance the scale, and discuss the positive end of the barbell. Those banks which are continuing to flourish, and are well placed to take advantage of the weakness of their competitors.</li><li>What is interesting in the world of increased banking regulation, and less leverage in particular, is how well most banks in South East Asia fare. But also, how some banks compare very well vs. others in the region.</li></ul>

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized,In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them, we focussed in on the negative side of the barbell, the banks that are set to struggle.In this report we balance the scale, and discuss the positive end of the barbell. Those banks which are continuing to flourish, and are well placed to take advantage of the weakness of their competitors.What is interesting in the world of increased banking regulation, and less leverage in particular, is how well most banks in South East Asia fare. But also, how some banks compare very well vs. others in the region.

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

<ul><li>The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns.</li><li>The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in order that they may be saved in a crisis.</li><li>It&rsquo;s ironic if not absurd.</li><li>This does not mean to say, that we believe banks should be highly leveraged, or engage in complicated, risky, murky businesses.</li><li>But it feels a bit like Basel got it immensely wrong, and is going over-board on its amends.</li></ul>

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns.The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in order that they may be saved in a crisis.It&rsquo;s ironic if not absurd.This does not mean to say, that we believe banks should be highly leveraged, or engage in complicated, risky, murky businesses.But it feels a bit like Basel got it immensely wrong, and is going over-board on its amends.

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the&nbsp;local and regional ramifications.&nbsp; It does not make for cheerful reading as the terrorist threat continues to evolve and extend its tendrils, with a&nbsp;nuanced response needed. Egyptians are working hard and I hope they pull through. This also highlights the severe geopolitical risk in the region, which I believe is the highest in a decade, even as OPEC spare capacity is at 08 lows.

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the&nbsp;local and regional ramifications.&nbsp;  It does not make for cheerful reading as the terrorist threat continues to evolve and extend its tendrils, with a&nbsp;nuanced response needed. Egyptians are working hard and I hope they pull through.  This also highlights the severe geopolitical risk in the region, which I believe is the highest in a decade, even as OPEC spare capacity is at 08 lows.

<ul><li>The polarization of the world&rsquo;s banks is gaining momentum.</li><li>The lumbering, large, globally systemically important banks are increasingly forced to shore up capital, limit their leverage, and limit potentially high return businesses.</li><li>Smaller, more domestic banks in Asia, and South East Asia in particular, are at the other end of this polarization.</li></ul>

The polarization of the world&rsquo;s banks is gaining momentum.The lumbering, large, globally systemically important banks are increasingly forced to shore up capital, limit their leverage, and limit potentially high return businesses.Smaller, more domestic banks in Asia, and South East Asia in particular, are at the other end of this polarization.

The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized

United States

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

The Allstate Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property-liability insurance, as well as other types of insurance in the United States and Canada. The Company primarily sells private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance through independent and specialized brokers. Allstate also sells life insurance, annuity, and group pension products through agents.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty and life insurance.  The Company markets a variety of insurance products and provides leasing and financing services.

Markel Corporation markets and underwrites specialty insurance products and programs to a variety of niche markets.  The Company also underwrites a diverse property, casualty, marine, and aviation insurance and reinsurance business on a worldwide basis.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. offers life and non-life insurance and reinsurance throughout the world.  The Company offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, aviation, transport, fire, general liability, and credit insurance and reinsurance.

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services.  AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

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Aon (AON US)

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized, In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as...

Daniel Tabbush

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in...

Daniel Tabbush

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region...

Emad Mostaque

Egypt on the brink

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the local...

Emad Mostaque

The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized

The polarization of the world’s banks is gaining momentum. The lumbering, large, globally systemically important banks are increasingly forced to...

Daniel Tabbush

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