Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Internet advertising revenue growth has come in below expectations for Google, Meta and CyberAgent as ad budgets appear to be shrinking</li>
<li>There is an indirect read-across to Z Holdings which has almost always posted slower ad growth although it has some insulation from volatility with eCommerce and LINE official accounts</li>
<li>Sill, management targets for ad revenue growth of 5-10% look increasingly challenging which is an issue when Media generates c. 80% of profitability. We remain cautious</li>
</ul>


Internet advertising revenue growth has come in below expectations for Google, Meta and CyberAgent as ad budgets appear to be shrinking
There is an indirect read-across to Z Holdings which has almost always posted slower ad growth although it has some insulation from volatility with eCommerce and LINE official accounts
Sill, management targets for ad revenue growth of 5-10% look increasingly challenging which is an issue when Media generates c. 80% of profitability. We remain cautious


Z Holdings (Neutral) - Quick Thoughts on the Read Across from Google, Meta, and CyberAgent

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!</li>
<li>Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.</li>
<li>Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!</li>
</ul>


How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!
Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.
Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Google will invest $735mn (¥105bn) through 2023 on Japan infrastructure including its first local data center and additional subsea capacity</li>
<li>The Google CEO met with Prime Minister Kishida and the announcement scores political points but it also makes sense with a material JP business and the weak yen</li>
<li>Google is probably Japan's largest Internet advertising company with an estimated ¥685bn in FY21 sales</li>
</ul>


Google will invest $735mn (¥105bn) through 2023 on Japan infrastructure including its first local data center and additional subsea capacity
The Google CEO met with Prime Minister Kishida and the announcement scores political points but it also makes sense with a material JP business and the weak yen
Google is probably Japan's largest Internet advertising company with an estimated ¥685bn in FY21 sales


Google in Japan - Infrastructure Investments Highlight Japan Growth and Forex Shift

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duolingo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33531:1" rel="noopener">Duolingo (DUOL US)</a>  reported solid 2QFY22 results and hosted annual Duocon 2022 event in August. Management raised full-year revenue guidance, but the stock remained range bound. </li>
<li>We model total revenues growing +45% y/y to $365M in FY22 and +42% y/y to $517M in FY23, up vs. our prior estimates and projections. </li>
<li>2QFY22 results beat all key estimates, driven by accelerating user growth and strength across the entire business. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duolingo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33531:1" rel="noopener">Duolingo (DUOL US)</a>  remains our top mid-cap pick in the EdTech industry.</li>
</ul>



Duolingo (DUOL US)  reported solid 2QFY22 results and hosted annual Duocon 2022 event in August. Management raised full-year revenue guidance, but the stock remained range bound. 
We model total revenues growing +45% y/y to $365M in FY22 and +42% y/y to $517M in FY23, up vs. our prior estimates and projections. 
2QFY22 results beat all key estimates, driven by accelerating user growth and strength across the entire business. Duolingo (DUOL US)  remains our top mid-cap pick in the EdTech industry.


Duolingo. User Growth And Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Management Raised FY22 Guidance

<ul>
<li>Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.</li>
<li>Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.</li>
<li>AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.</li>
</ul>


Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.
Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.


Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOGL US)

Z Holdings (Neutral) - Quick Thoughts on the Read Across from Google, Meta, and CyberAgent

Industry ad revenue growth has disappointed which could put Z Holding's target of 5-10% growth at risk. Unique exposure to eCommerce monetization...

Kirk Boodry

Snap 3Q22: Tik Tik Tik (Tok) …BOOM

3rd 30% drop in a year? Any glimmer of hope? Still growing user base...but US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal...

Aaron Gabin

Google in Japan - Infrastructure Investments Highlight Japan Growth and Forex Shift

Increased investment in Japan makes sense as its business is growing and the dollar has strengthened. In-country facilities should mean better...

Kirk Boodry

Duolingo. User Growth And Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Management Raised FY22 Guidance

Duolingo remains our top mid-cap pick in EdTech, and we believe the company’s growth profile of generating 40%+ organic growth is underappreciated...

Andrei Zakharov

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Amazon's revenue growth is beginning to reaccelerate. Its cost growth is decelerating. Advertising is the best house in a tough digital...

Aaron Gabin

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