Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-<em>November</em> 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-November 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2025 based on trading data as of end-September 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2025 based on trading data as of end-September 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.</li>
<li>We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.</li>
<li>We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.</li>
</ul>


We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.
We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.
We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.


APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

<ul>
<li>ANA has revised its FY24 to March 2024 profit guidance upward on higher revenues; EBIT up from ¥120bn to ¥190bn in line with consensus (AIRCT ¥182bn).</li>
<li>Air Transportation naturally drives the upgrade, with its EBIT guide up ¥60bn as higher revenues outweigh higher costs.</li>
<li>This upgrade also has major relevance for JAL, where expect a FY24 EBIT guidance upgrade. We are at ¥177bn versus consensus of ¥142bn/guidance of ¥130bn.</li>
</ul>


ANA has revised its FY24 to March 2024 profit guidance upward on higher revenues; EBIT up from ¥120bn to ¥190bn in line with consensus (AIRCT ¥182bn).
Air Transportation naturally drives the upgrade, with its EBIT guide up ¥60bn as higher revenues outweigh higher costs.
This upgrade also has major relevance for JAL, where expect a FY24 EBIT guidance upgrade. We are at ¥177bn versus consensus of ¥142bn/guidance of ¥130bn.


ANA Holdings -Big Upgrade with Big Read Across for JAL

<ul>
<li>Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.</li>
<li>However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.</li>
<li>In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.</li>
</ul>


Our FY24 to March 2024 EBIT forecast for ANA of ¥ 196bn is considerably higher than company guidance of ¥ 140bn, supported by our analysis of historical earnings seasonality.
However, we are only narrowly above consensus of ¥186bn, and narrowly below consensus of ¥204bn, ¥208bn in FY25, FY26.
In contrast, we see considerably greater upside to expectations at JAL, where our FY24 EBIT is 27% above consensus.


All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

Japan

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

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Ana Holdings (9202 JP)

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

In total, there are 46 Potential ADDs and 45 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. There are 7 months to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

There are 43 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The final rankings will be based on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

Deep dive on earnings prospects of the top tier ex-China APAC full service carriers illustrates marked differences in inflation management, and...

Neil Glynn

ANA Holdings -Big Upgrade with Big Read Across for JAL

ANA upgrades FY24 EBIT guidance by 58% after 3Q as higher revenues outweigh higher costs. Read across for JAL, where we expect a big upgrade; we...

Neil Glynn

All Nippon Airways: Difficult to Outperform Expectations - In Contrast to JAL

This note highlights ANA FY24 guidance is very cautious. However, we see consensus as already there for FY24, in contrast to very low consensus...

Neil Glynn

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