Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

Value investing legend Warren Buffett's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1044" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (A US)</a> surprised the investment community when the company revealed new investments in US airlines last November. Observers were even more surprised when a February filing revealed that Buffett had increased the company's airline investments during Q4 (despite Buffett's past criticisms of the industry). Why did Warren Buffett begin buying US airlines last year, after decades of avoiding the industry (and advising other investors to do the same)? And what, if anything, can we learn if we attempt to apply Buffett's investment rationale to China's state-owned airlines?

Value investing legend Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (A US) surprised the investment community when the company revealed new investments in US airlines last November. Observers were even more surprised when a February filing revealed that Buffett had increased the company's airline investments during Q4 (despite Buffett's past criticisms of the industry). Why did Warren Buffett begin buying US airlines last year, after decades of avoiding the industry (and advising other investors to do the same)? And what, if anything, can we learn if we attempt to apply Buffett's investment rationale to China's state-owned airlines?

Viewing Chinese Airlines Through Warren Buffett's Eyes (Seriously!)

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DFRS Port Operators - Signs of recovery ?Full-year growth at sample ports in most world regions was modest in 2016, averaging just over 2% globally, but the fourth quarter showed a marked uptick almost across the board, suggesting signs of a recovery. North America and Southeast Asia led the way, with sample ports growing on average by around 7% in the quarter, and major transhipment hubs worldwide also saw the benefit.<ul><li>
Strong growth in fourth-quarter 2016 was observed in a number of transhipment…</li></ul>

DFRS Port Operators - Signs of recovery ?Full-year growth at sample ports in most world regions was modest in 2016, averaging just over 2% globally, but the fourth quarter showed a marked uptick almost across the board, suggesting signs of a recovery. North America and Southeast Asia led the way, with sample ports growing on average by around 7% in the quarter, and major transhipment hubs worldwide also saw the benefit.
Strong growth in fourth-quarter 2016 was observed in a number of transhipment…

DFRS Port Operators - Signs of Recovery ?

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul>
<li>There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).</li>
<li>Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.</li>
</ul>We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…


There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).
Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.
Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.
We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return <ul><li>Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. </li><li>For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. </li><li>We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. </li></ul>

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. 

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baltic-dry-it-s-that-time-of-year-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7951">Baltic Dry - It’s That Time of Year Again</a> suggesting...<blockquote>
Looking back at the first graph tells you so. Historically, we'd expect to trend downward from here. The last ten years have an average and median drop in the BDIY of 27% in the last 18 days of the Chinese Lunar New Year. 
It should not be a surprise to see such a move in the next 18 trading days. 
Likewise, it would not be a surprise to see a bounce afterward. 
</blockquote>That insight suggested that…

At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece called Baltic Dry - It’s That Time of Year Again suggesting...
Looking back at the first graph tells you so. Historically, we'd expect to trend downward from here. The last ten years have an average and median drop in the BDIY of 27% in the last 18 days of the Chinese Lunar New Year. 
It should not be a surprise to see such a move in the next 18 trading days. 
Likewise, it would not be a surprise to see a bounce afterward. 
That insight suggested that…

Baltic Dry - Post CNY Bounce Pattern Intact (& Soybean Season Ahead)

United States

American Airlines Group Inc. operates an airline that provides scheduled passenger, freight, and mail service throughout North America, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, and the Pacific.  The Company also provides connecting service throughout the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean.

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American Airlines Group (AAL US)

Viewing Chinese Airlines Through Warren Buffett's Eyes (Seriously!)

Value investing legend Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (A US) surprised the investment community when the company revealed new...

Daniel Hellberg

DFRS Port Operators - Signs of Recovery ?

DFRS Port Operators - Signs of recovery ?Full-year growth at sample ports in most world regions was modest in 2016, averaging just over 2%...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again). Global reflation trade over next few...

Johannes Salim, CFA

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Baltic Dry - Post CNY Bounce Pattern Intact (& Soybean Season Ahead)

At the beginning of the year, I wrote a piece called Baltic Dry - It’s That Time of Year Again suggesting... Looking back at the first graph tells...

Travis Lundy

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