Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alliance Bank Malaysia / Equity Bottom-Up

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in Malaysia. Or at least, not yet &ndash; not fully.There are few banks in Asia-Pacific that show a similar magnitude and steady decline in NPLs over the past nine years. From 2007 to 2015 (fiscal year ends in March), AFG&rsquo;s NPL ratio declined from 10.8% to 1.0%. This is a 91% decline over the periodThis has been a key driver in the bank&rsquo;s ability to see profit up nearly 400% over the period, as credit costs became less onerous. But what&rsquo;s happened with market capitalization?This requires a closer look.More below the fold....&nbsp;

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in Malaysia. Or at least, not yet &ndash; not fully.There are few banks in Asia-Pacific that show a similar magnitude and steady decline in NPLs over the past nine years. From 2007 to 2015 (fiscal year ends in March), AFG&rsquo;s NPL ratio declined from 10.8% to 1.0%. This is a 91% decline over the periodThis has been a key driver in the bank&rsquo;s ability to see profit up nearly 400% over the period, as credit costs became less onerous. But what&rsquo;s happened with market capitalization?This requires a closer look.More below the fold....&nbsp;

AFG MK: Winning NPL profile in Asia, not being rewarded…Yet

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While the popular view remains that Iskandar's development is largely being driven by investments from Singapore households into the residential market, however, the actual dynamics are quite different.&nbsp;Over 60% of the cumulative investments have been from Malaysia while residential property makes up only 24% of the total investments.&nbsp;Thus, waning demand for residential assets is unlikely to derail the Iskandar express.

While the popular view remains that Iskandar's development is largely being driven by investments from Singapore households into the residential market, however, the actual dynamics are quite different.&nbsp;Over 60% of the cumulative investments have been from Malaysia while residential property makes up only 24% of the total investments.&nbsp;Thus, waning demand for residential assets is unlikely to derail the Iskandar express.

Can Iskandar Malaysia succeed without Singapore?

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Malaysia&rsquo;s government recently rolled out the new Goods &amp; Services Tax (GST) on 1 April 2015. But many people are still unsure as to its full impact on the country&rsquo;s property market, especially the housing sector.To help prospective buyers, PropertyGuru Malaysia has compared the new tax regime with the old one to give consumers an idea of its potential effects.

Malaysia&rsquo;s government recently rolled out the new Goods &amp; Services Tax (GST) on 1 April 2015. But many people are still unsure as to its full impact on the country&rsquo;s property market, especially the housing sector.To help prospective buyers, PropertyGuru Malaysia has compared the new tax regime with the old one to give consumers an idea of its potential effects.

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Malaysia

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, investments, loans, insurance, wealth management, phone banking, and business cards. Alliance Bank Malaysia serves customers in Singapore and Malaysia.

BIMB Holdings Berhad provides all aspects of Islamic banking services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company underwrites family and general takaful (Islamic insurance) and provides stock broking and other related services. BIMB Holdings  also has operation in unit trust management, provides training and consultancy  services, and leases fixed assets to related companies.

RHB Bank BHD provides banking services. The Company offers commercial and consumer banking, corporate and investment banking, and international banking services. RHB also provides savings accounts, foreign currency accounts, home and travel insurance, and investment planning.

Malaysia Building Society Berhad grants loans on the security of freehold and leasehold properties.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates property development and leases real property.

Hong Leong Bank Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services.  The Company's services include leasing and hire purchase, nominee, Islamic Banking, and unit trust management.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and invests in real estate.

Bursa Malaysia Bhd is a fully integrated exchange, offering a wide range of exchange-related services, including trading, clearing, settlement, and depository services. The exchange also offers information services related to the Malaysian securities market.

LPI Capital Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company underwrites all classes of general insurance which includes fire, auto, and marine insurances. The Company also provides financing of leases services.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Bank of Hawaii Corporation is a regional financial services holding company with locations throughout the Pacific. The Company and its subsidiaries offers a wide range of financial services to businesses, governments, and individuals in Hawaii, the West Pacific, and American Samoa. Bank of Hawaii provides services such as commercial banking, investment and trust services, and mortgages.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

Park National Corporation is a multi-bank holding company.  The Banks provide a variety of financial services, including savings and time accounts, consumer and real estate lending, safe deposit operations, and electronic funds transfers. Park National operates in Ohio.

Community Bank System, Inc. is a holding company for Community Bank, N.A.  The Bank offers a range of commercial and retail banking services in each of its market areas to business, individual, agricultural, and governmental customers. Community Bank operates in northern New York to the southern tier, west to Lake Erie, and in northeastern Pennsylvania.

CVB Financial Corp. is the holding company for Citizens Business Bank and Community Trust Deed Services.  The Bank attracts deposits and originates loans, as well as serves as a federal tax depository for its business customers. Citizens operates in Southern California.

Cathay General Bancorp is the holding company for Cathay Bank.  The Bank accepts deposits and originates various loans, and offers trade financing, spot and forward contracts, internet banking, global investment services, and other services.  Cathay Bank operates in California, New York, Texas, Washington, and Massachusetts.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk operates in individual and private banking, merchant and corporate banking, regional banking, and investment services.  The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing and factoring, stock broking, underwriting, insurance and investment management through its subsidiaries.

Simmons First National Corporation is a multibank holding company.  The Banks offer various loans, credit card services, checking and savings accounts, personal and corporate trust services, and other products and services through offices located in Arkansas.

AMMB Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides merchant and commercial banking, retail financing, stock and futures broking, and investment advisory. AMMB also underwrites general insurance, provides asset and unit trust management, and nominees services.

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AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)

AFG MK: Winning NPL profile in Asia, not being rewarded…Yet

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in...

Daniel Tabbush

Can Iskandar Malaysia succeed without Singapore?

While the popular view remains that Iskandar's development is largely being driven by investments from Singapore households into the residential...

PropertyGuru

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

How will GST impact Malaysia property?

Malaysia’s government recently rolled out the new Goods & Services Tax (GST) on 1 April 2015. But many people are still unsure as to its full...

PropertyGuru

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

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