Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s</a> oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.</li>
<li>However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.</li>
<li>PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbvie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1135:1" rel="noopener">Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)</a> shares remained rangebound in 2021, mainly due to Humira patent expiration overhang. Humira is the flagship drug of the company, accounting for 37% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Increasing label expansion of its two other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now increasingly opening up new growth avenues for AbbVie. Together these drugs contributed 8% to total revenue.</li>
<li>Attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield make AbbVie a top value investment idea amid this turbulent time.</li>
</ul>



Abbvie Inc (ABBV US) shares remained rangebound in 2021, mainly due to Humira patent expiration overhang. Humira is the flagship drug of the company, accounting for 37% of total revenue.
Increasing label expansion of its two other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now increasingly opening up new growth avenues for AbbVie. Together these drugs contributed 8% to total revenue.
Attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield make AbbVie a top value investment idea amid this turbulent time.


AbbVie Inc (ABBV US): Great Value Stock to Buy in Choppy Market

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Credit

<ul><li>Biogen has been going through a rough patch off-late.</li><li>One of its core drugs, Tecifidera's revenue continued to erode in the U.S. due to generic entry.</li><li>Based on our credit analysis, the company merits a Credit Evaluation Score of BBβ with a stable outlook and as per our Financial Strength Indicator, its performance is 3.66/ 5.</li></ul>

Biogen has been going through a rough patch off-late.One of its core drugs, Tecifidera's revenue continued to erode in the U.S. due to generic entry.Based on our credit analysis, the company merits a Credit Evaluation Score of BBβ with a stable outlook and as per our Financial Strength Indicator, its performance is 3.66/ 5.

Biogen Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

<ul><li>Amgen has continued to benefit from strong global demand for many of their innovative medicines, such as Repatha and Prolia, as well as their biosimilar offerings.</li><li>Teneobio's acquisition, when combined with Nuevolution's DNA encoded library technology, gives Amgen the ability to develop both large and small molecule multi-specifics.</li><li>Based on our credit analysis, the company merits a Credit Evaluation Score of BBβ with a stable outlook and as per our Financial Strength Indicator, its performance is 3.69/ 5.</li></ul>

Amgen has continued to benefit from strong global demand for many of their innovative medicines, such as Repatha and Prolia, as well as their biosimilar offerings.Teneobio's acquisition, when combined with Nuevolution's DNA encoded library technology, gives Amgen the ability to develop both large and small molecule multi-specifics.Based on our credit analysis, the company merits a Credit Evaluation Score of BBβ with a stable outlook and as per our Financial Strength Indicator, its performance is 3.69/ 5.

Amgen Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

United States

Amgen Inc. is an independent biotechnology medicines company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for grievous illnesses. The Company focuses solely on human therapeutics and concentrates on innovating novel medicines based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.

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Amgen Inc (AMGN US)

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

Going by the FDA’s recent action, Junshi Bioscience’s toripalimab has a chance to get rejected by the FDA. It may miss the approval timeline....

Tina Banerjee

AbbVie Inc (ABBV US): Great Value Stock to Buy in Choppy Market

Abbvie’s reducing dependence on Humira, visibility on non-Humira portfolio, coupled with high dividend yield and attractive valuation make it a top...

Tina Banerjee

Biogen Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Biogen has been going through a rough patch off-late. One of its core drugs, Tecifidera's revenue continued to erode in the U.S. due to generic...

Baptista Research

Amgen Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Amgen has continued to benefit from strong global demand for many of their innovative medicines, such as Repatha and Prolia, as well as their...

Baptista Research

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