Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q24 core profit was lower than expected due to lower land transfer prices in Thailand, which is believed to be a short-term impact, as land prices for current sales have been gradually increasing.</li><li>In addition, presales are expected to remain robust over the next two years, supported by rising investments and production base relocations.</li><li>AMATA’s core profit is thus projected to grow at an 18% CAGR, outpacing the industry.</li></ul>

4Q24 core profit was lower than expected due to lower land transfer prices in Thailand, which is believed to be a short-term impact, as land prices for current sales have been gradually increasing.In addition, presales are expected to remain robust over the next two years, supported by rising investments and production base relocations.AMATA’s core profit is thus projected to grow at an 18% CAGR, outpacing the industry.

Amata Corporation - 4Q24 Earnings 25% Below Forecast

<ul><li>We expect 4Q24E core profit to show robust YoY and QoQ growth, with continued expansion in 2025E, driven by higher-than- expected presales and transfers, reaching a new high since 2012.</li><li>As a result, we have revised up our 2025-26E profit forecasts by 17% and 7%, respectively, leading to a two-year core earnings CAGR of +11%, in line with the industry.</li><li>We upgrade our rating to Outperform (previously Neutral) with a new fair value of Bt35.00, based on a required return of 8.1% (previously Bt25.30 and 9.1%).</li></ul>

We expect 4Q24E core profit to show robust YoY and QoQ growth, with continued expansion in 2025E, driven by higher-than- expected presales and transfers, reaching a new high since 2012.As a result, we have revised up our 2025-26E profit forecasts by 17% and 7%, respectively, leading to a two-year core earnings CAGR of +11%, in line with the industry.We upgrade our rating to Outperform (previously Neutral) with a new fair value of Bt35.00, based on a required return of 8.1% (previously Bt25.30 and 9.1%).

AMATA CORPORATION - Outstanding 4Q24E Profit Growth; 2025E Transfers to Hit a New High

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.</li><li>There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.</li><li>A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

<ul><li>Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.</li><li>We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).</li><li>However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. </li></ul>

Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. 

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.</li><li>While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

Thailand

Amata Corporation Public Company Limited develops industrial estates primarily served for manufacturing plants and factories. The Company acquires land and develops essential infrastructure and facilities ready for industrialized operations. Ameta also has overseas investments in Vietnam.

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Amata Corp Public (AMATA TB)

Amata Corporation - 4Q24 Earnings 25% Below Forecast

4Q24 core profit was lower than expected due to lower land transfer prices in Thailand, which is believed to be a short-term impact, as land prices...

Krungthai XSpring

AMATA CORPORATION - Outstanding 4Q24E Profit Growth; 2025E Transfers to Hit a New High

We expect 4Q24E core profit to show robust YoY and QoQ growth, with continued expansion in 2025E, driven by higher-than- expected presales and...

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of...

Krungthai XSpring

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

The current valuation indicates downside of approximately -11% alongside very limited upside tactically. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.

Krungthai XSpring

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