Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/revolution-medicines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36535:1" rel="noopener">Revolution Medicines (RVMD US)</a>  is focused on therapies to inhibit frontier targets in RAS-addicted cancers. The company’s pipeline is among the strongest in small-cap biotech. </li>
<li>We expect Revolution Medicines shares to outperform the market over the next 12 months as solid performance from the RAS(ON) inhibitor pipeline and oral inhibitor of SHP2 continues. </li>
<li>Investors gain confidence in the rest of the RAS(ON) inhibitor pipeline, including RMC-6291, RMC-6236, and RMC-5552. Management will provide topline data from RMC-4630-03 in 2H 2023. </li>
</ul>



Revolution Medicines (RVMD US)  is focused on therapies to inhibit frontier targets in RAS-addicted cancers. The company’s pipeline is among the strongest in small-cap biotech. 
We expect Revolution Medicines shares to outperform the market over the next 12 months as solid performance from the RAS(ON) inhibitor pipeline and oral inhibitor of SHP2 continues. 
Investors gain confidence in the rest of the RAS(ON) inhibitor pipeline, including RMC-6291, RMC-6236, and RMC-5552. Management will provide topline data from RMC-4630-03 in 2H 2023. 


2023 High Conviction: Revolution Medicines – Cracking The KRAS In Cancer

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Despite the challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the pharmaceutical business, Amgen’s stock has been on a strong upward trajectory over the past weeks.</li><li>The development of Tavneos is the first new therapy for ANCA-associated vasculitis in more than ten years.</li><li>They also developed an industry-leading biosimilar business and will soon be the first company to introduce a biosimilar to Humira in the United States.</li></ul>

Despite the challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the pharmaceutical business, Amgen’s stock has been on a strong upward trajectory over the past weeks.The development of Tavneos is the first new therapy for ANCA-associated vasculitis in more than ten years.They also developed an industry-leading biosimilar business and will soon be the first company to introduce a biosimilar to Humira in the United States.

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> has recently received FDA approval for Vegzelma, a biosimilar to the reference product Avastin (bevacizumab), for the treatment of multiple types of cancer.</li>
<li>Apart from Celltrion, FDA has already approved three Avastin biosimilars. With increasing competition, ASP for the market leader Mvasi in the U.S. declined 39% y/y and 21% q/q in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Despite being present in the U.S. oncology biosimilar market for quite a long time, Celltrion has not been able to gain dominant market share for its existing products.</li>
</ul>



Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) has recently received FDA approval for Vegzelma, a biosimilar to the reference product Avastin (bevacizumab), for the treatment of multiple types of cancer.
Apart from Celltrion, FDA has already approved three Avastin biosimilars. With increasing competition, ASP for the market leader Mvasi in the U.S. declined 39% y/y and 21% q/q in 2Q22.
Despite being present in the U.S. oncology biosimilar market for quite a long time, Celltrion has not been able to gain dominant market share for its existing products.


Celltrion (068270 KS): Competition Makes US Approval of New Oncology Biosimilar Unappealing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sillajen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22838:1" rel="noopener">SillaJen Inc (215600 KS)</a> has developed a differentiated pipeline of oncolytic vaccinia immunotherapy. Its lead drug candidate Pexa-Vec is in phase 2 clinical trial for renal cell carcinoma.</li>
<li>SillaJen has acquired a first-in-class anti-cancer drug candidate BAL0891 from Basilea for upfront payment of $14 million. The company’s cash position is capable to fund the acquisition and R&amp;D expenses.</li>
<li>Korean Stock Exchange is expected to announce its decision on SillaJen stock trading resumption by October 12.</li>
</ul>



SillaJen Inc (215600 KS) has developed a differentiated pipeline of oncolytic vaccinia immunotherapy. Its lead drug candidate Pexa-Vec is in phase 2 clinical trial for renal cell carcinoma.
SillaJen has acquired a first-in-class anti-cancer drug candidate BAL0891 from Basilea for upfront payment of $14 million. The company’s cash position is capable to fund the acquisition and R&amp;D expenses.
Korean Stock Exchange is expected to announce its decision on SillaJen stock trading resumption by October 12.


SillaJen Inc (215600 KS): Baselia Deal Enriches Pipeline; Stock Trading Resumption Decision Soon

United States

Amgen Inc. is an independent biotechnology medicines company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for grievous illnesses. The Company focuses solely on human therapeutics and concentrates on innovating novel medicines based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.

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Amgen Inc (AMGN US)

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

2023 High Conviction: Revolution Medicines – Cracking The KRAS In Cancer

Oncology-focused unicorn Revolution Medicines is our high-risk/high-reward conviction idea for 2023 as we see room for further gains among select...

Andrei Zakharov

Amgen Inc: Major Drivers

Despite the challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the pharmaceutical business, Amgen’s stock has been on a strong upward trajectory over...

Baptista Research

Celltrion (068270 KS): Competition Makes US Approval of New Oncology Biosimilar Unappealing

Celltrion got FDA approval for its oncology biosimilar Vegzelma. However, increasing competition and price erosion in the US market, lessen...

Tina Banerjee

SillaJen Inc (215600 KS): Baselia Deal Enriches Pipeline; Stock Trading Resumption Decision Soon

Despite recent acquisition of a first-in-class oncology drug candidate, SillaJen is a risky bet amid regulatory crackdown and past clinical trial...

Tina Banerjee

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