Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> is one of the least expensive banks in Emerging Asean at 0.5x PB and certainly larger than most all of the 10 least expensive banks, at $2.5bn in market cap.  The bank’s credit cost delta can prove substantial to support ROA back to more normal levels, although this may not transpire in the current quarter. </p>

AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) is one of the least expensive banks in Emerging Asean at 0.5x PB and certainly larger than most all of the 10 least expensive banks, at $2.5bn in market cap.  The bank’s credit cost delta can prove substantial to support ROA back to more normal levels, although this may not transpire in the current quarter. 

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-in-robust-health-despite-transient-threat-of-us-s301-action" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43795" rel="noopener">Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-exports-covid-best-is-behind" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44020" rel="noopener">Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/media-nusantara-citra-mncn-ij-no-credit-given-for-metamorphosis" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> examines an aggressive sell-off in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indomobil-sukses-internasional-imas-ij-emerging-transport-monolith" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43927" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?,</a> CrossASEAN insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ),</a> which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mestika-dharma-september-quarter-reversals-surge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44089" rel="noopener">Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ammb-top-decile-ph-score-and-vfm-asset" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44065" rel="noopener">AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener"></a>In Singapore,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-singapore-reits-implications-from-cct-cmt-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-store-expansion-still-going-strong-undemanding-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43929" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation,</a> IPO specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> IPO tempting at the proposed price. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-quality-homes" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shifara Samsudeen</a> takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-inexpensive-valuation-compared-to-peers-despite-better-growth-profile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44019" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3297" rel="noopener">Shifara Samsudeen,</a> provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-best-inc-two-approaches-to-ecommerce-logistics-growth-in-se-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia</a> examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> and by<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BEST Inc (BEST US). </a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-positive-sentiments-from-joining-hands-with-pea-encom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43897" rel="noopener">BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b-grimm-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23996:1" rel="noopener">B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)</a> to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-positives-clouded-but-persist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Daniel Tabbush</a> discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silicon-stories-m-if-you-can-t-beat-them-join-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them</a>, Thai specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a>,  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-in-the-race-to-replace-cct-finally-some-daylight-emerges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43862" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact,</a> Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Hank Calenti, CFA</a> discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a>'s recent bond issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. </p><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-plight-of-the-garuda" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Plight of the Garuda</a>, Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Derek Silva</a>,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. In Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,Sharmila Whelan looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Indonesia, Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh examines an aggressive sell-off in Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  In Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?, CrossASEAN insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ), which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.In Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. In AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,Paul Hollingworth zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.In Singapore, Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger, Sumeet Singh takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. In MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation, IPO specialist Zhen Zhou, Toh revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. In Malaysia, Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights, Arun George provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) IPO tempting at the proposed price. In Malaysia, MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes, Shifara Samsudeen takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.In MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,Shifara Samsudeen, provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. In Thailand, Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) and by BEST Inc (BEST US). In BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM, our friends at Country Group expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. Sector and ThematicIn Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. In Thailand, Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them, Thai specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB),  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. In STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. Credit InsightsIn Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact, Credit Specialist Hank Calenti, CFA discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)'s recent bond issue. In Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,Hank Calenti, CFA dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. In Indonesia, The Plight of the Garuda, Credit Specialist Derek Silva,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">Ammb Holdings (AMM MK)</a>  shows benign fundamental momentum (high PH Score™) with improved Liquidity and Capitalisation, stable Asset Quality and NIM, and a standout enhancement in Efficiency which cushioned the blow of higher Credit Costs.</p><p>Our PH Score™ shows that the bank is making marked headway on the Efficiency front which is a key variable to underpin Profitability moving forward given a stable though thin NIM. Liquidity and Capitalisation trends are benign too while Asset Quality is stable. The top-line shows moderate growth, in line with Credit expansion, and lower Funding Costs while “non-core Income” represented 23% of PT Profit – an indication of reasonable earnings quality- despite robust trading gains. The bottom-line was impacted lower by higher Credit Costs as elsewhere (with the exception of China) which may reverse going forward. Comprehensive Income was in excess of Net Profit – a good sign.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>VFM expresses an asset according to its value-quality characteristics (PH Score™), its technical picture, and an additional valuation filter. <strong>AMMB is in the top decile globally</strong>.</p></div><p>AMMB is looking at focusing its core operations away from insurance which may unlock long-term value.</p><p>The shares are not dear. A FV of 8%, a PBV of 0.47x, an Earnings Yield of 15.7%, a Dividend Yield of 4.5%, and a Total Return Ratio of 1.6x are not unattractive. Shares thus trade below common-sense thresholds of 10% (FV), 1x (PBV), 10% (EY), and 1x (TRR) respectively.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The PH Score™ is a fundamental momentum-quantamental score that scores banks according to changes in value-quality. The Score encompasses Profitability, Operating Efficiency, Liquidity, Capital, Asset Quality, and Coverage as well as a valuation variable. Scores lie between 0 and 10, with higher scores representing more positive signs. The PH Score™ was back tested over 2007-17 for global banks and conclusively shows progressively higher returns across quintiles ranked by Score. </p></div>

