Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market activity, both bonds and stocks, has been all about realigning expectations. Wednesday’s Fed announcement was more dovish than expected, and the market is now pricing in roughly 25bps of cuts by the end of 2019. Stocks reacted positively on Thursday, but then reversed (and then some) on Friday as global growth concerns became a little more serious. We continue to maintain our positive outlook. In today’s report we recap our bullish investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples, Materials, and Services.

Market activity, both bonds and stocks, has been all about realigning expectations. Wednesday’s Fed announcement was more dovish than expected, and the market is now pricing in roughly 25bps of cuts by the end of 2019. Stocks reacted positively on Thursday, but then reversed (and then some) on Friday as global growth concerns became a little more serious. We continue to maintain our positive outlook. In today’s report we recap our bullish investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples, Materials, and Services.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and actionable individual stock recommendations, including opportunities in Brazil, Russia, Norway, Thailand and India.

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and actionable individual stock recommendations, including opportunities in Brazil, Russia, Norway, Thailand and India.

EM Strategy: Brazil Breaking Out, EM Energy Remains Attractive

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Shandong Gold Mining   / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27455" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1">Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK)</a> ’s first day of trading ended with a whimper. The company issued the stock at HK$14.70/share. The stock traded between HK$14.68-$14.72/share and closed at HK$14.70/share.In absence of any strong triggers in the short-term, we expect the stock to drift down post-stabilisation period or after one week of trading as evidenced in Global Equity Research‘s note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-trading-strategy-from-pop-to-flop-a-deep-dive-on-hk-ipo-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24258">IPO Trading Strategy: From Pop to Flop? A Deep-Dive on HK IPO Performance</a> published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1486" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1486">Rickin Thakrar</a>. Our base case valuation remains HK$11.10/share.

Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK) ’s first day of trading ended with a whimper. The company issued the stock at HK$14.70/share. The stock traded between HK$14.68-$14.72/share and closed at HK$14.70/share.In absence of any strong triggers in the short-term, we expect the stock to drift down post-stabilisation period or after one week of trading as evidenced in Global Equity Research‘s note IPO Trading Strategy: From Pop to Flop? A Deep-Dive on HK IPO Performance published by Rickin Thakrar. Our base case valuation remains HK$11.10/share.  

Shandong Gold Trading Update: First Day No Show

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12908:1">Shandong Gold Mining Co., (600547 CH)</a> has recently filed a revised PHIP. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9e62624c-ac4b-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619" target="_blank">Financial Times reports</a> that the company is likely to raise up to HK$1B and it appears to have received approval from the Hong Kong listing committee to sell ~380M shares. The company has still not provided pricing details of the IPO and H1/18 results. What's new is gold prices have fallen nearly ~8% YTD, as a result, we believe if the gold prices range ~US$1200/oz for rest of year the company is likely to report a net loss for the H2/18. We continue to be negative on IPO based on the company’s financial, however, we reserve our judgment until the IPO pricing is provided.

Shandong Gold Mining Co., (600547 CH) has recently filed a revised PHIP. Financial Times reports that the company is likely to raise up to HK$1B and it appears to have received approval from the Hong Kong listing committee to sell ~380M shares. The company has still not provided pricing details of the IPO and H1/18 results. What's new is gold prices have fallen nearly ~8% YTD, as a result, we believe if the gold prices range ~US$1200/oz for rest of year the company is likely to report a net loss for the H2/18. We continue to be negative on IPO based on the company’s financial, however, we reserve our judgment until the IPO pricing is provided.

Shandong Gold IPO Preview: Trim Hedges & Improve Margins, But Can They Do It

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Gold has had a great run in the last 15 years, beating almost all the other class. Is it the beginning of an another super cycle or is the current run going to peter out? We analyse gold as an investment vehicle, inflation hedge and its status as “asset of last resort”. We also look at the current trends in demand and supply and try to answer the eternal question “is it the right time to invest in gold or gold stocks”.

Gold has had a great run in the last 15 years, beating almost all the other class. Is it the beginning of an another super cycle or is the current run going to peter out? We analyse gold as an investment vehicle, inflation hedge and its status as “asset of last resort”. We also look at the current trends in demand and supply and try to answer the eternal question “is it the right time to invest in gold or gold stocks”.  

Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run?

South Africa

AngloGold Ashanti Limited is a holding company for a group of companies which explore for and mine gold internationally. The Group has operations in the Vaal River and West Witwatersrand areas of South Africa as well as Namibia, Mali, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Tanzania and the United States.

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AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr (AU US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Market activity, both bonds and stocks, has been all about realigning expectations. Wednesday’s Fed announcement was more dovish than expected, and...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: Brazil Breaking Out, EM Energy Remains Attractive

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and...

Vermilion Research

Shandong Gold Trading Update: First Day No Show

Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK) ’s first day of trading ended with a whimper. The company issued the stock at HK$14.70/share. The stock...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Shandong Gold IPO Preview: Trim Hedges & Improve Margins, But Can They Do It

Shandong Gold Mining Co., (600547 CH) has recently filed a revised PHIP. Financial Times reports that the company is likely to raise up to HK$1B...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run?

Gold has had a great run in the last 15 years, beating almost all the other class. Is it the beginning of an another super cycle or is the current...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

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