Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There were some fears that e-commerce growth would stall following massive consumer adoption after March 2020 but for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> at least, repeat customers have helped sustain momentum. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> had a trickier start to the year, however. Last year, excluding the big convenience stores, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> overtook Fast Retailing to become Japan’s third largest retailer and one of just four with sales over ¥2 trillion and  accounted for 3.2% of all retail sales in Nikkei’s survey of 488 companies.Despite early, pessimistic forecasts for e-commerce in 2020, METI’s latest annual survey released in July shows that BtoC e-commerce surged 21.7% to ¥12.23 trillion.

There were some fears that e-commerce growth would stall following massive consumer adoption after March 2020 but for Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) at least, repeat customers have helped sustain momentum. Z Holdings (4689 JP) had a trickier start to the year, however. Last year, excluding the big convenience stores, Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) overtook Fast Retailing to become Japan’s third largest retailer and one of just four with sales over ¥2 trillion and  accounted for 3.2% of all retail sales in Nikkei’s survey of 488 companies.Despite early, pessimistic forecasts for e-commerce in 2020, METI’s latest annual survey released in July shows that BtoC e-commerce surged 21.7% to ¥12.23 trillion.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Capital Markets

FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO. Nykaa is a lifestyle focussed e-commerce platform and consumer brand offering a portfolio of beauty, personal care and fashion products, including its own branded products. As per RedSeer, it was the largest Specialty Beauty and Personal Care Platform in India in terms of value of products sold in FY21.As of March 21, it had 43.7m cumulative downloads across all its mobile applications. Its offline channel comprises 73 physical stores across 38 cities in India. It reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of INR40,459.8m (around US$550m) in FY21. As of Mar 21, it offered approximately 2.0m SKUs from 3,826 national and international brands across its business verticals. Nykaa’s GMV, revenue and gross profit have more than doubled over FY19-21, even though the company suffered from a drop in orders due to COVID-19 in 4Q20 and 1Q21. Overall, GMV grew by 62.7% in FY20 and 50.7% in FY21. Revenue growth has broadly kept pace with GMV growth while the company has managed to turn a profit in FY21. However, the growth for its largest segment, beauty and personal care, appears to have slowed down in FY21. While its fashion segment is operated as a marketplace and hence, won’t be a big driver of revenue growth till it scales.

FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO. Nykaa is a lifestyle focussed e-commerce platform and consumer brand offering a portfolio of beauty, personal care and fashion products, including its own branded products. As per RedSeer, it was the largest Specialty Beauty and Personal Care Platform in India in terms of value of products sold in FY21.As of March 21, it had 43.7m cumulative downloads across all its mobile applications. Its offline channel comprises 73 physical stores across 38 cities in India. It reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of INR40,459.8m (around US$550m) in FY21. As of Mar 21, it offered approximately 2.0m SKUs from 3,826 national and international brands across its business verticals. Nykaa’s GMV, revenue and gross profit have more than doubled over FY19-21, even though the company suffered from a drop in orders due to COVID-19 in 4Q20 and 1Q21. Overall, GMV grew by 62.7% in FY20 and 50.7% in FY21. Revenue growth has broadly kept pace with GMV growth while the company has managed to turn a profit in FY21. However, the growth for its largest segment, beauty and personal care, appears to have slowed down in FY21. While its fashion segment is operated as a marketplace and hence, won’t be a big driver of revenue growth till it scales.

FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Pre-IPO - Mixed Bag - Fashion Growing, Beauty Slowing

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

We spoke to the store manager of Reliance Digital, an electronics retailer part of Reliance Retail, a wholly-owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> and a store of Tata Croma, also an electronics retailer part of Infiniti Retail, a subsidiary of the Tata Group.
Our objective was to understand the current operating environment and consumer sentiment especially now due to the onset of the festive season in India.

We spoke to the store manager of Reliance Digital, an electronics retailer part of Reliance Retail, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries (RIL IN) and a store of Tata Croma, also an electronics retailer part of Infiniti Retail, a subsidiary of the Tata Group.
Our objective was to understand the current operating environment and consumer sentiment especially now due to the onset of the festive season in India. 

India Channel Insight | Reliance Digital, Tata Croma (Electronics Retailers)

Equity Bottom-Up

AU Small Finance Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

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In the postcard series, our objective is to understand the macro environment shaping India and to assess the on-ground progress on its ambitious plan to reach USD 5 trillion from the current USD 2.7 trillion economy.
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In this Postcard, we present our key takeaways from the interactions in Jaisalmer, a tourist hotspot in the state of Rajasthan.
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In the postcard series, our objective is to understand the macro environment shaping India and to assess the on-ground progress on its ambitious plan to reach USD 5 trillion from the current USD 2.7 trillion economy.


In this Postcard, we present our key takeaways from the interactions in Jaisalmer, a tourist hotspot in the state of Rajasthan.


Postcard from Jaisalmer | Changing Consumers, Shifting Gears

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Japanese E-Commerce Growth Continues

Japan is well-known for lagging some markets in e-commerce penetration but sales surged last year to more than 20%. Only Rakuten and Amazon seem to...

Michael Causton

FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa) Pre-IPO - Mixed Bag - Fashion Growing, Beauty Slowing

FSN E-commerce (Nykaa) aims to raise around US$550m, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Indian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

India Channel Insight | Reliance Digital, Tata Croma (Electronics Retailers)

We spoke to the store manager of Reliance Digital, Tata Croma, to understand the current operating environment and consumer sentiment especially...

Pranav Bhavsar

Postcard from Jaisalmer | Changing Consumers, Shifting Gears

In this Postcard, we present our key takeaways from the interactions in Jaisalmer, a tourist hotspot in the state of Rajasthan.

Pranav Bhavsar

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