Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

American Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>American Financial Group's (AFG) third quarter of 2024 showcased a blend of strong performance and challenges within its operations.</li><li>The company's annualized third quarter core operating return on equity was marked at 16%.</li><li>This reflects a robust performance amidst the complexities of rising cat losses and fluctuating reserve developments.</li></ul>

American Financial Group's (AFG) third quarter of 2024 showcased a blend of strong performance and challenges within its operations.The company's annualized third quarter core operating return on equity was marked at 16%.This reflects a robust performance amidst the complexities of rising cat losses and fluctuating reserve developments.

How American Financial Group's Specialty P&C Business is Crushing Challenges & Driving Profits! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>American Financial Group delivered a mixed performance in their second quarter of 2024, reflecting strength in several areas alongside areas of strategic pullback.</li><li>The company reported an 18.5% annualized core operating return on equity, denoting a robust utilization of equity in achieving profits.</li><li>Their specialty property and casualty (P&C) businesses continued to show strength with underwriting margins outperforming expectations due to higher rates, driving a 15% year-over-year increase in P&C net investment income excluding alternatives.</li></ul>

American Financial Group delivered a mixed performance in their second quarter of 2024, reflecting strength in several areas alongside areas of strategic pullback.The company reported an 18.5% annualized core operating return on equity, denoting a robust utilization of equity in achieving profits.Their specialty property and casualty (P&C) businesses continued to show strength with underwriting margins outperforming expectations due to higher rates, driving a 15% year-over-year increase in P&C net investment income excluding alternatives.

American Financial Group: A Bear's Perspective! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>American Financial Group exhibited a solid performance in the first quarter of 2024, delivering an operating return on equity of 20%, with net written premiums increasing by 8% year-over-year.</li><li>Co CEOs Carl and Craig Lindner credited the organization's specialty insurance operations and investment strategies for its continued success over the competition, underscoring the company's disciplined operating philosophy and effective management of their investment portfolio.</li><li>During the quarter, American Financial Group reported core net operating earnings of $2.76 per share, indicating a decrease from the previous year, largely due to a reduced return on the company's alternative investment portfolio compared to its exceptional performance the prior year.</li></ul>

American Financial Group exhibited a solid performance in the first quarter of 2024, delivering an operating return on equity of 20%, with net written premiums increasing by 8% year-over-year.Co CEOs Carl and Craig Lindner credited the organization's specialty insurance operations and investment strategies for its continued success over the competition, underscoring the company's disciplined operating philosophy and effective management of their investment portfolio.During the quarter, American Financial Group reported core net operating earnings of $2.76 per share, indicating a decrease from the previous year, largely due to a reduced return on the company's alternative investment portfolio compared to its exceptional performance the prior year.

American Financial Group Inc. (AFG): Initiation of Coverage -  Strong Market Position in Specialty Insurance & Other Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

<ul>
<li>Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).</li>
<li>The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.</li>
<li>Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish</li>
</ul>


Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish


Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

United States

American Financial Group, Inc. provides multi-line property and casualty insurance.  The Company also sells tax-deferred annuities and certain life and supplemental health insurance products.  American Financial operates in the United States.

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American Financial Group (AFG US)

How American Financial Group's Specialty P&C Business is Crushing Challenges & Driving Profits! - Major Drivers

American Financial Group's (AFG) third quarter of 2024 showcased a blend of strong performance and challenges within its operations. The company's...

Baptista Research

American Financial Group: A Bear's Perspective! - Major Drivers

American Financial Group delivered a mixed performance in their second quarter of 2024, reflecting strength in several areas alongside areas of...

Baptista Research

American Financial Group Inc. (AFG): Initiation of Coverage - Strong Market Position in Specialty Insurance & Other Major Drivers

American Financial Group exhibited a solid performance in the first quarter of 2024, delivering an operating return on equity of 20%, with net...

Baptista Research

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Upgrading Real Estate $XLRE $VNQ and Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals as $SPX, $COMP Take a Pause;...

Vermilion Research

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