Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2025 based on trading data as of end-September 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2025 based on trading data as of end-September 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.</li>
<li>We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.</li>
<li>We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.</li>
</ul>


We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.
We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.
We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.


APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

<ul>
<li>ANA has revised its FY24 to March 2024 profit guidance upward on higher revenues; EBIT up from ¥120bn to ¥190bn in line with consensus (AIRCT ¥182bn).</li>
<li>Air Transportation naturally drives the upgrade, with its EBIT guide up ¥60bn as higher revenues outweigh higher costs.</li>
<li>This upgrade also has major relevance for JAL, where expect a FY24 EBIT guidance upgrade. We are at ¥177bn versus consensus of ¥142bn/guidance of ¥130bn.</li>
</ul>


ANA has revised its FY24 to March 2024 profit guidance upward on higher revenues; EBIT up from ¥120bn to ¥190bn in line with consensus (AIRCT ¥182bn).
Air Transportation naturally drives the upgrade, with its EBIT guide up ¥60bn as higher revenues outweigh higher costs.
This upgrade also has major relevance for JAL, where expect a FY24 EBIT guidance upgrade. We are at ¥177bn versus consensus of ¥142bn/guidance of ¥130bn.


ANA Holdings -Big Upgrade with Big Read Across for JAL

<ul>
<li>Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.</li>
<li>However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.</li>
<li>In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.</li>
</ul>


Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.
However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.
In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.


All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Japan

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

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Ana Holdings (9202 JP)

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

There are 43 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The final rankings will be based on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

Deep dive on earnings prospects of the top tier ex-China APAC full service carriers illustrates marked differences in inflation management, and...

Neil Glynn

ANA Holdings -Big Upgrade with Big Read Across for JAL

ANA upgrades FY24 EBIT guidance by 58% after 3Q as higher revenues outweigh higher costs. Read across for JAL, where we expect a big upgrade; we...

Neil Glynn

All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

This note highlights ANA FY24 guidance is very cautious. However, we see consensus as already there for FY24, in contrast to very low consensus...

Neil Glynn

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

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