Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.</li><li>We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).</li><li>However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. </li></ul>

Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. 

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.</li><li>While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

<ul><li>KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected to have grown well YoY.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the long-term earnings prospects are strong; however, the tactical upside is very limited.</li><li>We therefore maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt28.30 (vs. Bt28.00 previously), based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 8% following the adjustment to the beta (in line with the adjustments to our macroeconomic variables).</li></ul>

KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected to have grown well YoY.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the long-term earnings prospects are strong; however, the tactical upside is very limited.We therefore maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt28.30 (vs. Bt28.00 previously), based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 8% following the adjustment to the beta (in line with the adjustments to our macroeconomic variables).

Amata Corporation - Expect 2Q24E Earnings to Increase YoY; Possible Upside to Presales

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on AMATA with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt28.00, based on a required return of 7.9% (reflecting a PER target of 12.6x).</li><li>Presales will remain high at 1.7k and 1.6k rai in the next one to two years as a positive outcome of geopolitical risks and increased US tariffs in 2024-26E, encouraging production base relocations toward ASEAN.</li><li>In addition, AMATA has a huge backlog worth Bt14bn, expected to equate to land sales of 2.4k rai. This should help boost transfers and core profit growth going forward.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on AMATA with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt28.00, based on a required return of 7.9% (reflecting a PER target of 12.6x).Presales will remain high at 1.7k and 1.6k rai in the next one to two years as a positive outcome of geopolitical risks and increased US tariffs in 2024-26E, encouraging production base relocations toward ASEAN.In addition, AMATA has a huge backlog worth Bt14bn, expected to equate to land sales of 2.4k rai. This should help boost transfers and core profit growth going forward.

Amata Corporation - High Presales and Backlog Lead to Consistent Growth in Core Profit

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray</li>
<li>Ince inception, it has gained 112% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 24%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
Ince inception, it has gained 112% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 24%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 46

Thailand

Amata Corporation Public Company Limited develops industrial estates primarily served for manufacturing plants and factories. The Company acquires land and develops essential infrastructure and facilities ready for industrialized operations. Ameta also has overseas investments in Vietnam.

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Amata Corp Public (AMATA TB)

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

The current valuation indicates downside of approximately -11% alongside very limited upside tactically. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Expect 2Q24E Earnings to Increase YoY; Possible Upside to Presales

KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected...

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - High Presales and Backlog Lead to Consistent Growth in Core Profit

We initiate our coverage on AMATA with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt28.00, based on a required return of 7.9% (reflecting a PER target of...

Krungthai XSpring

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 46

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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