Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Almost a year ago, on 31 October 2019, the PBOC announced that after years of preparation (by the PBOC's Digital Currency Research Institute (央行数字货币研究所), established in 2017 and tasked with digital currency development and testing with counterparts, three years after the study effort was launched by then-Governor of the PBOC Xiaochuan Zhou in 2014), an official "digital <em>renmimbi</em>" would shortly be released. This "digital currency" is adapted to the world of cashless mobile payments, relevant for China as something like four out of every five payment transactions in China are now made through smartphone payment systems such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>'s AliPay and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>'s WeChat Pay according to a May 2020 <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3083952/what-chinas-cryptocurrency-sovereign-digital-currency-and-why" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> in the SCMP.</p><p>Known as the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DC/EP or "DCEP"), this sovereign digital currency issued by the central bank is designed to replace cash circulation - called M0 in monetary system language - and pass through a PBOC-approved electronic wallet application, which would be linked to a bank card/account, and would allow payment or receipt of digital <em>renmimbi</em> through merchants the way AliPay and WeChat Pay are used, or ATMs the way a bank card is used. It turns the mobile phone into a payment terminal or ATM. Interestingly, the system is also designed to be used offline - by phones being bumped together.</p><p>Ultimately, this digital currency (数字货币) is designed to track transactions between parties, providing the PBOC with a better understanding of the flow of money, credit, and person-to-person transfer of funds, allowing for more real-time understanding at the PBOC of money supply and money velocity. Eventually, it could also be used to track all money flow for regulatory and tax purposes. </p><p>In addition, the concept can be expanded to use cases for international trade and the PBOC is not shy about proclaiming that use case.</p><p>But what is it? How does it work? What is the purpose? Will it really mean the world moves to the RMB as a reserve currency?</p><p>Much more discussion continues below the fold.</p>

Almost a year ago, on 31 October 2019, the PBOC announced that after years of preparation (by the PBOC's Digital Currency Research Institute (央行数字货币研究所), established in 2017 and tasked with digital currency development and testing with counterparts, three years after the study effort was launched by then-Governor of the PBOC Xiaochuan Zhou in 2014), an official "digital renmimbi" would shortly be released. This "digital currency" is adapted to the world of cashless mobile payments, relevant for China as something like four out of every five payment transactions in China are now made through smartphone payment systems such as Alibaba Group (BABA US)'s AliPay and Tencent Holdings (700 HK)'s WeChat Pay according to a May 2020 article in the SCMP.Known as the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DC/EP or "DCEP"), this sovereign digital currency issued by the central bank is designed to replace cash circulation - called M0 in monetary system language - and pass through a PBOC-approved electronic wallet application, which would be linked to a bank card/account, and would allow payment or receipt of digital renmimbi through merchants the way AliPay and WeChat Pay are used, or ATMs the way a bank card is used. It turns the mobile phone into a payment terminal or ATM. Interestingly, the system is also designed to be used offline - by phones being bumped together.Ultimately, this digital currency (数字货币) is designed to track transactions between parties, providing the PBOC with a better understanding of the flow of money, credit, and person-to-person transfer of funds, allowing for more real-time understanding at the PBOC of money supply and money velocity. Eventually, it could also be used to track all money flow for regulatory and tax purposes. In addition, the concept can be expanded to use cases for international trade and the PBOC is not shy about proclaiming that use case.But what is it? How does it work? What is the purpose? Will it really mean the world moves to the RMB as a reserve currency?Much more discussion continues below the fold.

The NEW Chinese CBDC (DCEP - 数字货币) - Not Quite All The Money in China

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Private Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zerodha" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29664:1" rel="noopener">Zerodha (ZERO IN)</a> is attractively placed in the Indian Broking Industry. The core focus on both, the concept of self-service and a tech-savvy trader/investor has helped Zerodha gain market share which it is likely to maintain, in spite of competition inching up. With one of the lowest penetration of shares as a percentage of household savings, the industry dynamics remain favourable. </p>
<p>With presence across all asset classes for trading/investing and future plans to offer US Equities to clients and asset management services, Zerodha is likely to remain the force to reckon with. </p>

Zerodha (ZERO IN) is attractively placed in the Indian Broking Industry. The core focus on both, the concept of self-service and a tech-savvy trader/investor has helped Zerodha gain market share which it is likely to maintain, in spite of competition inching up. With one of the lowest penetration of shares as a percentage of household savings, the industry dynamics remain favourable. 
With presence across all asset classes for trading/investing and future plans to offer US Equities to clients and asset management services, Zerodha is likely to remain the force to reckon with. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial (1051260D CH)</a> plans to raise up to USD 30bn (now said to be US$35bn) via a dual listing on both Hong Kong Exchange and Shanghai STAR board. </p>
<p>Ant Group is not only the largest third-party payment player in China, it is also the no.1 independent player in each of the three non-payment segments by key operating metrics. </p>
<p>We have provided our thoughts on Ant Group from as early as 2018. We have since looked at the company’s past performance, individual segments and some of the regulatory issues. In this note, I’ll compare the company with some of its peers in the payments segment. </p>
<p></p>
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<h3>Our previous coverage on Ant Group</h3>
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<li dir="ltr">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-financial-ipo-early-thought-what-s-new-about-the-listing-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand the Fintech Empire, Growth and Risk Factors</a></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-financial-ipo-early-thought-understand-the-fintech-empire-growth-and-risk-factors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Financial (蚂蚁金服) IPO Early Thought: What’s New About the Listing News</a></p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-ipo-first-take-no-1-fintech-from-all-angles" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO First-Take: No. 1 Fintech from All Angles</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-ipo-numbers-suggest-it-s-more-tech-than-financials" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO: Numbers Suggest It’s More Tech than Financials</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-pre-ipo-things-to-clarify-questions-to-ask-falling-fees-margins-cash-flow" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Things to Clarify/​Questions to Ask - Falling Fees, Margins, Cash Flow</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-pre-ipo-dual-listing-makes-early-index-inclusion-tricky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Dual Listing Makes Early Index Inclusion Tricky</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alipay-s-advantage-over-wechat-pay-in-physical-stores" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AliPay’s Advantage over WeChat Pay in Physical Stores</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-running-neck-and-neck-with-tencent-in-direct-financial-services" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Running Neck and Neck with Tencent in Direct Financial Services</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-pre-ipo-impact-assessment-of-the-new-rule-for-financial-holding-companies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Impact Assessment of the New Rule for Financial Holding Companies</a></li>
</ul>

