Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100<ul><li>Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…</li><li>DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by now</li><li>As per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleep</li><li>Jun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a week</li><li>WK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event</li></ul>

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by nowAs per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleepJun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a weekWK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

After a weak 3Q16 commented on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bharti-infratel-margin-squeeze-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2826">Bharti Infratel: Margin Squeeze Coming?</a> the latest 4Q16 numbers from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/953" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953">Bharti Airtel Ltd</a> (BHIN) showed an improvement in underlying margins of 40bps. The out-performance was driven largely by a rise in low quality energy revenues and improving energy margins. We have been disappointed by the 60bps rise in margins at a time when the sharing factor has risen 0.08x (+3.6% YoY) to 2.20x and additional equipment loading should have boosted ARPUs. To become more…

After a weak 3Q16 commented on in Bharti Infratel: Margin Squeeze Coming? the latest 4Q16 numbers from Bharti Airtel Ltd (BHIN) showed an improvement in underlying margins of 40bps. The out-performance was driven largely by a rise in low quality energy revenues and improving energy margins. We have been disappointed by the 60bps rise in margins at a time when the sharing factor has risen 0.08x (+3.6% YoY) to 2.20x and additional equipment loading should have boosted ARPUs. To become more…

Bharti Infratel: Margin Improvement Not Enough to Change Our Bearish View.

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

For the past several years, the U.S. Department of Labor (the “DOL”) has been in the process of revising the “investment advice” regulations that govern “fiduciary” status under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”). Revising these ERISA rules has been a high priority of President Obama’s administration for quite some time, and was the centerpiece of a policy speech by the President on February 23, 2015. These rules had not been meaningfully revised since 1975, notwithstanding the dramatic shift in the retirement market from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans (such as “401(k)” plans) and individual retirement accounts (“IRAs”).

For the past several years, the U.S. Department of Labor (the “DOL”) has been in the process of revising the “investment advice” regulations that govern “fiduciary” status under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”). Revising these ERISA rules has been a high priority of President Obama’s administration for quite some time, and was the centerpiece of a policy speech by the President on February 23, 2015. These rules had not been meaningfully revised since 1975, notwithstanding the dramatic shift in the retirement market from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans (such as “401(k)” plans) and individual retirement accounts (“IRAs”).

The Brave New Fiduciary World Has Arrived - Has the Department of Labor Found a More Ideal Balance?

<ul>
<li>There has been buzz in the tax and private equity communities about the rise in audits of private equity firms by the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”).</li>
<li>This has been fuelled by the restructuring of the IRS’ Large Business &amp; International group, a report by the Government Accountability Office analyzing IRS audits of “large” partnerships, and public statements by IRS officials of the IRS’ intent to apply more resources to audits of partnerships, “mid-market” companies and high net worth…</li>
</ul>


There has been buzz in the tax and private equity communities about the rise in audits of private equity firms by the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”).
This has been fuelled by the restructuring of the IRS’ Large Business &amp; International group, a report by the Government Accountability Office analyzing IRS audits of “large” partnerships, and public statements by IRS officials of the IRS’ intent to apply more resources to audits of partnerships, “mid-market” companies and high net worth…


Partnership Audits of Private Equity Firms on the Rise

United States

American Tower Corp. is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops wireless communications and broadcast towers in the United States. The Company leases antennae sites on multi-tenant towers for a diverse range of wireless communications industries, including personal communications services, paging, and cellular.

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American Tower (AMT US)

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100 Again its all about the US Dollar & upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters… DXY at 95.52...

Kay Van-Petersen

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing. ...

Greg Gibbs

Bharti Infratel: Margin Improvement Not Enough to Change Our Bearish View.

After a weak 3Q16 commented on in Bharti Infratel: Margin Squeeze Coming? the latest 4Q16 numbers from Bharti Airtel Ltd (BHIN) showed an...

New Street Research

The Brave New Fiduciary World Has Arrived - Has the Department of Labor Found a More Ideal Balance?

For the past several years, the U.S. Department of Labor (the “DOL”) has been in the process of revising the “investment advice” regulations that...

Dechert LLP

Partnership Audits of Private Equity Firms on the Rise

There has been buzz in the tax and private equity communities about the rise in audits of private equity firms by the Internal Revenue Service...

Dechert LLP

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