Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansell-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10777:1" rel="noopener">Ansell Ltd (ANN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/challenger-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16870:1" rel="noopener">Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.</li>
<li>One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.</li>
<li>With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>



Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) and Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.
One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.
With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansell-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10777:1" rel="noopener">Ansell Ltd (ANN AU)</a> reported weak H1FY23 result. Strong growth in industrial more than offset by lower healthcare sales leading to 11.5% overall revenue decline on an organic constant currency-basis.</li>
<li>Healthcare business sales declined 21.9% YoY on an organic constant currency-basis, mainly dragged by a 38% YoY decline in examination/single-use glove revenue with reductions in both price and volume.</li>
<li>Ansell has revised FY23 EPS guidance downward to $1.10–1.20 (down 21% YoY at mid-point) from $1.15–1.35 earlier, reflecting market condition in healthcare GBU.</li>
</ul>



Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) reported weak H1FY23 result. Strong growth in industrial more than offset by lower healthcare sales leading to 11.5% overall revenue decline on an organic constant currency-basis.
Healthcare business sales declined 21.9% YoY on an organic constant currency-basis, mainly dragged by a 38% YoY decline in examination/single-use glove revenue with reductions in both price and volume.
Ansell has revised FY23 EPS guidance downward to $1.10–1.20 (down 21% YoY at mid-point) from $1.15–1.35 earlier, reflecting market condition in healthcare GBU.


Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Macro Headwind to Negatively Impact Near-Term Financial Performance

<ul>
<li>There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.</li>
</ul>


There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.
Short interest on AMP Ltd (AMP AU) has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

Sri Trang Gloves Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Riding on COVID-driven demand boom, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a> reported record high performance in 2021, which is not likely to continue in near-term.</li>
<li>However, post pandemic, gloves demand is expected to improve on the back of increased glove usage from emerging markets with low gloves consumption per capita and heightened hygiene awareness.</li>
<li>STGT shares have corrected 15% thus far in this year, providing a good buy on dip opportunity. Shares can be considered for the long-haul.</li>
</ul>


Riding on COVID-driven demand boom, Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) reported record high performance in 2021, which is not likely to continue in near-term.
However, post pandemic, gloves demand is expected to improve on the back of increased glove usage from emerging markets with low gloves consumption per capita and heightened hygiene awareness.
STGT shares have corrected 15% thus far in this year, providing a good buy on dip opportunity. Shares can be considered for the long-haul.


Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB): Short-Term Pain; Long-Term Gain

Australia

Ansell Limited provides health and safety protection solutions. The Company has operations in North America, Latin America, EMEA, and Asia. Ansell holds positions in the industrial and medical gloves market, as well as health and well being category worldwide.

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Ansell Ltd (ANN AU)

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

There are 2 deletions and a lot of capping changes for the index. One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. The two...

Brian Freitas

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Macro Headwind to Negatively Impact Near-Term Financial Performance

Ansell reported 12% YOY revenue decline in H1FY23, dragged by 22% revenue decline in healthcare business, due to lower volume and ASP. The company...

Tina Banerjee

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 deletions for the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index in June. Capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 4.1% and a one...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB): Short-Term Pain; Long-Term Gain

With strong financials and aggressive capacity expansion plans, STGT can be a long-term bet to gain from the post pandemic global gloves demand boom.

Tina Banerjee

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