Ant Financial (1051260D CH) plans to raise up to USD 30bn (now said to be US$35bn) via a dual listing on both Hong Kong Exchange and Shanghai STAR board. 
Ant Group is not only the largest third-party payment player in China, it is also the no.1 independent player in each of the three non-payment segments by key operating metrics. 
We have provided our thoughts on Ant Group from as early as 2018. We have since looked at the company’s past performance, individual segments and some of the regulatory issues. In this note, I’ll compare the company with some of its peers in the payments segment. 



Our previous coverage on Ant Group





Ant Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand the Fintech Empire, Growth and Risk Factors


Ant Financial (蚂蚁金服) IPO Early Thought: What’s New About the Listing News

Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO First-Take: No. 1 Fintech from All Angles
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO: Numbers Suggest It’s More Tech than Financials
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Things to Clarify/​Questions to Ask - Falling Fees, Margins, Cash Flow
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Dual Listing Makes Early Index Inclusion Tricky
AliPay’s Advantage over WeChat Pay in Physical Stores



Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Running Neck and Neck with Tencent in Direct Financial Services
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Impact Assessment of the New Rule for Financial Holding Companies


Ant Group Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison - Payments - Baffling Scale, Small Tweaks for Large Profits

<p>Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a>'s spat over the application's removal from the Google PlayStore. Further, we also cover India's fantasy sports market where Dream11 sees Paytm First Games as a major threat.  </li>
<li>Apple set to open its first online store in India this festive season, on-ground fulfilment to be done by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-dart-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6700:1" rel="noopener">Blue Dart Express (BDE IN)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> owned Flipkart is planning an IPO, raises additional funds from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> </li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Paytm (PAYTM IN) and Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)'s spat over the application's removal from the Google PlayStore. Further, we also cover India's fantasy sports market where Dream11 sees Paytm First Games as a major threat.  
Apple set to open its first online store in India this festive season, on-ground fulfilment to be done by Blue Dart Express (BDE IN) 

Walmart (WMT US) owned Flipkart is planning an IPO, raises additional funds from Tencent Holdings (700 HK) 


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | PayTM, Apple, Flipkart

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>We are broadly positive about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-digits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29289:1" rel="noopener">JD Digits (JDD CH)</a>’s IPO. We like the fact that JDD is trying to leverage the consumer credit boom in China by providing B2B solutions for financial institutions rather than competing directly with the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial (1051260D CH)</a> in the consumer financing space. That being said, JDD should get a steady stream of revenue from providing consumer financing solutions to JD.com’s customers, whose GMV has been growing at around 20%-30% per year in the past few years. Moreover, our marginal profitability analysis suggests that there is room for JDD’s OP margin to improve further as the business scales. JDD also does not look expensive to us at the rumoured IPO valuation.</p>

We are broadly positive about JD Digits (JDD CH)’s IPO. We like the fact that JDD is trying to leverage the consumer credit boom in China by providing B2B solutions for financial institutions rather than competing directly with the likes of Ant Financial (1051260D CH) in the consumer financing space. That being said, JDD should get a steady stream of revenue from providing consumer financing solutions to JD.com’s customers, whose GMV has been growing at around 20%-30% per year in the past few years. Moreover, our marginal profitability analysis suggests that there is room for JDD’s OP margin to improve further as the business scales. JDD also does not look expensive to us at the rumoured IPO valuation.

JD Digits IPO: Leveraging the Chinese Consumer Credit Boom in a Non-Ant Way

China

Ant Group Co., Ltd. develops online payment platforms. The Company produces credit system and financial services platforms which provide consumers and small businesses with safe and convenient inclusive financial services globally. Ant Group provides its services worldwide.

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Ant Group (6688 HK)

The NEW Chinese CBDC (DCEP - 数字货币) - Not Quite All The Money in China

Almost a year ago, on 31 October 2019, the PBOC announced that after years of preparation, an official "digital renmimbi" would bre releas

Travis Lundy

Zerodha | India's Own Robinhood

What’s the primary reason for the Insight (price action, news flow, upcoming events etc)? What action would you suggest to an investor?

Pranav Bhavsar

Ant Group Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison - Payments - Baffling Scale, Small Tweaks for Large Profits

Our previous coverage on Ant Group Ant Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand the Fintech Empire, Growth and Risk Factors Ant Financial...

Sumeet Singh

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | PayTM, Apple, Flipkart

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private...

Pranav Bhavsar

JD Digits IPO: Leveraging the Chinese Consumer Credit Boom in a Non-Ant Way

We are broadly positive about JDD’s IPO. We like the fact that JDD is trying to leverage the consumer credit boom in China by providing B2B...

Supun Walpola

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