TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>An old saying in stock investing is wait three days after a blowup to buy. OK…well Snap blew up 10 days ago…and Facebook last week. So, which to buy? Well, go buy Google first. It’s a better company than either Snap or Facebook, isn’t impacted by Apple’s changes, and has the more compelling growth adjusted valuation. But Snap or Facebook? We bought both.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

An old saying in stock investing is wait three days after a blowup to buy. OK…well Snap blew up 10 days ago…and Facebook last week. So, which to buy? Well, go buy Google first. It’s a better company than either Snap or Facebook, isn’t impacted by Apple’s changes, and has the more compelling growth adjusted valuation. But Snap or Facebook? We bought both.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<p>Supply constraints. Wage inflation. People shopping in stores. Fixed cost develeraging.</p><p>In 4Q20, Amazon earned $3.3B in EBIT for its retail businesses (NA + International). Amazon guided for $0–$3B in EBIT in 4Q21. If we assume the midpoint of Amazon’s guidance of $1.5B and subtract out the ~$10.5B in profits we expect from AWS and Amazon’s Advertising in 4Q21, that implies Retail is going to lose $9B (!!) in 4Q21. Amazon counts its ads business’ profitability within retail. We presume the Ad business has ~50% EBIT margins…which means this quarter Ads generated $4B in profits, while overall retail was breakeven on GAAP EBIT, meaning core retail lost $4B. Meaning, Amazon will have lost $13B in retail over the 2<sup>nd</sup> half of 2021. That is a staggering number. That only Amazon can absorb. And only Amazon will walk into 2022 with its already fortress retail moat stacked $13B higher than competitors can match. While a good amount of the $13B in losses are structural (wage inflation for instance), A LOT are also transitory…which means 2022 should see some significant operating leverage. THIS is when you invest in Amazon.</p><p> Amazon is our Top 2022 long idea. We think its worth $6,000.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Supply constraints. Wage inflation. People shopping in stores. Fixed cost develeraging.In 4Q20, Amazon earned $3.3B in EBIT for its retail businesses (NA + International). Amazon guided for $0–$3B in EBIT in 4Q21. If we assume the midpoint of Amazon’s guidance of $1.5B and subtract out the ~$10.5B in profits we expect from AWS and Amazon’s Advertising in 4Q21, that implies Retail is going to lose $9B (!!) in 4Q21. Amazon counts its ads business’ profitability within retail. We presume the Ad business has ~50% EBIT margins…which means this quarter Ads generated $4B in profits, while overall retail was breakeven on GAAP EBIT, meaning core retail lost $4B. Meaning, Amazon will have lost $13B in retail over the 2nd half of 2021. That is a staggering number. That only Amazon can absorb. And only Amazon will walk into 2022 with its already fortress retail moat stacked $13B higher than competitors can match. While a good amount of the $13B in losses are structural (wage inflation for instance), A LOT are also transitory…which means 2022 should see some significant operating leverage. THIS is when you invest in Amazon. Amazon is our Top 2022 long idea. We think its worth $6,000.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Amazon 3Q21: 4Q’s $9 Billion Consumer Shock Absorber

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/truecaller-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34462:1" rel="noopener">Truecaller AB (TRUEB SS)</a>  is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range at SEK 44.00-56.00 per Class B share, implying a market cap of ~19.6B SEK or ~$2.2B at midpoint of the price range on a fully diluted basis. The book-building procedure began on September 29 and continues until October 7. Truecaller’s Class B shares are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq Stockholm under the trading symbol “TRUE” on October 8. Carnegie Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup Global Markets are joint global coordinators on the upcoming offering.      </p>

Truecaller AB (TRUEB SS)  is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range at SEK 44.00-56.00 per Class B share, implying a market cap of ~19.6B SEK or ~$2.2B at midpoint of the price range on a fully diluted basis. The book-building procedure began on September 29 and continues until October 7. Truecaller’s Class B shares are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq Stockholm under the trading symbol “TRUE” on October 8. Carnegie Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup Global Markets are joint global coordinators on the upcoming offering.      

Truecaller IPO: Best-In-Class Caller ID And Spam Blocking App

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.</p></div><div><p>TDCX provides outsourcing services to clients in new economy sectors and traditional blue-chip clients undergoing digital transformation. As of Jun 21, it served 43 global clients and with 114 active campaigns. The firm has offices located in 10 geographies across Asia, Europe and Latin America, namely, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Japan, Spain, India, Columbia and Romania.</p></div><div><p>TDCX has recorded very strong growth with revenue, EBITDA and PAT having increased by 2.5x over FY18-20. In addition, Facebook and Airbnb, combined, contributed 60.4% and 62.3% of TDCX’s total revenue for FY20 and 1H21. </p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tdcx-inc-pre-ipo-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tdcx-inc-pre-ipo-past-growth-looks-good-the-rest-is-iffy-including-the-founders-s-325m-payout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Past Growth Looks Good, the Rest Is Iffy, Including the Founders S$325m Payout</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note we will talk about valuations</p></div>

TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.TDCX provides outsourcing services to clients in new economy sectors and traditional blue-chip clients undergoing digital transformation. As of Jun 21, it served 43 global clients and with 114 active campaigns. The firm has offices located in 10 geographies across Asia, Europe and Latin America, namely, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Japan, Spain, India, Columbia and Romania.TDCX has recorded very strong growth with revenue, EBITDA and PAT having increased by 2.5x over FY18-20. In addition, Facebook and Airbnb, combined, contributed 60.4% and 62.3% of TDCX’s total revenue for FY20 and 1H21. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO Tearsheet and TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Past Growth Looks Good, the Rest Is Iffy, Including the Founders S$325m Payout.In this note we will talk about valuations

TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Largest Client Is Growing Faster and Trading Cheaper

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.</p><p>UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.</p><p>Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.</p><p>Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.</p><p>German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.</p><p>Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.</p>

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOGL US)

Do You Buy Snap or Facebook or Both?

Snapchat blew up on earnings last week, Facebook followed. We think both merit buying; Snapchat will revert to 50%+ growth, while Facebook is too...

Aaron Gabin

Amazon 3Q21: 4Q’s $9 Billion Consumer Shock Absorber

Supply constraints. Wage inflation. People shopping in stores. Fixed cost develeraging. Amazon's retail business will lose $13B in 2H21. 2022...

Aaron Gabin

Truecaller IPO: Best-In-Class Caller ID And Spam Blocking App

Swedish caller identification and spam-call blocker unicorn Truecaller filed for an IPO on Nasdaq Stockholm and plans to raise more than $100M this...

Andrei Zakharov

TDCX Inc. Pre-IPO - Largest Client Is Growing Faster and Trading Cheaper

TDCX Inc, a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, is looking to raise up to US$338m in its upcoming US IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

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