Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy (1797 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm (1099 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961)</a>.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies (2018 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">COGARD (2007)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">CG Services (6098)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive inflows will be on East Buy (1797 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), Sinopharm (1099 HK), BYD (1211 HK), Lenovo (992 HK) and Trip.com (9961).
The largest passive outflows will be on Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AAC Technologies (2018 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), COGARD (2007) and CG Services (6098).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2023)

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy.</li>
<li>Management reconfirmed 2023 guidance for Fila and Anta at double-digit retail sales growth, and increased 2023 guidance for other brands to 40% yoy compared to 30% before. </li>
<li>Anta’s sales growth has been the most resilient in previous industry down-turns in China.  China macro worries should not be overly read through to Anta’s future results.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy.
Management reconfirmed 2023 guidance for Fila and Anta at double-digit retail sales growth, and increased 2023 guidance for other brands to 40% yoy compared to 30% before. 
Anta’s sales growth has been the most resilient in previous industry down-turns in China.  China macro worries should not be overly read through to Anta’s future results.


Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike combined with unattractive valuations.</li>
<li>In the next several months, we think there is a higher probability of Feng Tay's share price underperforming versus Nike.</li>
<li>Feng Tay Enterprise is one of the largest global OEM/ODM companies that specializes the design and manufacturing of footwear. Nike is one of the largest customers of Feng Tay Enterprise. </li>
</ul>


We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike combined with unattractive valuations.
In the next several months, we think there is a higher probability of Feng Tay's share price underperforming versus Nike.
Feng Tay Enterprise is one of the largest global OEM/ODM companies that specializes the design and manufacturing of footwear. Nike is one of the largest customers of Feng Tay Enterprise. 


Feng Tay Enterprise: Risks from Higher Inventory at Nike & Unattractive Valuations

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a> last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).</li>
<li>The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.</li>
<li>
Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).
The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.

Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).


EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2023)

The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across...

Brian Freitas

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles

Anta reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy, compared to market consensus of 20-25% growth.

Steve

Feng Tay Enterprise: Risks from Higher Inventory at Nike & Unattractive Valuations

We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike...

Douglas Kim

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

The Hang Seng Index is pulling back, but this move should be short-lived according to the Market Reversal Matrix's analysis of the index's support...

Nico Rosti

Screening for GEMs: July 2023

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

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