Ammb Holdings (AMM MK)  shows benign fundamental momentum (high PH Score™) with improved Liquidity and Capitalisation, stable Asset Quality and NIM, and a standout enhancement in Efficiency which cushioned the blow of higher Credit Costs.Our PH Score™ shows that the bank is making marked headway on the Efficiency front which is a key variable to underpin Profitability moving forward given a stable though thin NIM. Liquidity and Capitalisation trends are benign too while Asset Quality is stable. The top-line shows moderate growth, in line with Credit expansion, and lower Funding Costs while “non-core Income” represented 23% of PT Profit – an indication of reasonable earnings quality- despite robust trading gains. The bottom-line was impacted lower by higher Credit Costs as elsewhere (with the exception of China) which may reverse going forward. Comprehensive Income was in excess of Net Profit – a good sign.VFM expresses an asset according to its value-quality characteristics (PH Score™), its technical picture, and an additional valuation filter. AMMB is in the top decile globally.AMMB is looking at focusing its core operations away from insurance which may unlock long-term value.The shares are not dear. A FV of 8%, a PBV of 0.47x, an Earnings Yield of 15.7%, a Dividend Yield of 4.5%, and a Total Return Ratio of 1.6x are not unattractive. Shares thus trade below common-sense thresholds of 10% (FV), 1x (PBV), 10% (EY), and 1x (TRR) respectively.  The PH Score™ is a fundamental momentum-quantamental score that scores banks according to changes in value-quality. The Score encompasses Profitability, Operating Efficiency, Liquidity, Capital, Asset Quality, and Coverage as well as a valuation variable. Scores lie between 0 and 10, with higher scores representing more positive signs. The PH Score™ was back tested over 2007-17 for global banks and conclusively shows progressively higher returns across quintiles ranked by Score. 

AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a></p>
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mid-year-thai-strategy-review-2020-focus-on-recovery-plays" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38781" rel="noopener">Mid-Year Thai Strategy Review 2020: Focus on Recovery Plays,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his thoughts and recommendations for 2H2020 in Thailand. </p><h2>Equity Bottom-Up  Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/telekomunikasi-indonesia-tlkm-ij-nurturing-the-new-economy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40041" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Nurturing the New Economy,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest telco and finds it making significant strides into the digital economy. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/valuetronics-value-sp-cash-is-an-important-asset-expansion-in-vietnam-continues" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40015" rel="noopener">Valuetronics (VALUE SP): Cash Is an Important Asset + Expansion in Vietnam Continues,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits this electronics player and although valuations look cheap, it faces headwinds from its predominantly Chinese production together with a large market focus on the USA. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/comfort-delgro-cd-back-to-office-bto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40020" rel="noopener">Comfort Delgro (CD): Back-To-Office (BTO),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> circles back to this Singapore taxi operator in light of a lifting of the circuit breaker in the near future.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bdo-unibank-is-a-capital-raise-next" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39969" rel="noopener">BDO Unibank – Is A Capital Raise Next?,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> zeros in on Philippine bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bdo-unibank-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:329:1" rel="noopener">BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM)</a> after the announcement of a special loan loss provision. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-the-rights-distribution-vol-is-your-friend" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39991" rel="noopener">Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> post its rights issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-aftermath-of-the-rights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39837" rel="noopener">Singapore Air - Aftermath of the Rights,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> takes a step back and reviews the potential post-rights positioning for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vgi-most-solid-player-in-media-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40073" rel="noopener">VGI: Most Solid Player in Media Sector,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> having attended the analyst meeting on 2nd June, where they came back with a neutral tone. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gulf-fastest-growing-utility-player-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40103" rel="noopener">GULF: Fastest Growing Utility Player in Thailand,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> with a BUY rating, based on a 2021E target price of Bt44.6, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-press-reach-for-1-18" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39976" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Reach for SGD1.18,</a> technical analysis specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a> works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> and takes a bearish view on the removal from the Index the company created.</p><h2>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener"></a>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-reits-new-rental-relief-framework-for-smes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40053" rel="noopener">Singapore REITs - New Rental Relief Framework for SMEs,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> revisits the Singapore REITs sector post the announcement of rental relief for SMEs by the Government. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-review-and-ironic-it-is" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40037" rel="noopener">STI Index Review - And Ironic It Is!,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> comments the review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-straits-times-index-sti" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22902:1" rel="noopener">FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)</a> which took place last week. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/klci-index-review-liquidity-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40040" rel="noopener">KLCI Index Review - Liquidity Play,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> comments on the recent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX). </a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-sti-laggard-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39943" rel="noopener">Singapore STI Laggard Play,</a> technical analysis specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a> comments on Singapore's ST Index and sees it as an attractive laggard. </p><h2>Credit Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/olam-international-cocoa-against-covid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40059" rel="noopener">Olam International: Cocoa Against COVID,</a> Credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/warut-promboon" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1226" rel="noopener">Warut Promboon</a> initiates coverage on Singapore-based commodity player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP),</a> as management shifts to more value-added businesses and processes. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oue-ltd-bonds-not-joining-the-party" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39999" rel="noopener">OUE Ltd. - Bonds Not Joining the Party,</a> Credit Specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/lakshmi-iyer-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9363" rel="noopener">Lakshmi Iyer, CFA</a> takes a look at this Singapore property company's 2023 bonds. </p><div><div id="ember56480"><section></section></div></div><div><div id="ember56622"><div id="ember56623"><div></div></div></div></div>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.
Macro InsightsIn Mid-Year Thai Strategy Review 2020: Focus on Recovery Plays, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his thoughts and recommendations for 2H2020 in Thailand. Equity Bottom-Up  InsightsIn Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Nurturing the New Economy, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest telco and finds it making significant strides into the digital economy. In Valuetronics (VALUE SP): Cash Is an Important Asset + Expansion in Vietnam Continues, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this electronics player and although valuations look cheap, it faces headwinds from its predominantly Chinese production together with a large market focus on the USA. In Comfort Delgro (CD): Back-To-Office (BTO), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko circles back to this Singapore taxi operator in light of a lifting of the circuit breaker in the near future.In BDO Unibank – Is A Capital Raise Next?,Thomas J. Monaco zeros in on Philippine bank BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM) after the announcement of a special loan loss provision. In Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend,Travis Lundy revisits Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) post its rights issue. In Singapore Air - Aftermath of the Rights,Travis Lundy takes a step back and reviews the potential post-rights positioning for Singapore Airlines (SIA SP).In VGI: Most Solid Player in Media Sector, our friends at Country Group revisit VGI PCL (VGI TB) having attended the analyst meeting on 2nd June, where they came back with a neutral tone. In GULF: Fastest Growing Utility Player in Thailand,Country Group initiate coverage of Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) with a BUY rating, based on a 2021E target price of Bt44.6, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology.In Singapore Press Reach for SGD1.18, technical analysis specialist Thomas Schroeder works his magic on Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) and takes a bearish view on the removal from the Index the company created.
Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Singapore REITs - New Rental Relief Framework for SMEs,Sumeet Singh revisits the Singapore REITs sector post the announcement of rental relief for SMEs by the Government. In STI Index Review - And Ironic It Is!,Brian Freitas comments the review of the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) which took place last week. In KLCI Index Review - Liquidity Play,Brian Freitas comments on the recent changes to the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX). In Singapore STI Laggard Play, technical analysis specialist Thomas Schroeder comments on Singapore's ST Index and sees it as an attractive laggard. Credit InsightsIn Olam International: Cocoa Against COVID, Credit specialist Warut Promboon initiates coverage on Singapore-based commodity player Olam International (OLAM SP), as management shifts to more value-added businesses and processes. In OUE Ltd. - Bonds Not Joining the Party, Credit Specialist Lakshmi Iyer, CFA takes a look at this Singapore property company's 2023 bonds. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thai Strategy, New Economy Telco, and Olam

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Infigen, Huadian Fuxin, Melco, Evergrande, Hitachi, Sing Air, DP World

Malaysia

AMMB Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides merchant and commercial banking, retail financing, stock and futures broking, and investment advisory. AMMB also underwrites general insurance, provides asset and unit trust management, and nominees services.

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AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)

AMMB – Will Valuation Gap Narrow?

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Daniel Tabbush

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

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Angus Mackintosh

AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset

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Paul Hollingworth

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thai Strategy, New Economy Telco, and Olam

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Infigen, Huadian Fuxin, Melco, Evergrande, Hitachi, Sing Air, DP World

Last Week in Event SPACE ... The Infigen Energy (IFN AU) deal is effectively unconditional as long as there are no major conditions breached,...

David Blennerhassett

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