FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point.  They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of the year supported by significant further monetary policy easing, cooperation among oil-producing nations, a sense that Chinese policymakers are working harder to underpin growth and stabilize its capital markets, and ECB efforts to mitigate the dampening effects of its negative rate policy on bank profits.  However, last week, global asset markets retreated after bumping up against down-trends established over the last year. Investors are worried that global growth and potential earnings remain tepid, that structural problems in emerging markets and over-supplied commodity markets remain. They may be concerned by the prospect of a return to monetary policy tightening in the US, the lingering doubts over bank profitability and loan quality, and limited further space to ease monetary and fiscal policy if required.  The outlook for US monetary policy will be important and key events this week will be watched closely.  We see the wages data at end week particularly important in the wake of a benign wage growth outlook in the 16 March FOMC meeting.

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.</li><li>Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…</li><li>So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up</li></ul>

 Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up 

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Core inflation may be heating up as the Fed is putting too much confidence in low energy prices.Most of the Fed's economic forecasts were little changed. It is expecting lower energy inflation, which it seems to believe will take off some of the pressure to raise interest rates sooner.However, this week's detailed inflation data grew more worrisome even as the headline report for February showed a seemingly tame deflation rate of 0.2%, driven almost entirely by falling energy prices, which are already rising again in March....Analysts: Robert Johnson &amp; Roland Czerniawski

Core inflation may be heating up as the Fed is putting too much confidence in low energy prices.Most of the Fed's economic forecasts were little changed. It is expecting lower energy inflation, which it seems to believe will take off some of the pressure to raise interest rates sooner.However, this week's detailed inflation data grew more worrisome even as the headline report for February showed a seemingly tame deflation rate of 0.2%, driven almost entirely by falling energy prices, which are already rising again in March....Analysts: Robert Johnson &amp; Roland Czerniawski

Did the Fed Forget to Look at the February Inflation Report?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul><li>ISA (individual savings account) could be a pivotal turning point for Korea's brokerage sector and Korean stock market, similar to how the introduction of 401(k) plan has been so important in encouraging equity participation in the US.</li><li>There were 658,040 new ISA accounts that were opened in Korea from March 14th (start of ISA) to 18th with total amount of 320 billion won.</li><li>A major purpose of the ISA is to provide tax breaks to Korean people so that they could reduce their tax burden and invest more for the long term.</li><li>One of the most important developments arising from the ISAs will be the encouragement of longer term equity culture in Korea.</li><li>We highlight a securities focused ETF called KODEX Securities (102970), which includes the major brokers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14560" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14560">Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd.</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/512" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:512">Samsung Securities Co Ltd</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14839" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14839">Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.</a>  For those who want a broad exposure to the securities sector in Korea but want to limit company specific risks, this could be an attractive ETF product. </li></ul>

ISA (individual savings account) could be a pivotal turning point for Korea's brokerage sector and Korean stock market, similar to how the introduction of 401(k) plan has been so important in encouraging equity participation in the US.There were 658,040 new ISA accounts that were opened in Korea from March 14th (start of ISA) to 18th with total amount of 320 billion won.A major purpose of the ISA is to provide tax breaks to Korean people so that they could reduce their tax burden and invest more for the long term.One of the most important developments arising from the ISAs will be the encouragement of longer term equity culture in Korea.We highlight a securities focused ETF called KODEX Securities (102970), which includes the major brokers such as Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. , Samsung Securities Co Ltd , and Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.  For those who want a broad exposure to the securities sector in Korea but want to limit company specific risks, this could be an attractive ETF product. 

ISA - Could Be a Pivotal Turning Point for Korea's Brokerage Sector

<ul><li>Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength </li></ul><ul><li>Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)</li></ul><ul><li>ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ</li></ul>

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

United States

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

The Allstate Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property-liability insurance, as well as other types of insurance in the United States and Canada. The Company primarily sells private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance through independent and specialized brokers. Allstate also sells life insurance, annuity, and group pension products through agents.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty and life insurance.  The Company markets a variety of insurance products and provides leasing and financing services.

Markel Corporation markets and underwrites specialty insurance products and programs to a variety of niche markets.  The Company also underwrites a diverse property, casualty, marine, and aviation insurance and reinsurance business on a worldwide basis.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. offers life and non-life insurance and reinsurance throughout the world.  The Company offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, aviation, transport, fire, general liability, and credit insurance and reinsurance.

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services.  AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

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Aon (AON US)

AmpGFX - US Wages Data a Potential Flash Point, Global Markets Inflection Point

Global markets and investor confidence have reached an inflection point. They have recovered from the extreme bearishness in the early months of...

Greg Gibbs

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks. Already elevated EM...

Kay Van-Petersen

Did the Fed Forget to Look at the February Inflation Report?

Core inflation may be heating up as the Fed is putting too much confidence in low energy prices.Most of the Fed's economic forecasts were little...

Morningstar, Inc.

ISA - Could Be a Pivotal Turning Point for Korea's Brokerage Sector

ISA (individual savings account) could be a pivotal turning point for Korea's brokerage sector and Korean stock market, similar to how the...

Douglas Kim

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro...

Kay Van-Petersen

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