HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The entire R&amp;D cycle involves multi-party cooperation, leveraging one's strengths. So, it is not difficult to understand some of the choices made by domestic pharmaceutical companies (e.g. Innovent, BeiGene).</li>
<li>Due to outdated technology, investment value of Sirnaomics is low, which means the likelihood of the company being acquired is also not high. We remain conservative about the outlook. </li>
<li>ImmuneOnco's stock price has performed much better-than-expected after IPO on HKEX. However, the endgame of ImmuneOnco’s market value could be only about RMB1.5 billion, which means large potential downside ahead.</li>
</ul>


The entire R&amp;D cycle involves multi-party cooperation, leveraging one's strengths. So, it is not difficult to understand some of the choices made by domestic pharmaceutical companies (e.g. Innovent, BeiGene).
Due to outdated technology, investment value of Sirnaomics is low, which means the likelihood of the company being acquired is also not high. We remain conservative about the outlook. 
ImmuneOnco's stock price has performed much better-than-expected after IPO on HKEX. However, the endgame of ImmuneOnco’s market value could be only about RMB1.5 billion, which means large potential downside ahead.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.12) - Mainstream R&D Trend, Innovent, BeiGene, Sirnaomics, ImmuneOnco

<ul>
<li>BeiGene performed well in 23Q3. Product sales maintained strong growth momentum. Together with effective cost control measures, net loss significantly narrowed (close to breakeven), which exceeds expectation.</li>
<li>BeiGene plans to rely primarily on BRUKINSA/tislelizumab to achieve breakeven, which means BRUKINSA needs to contribute about US$2 billion revenue. Given prescriptions volume, however, Astrazeneca’s Calquence is the biggest holdup.</li>
<li>Whether BeiGene's overall revenue can reach US$4 billion is the key point of marginal change in logic. How to further reduce SG&amp;A/R&amp;D expenses has become important topic at this stage.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene performed well in 23Q3. Product sales maintained strong growth momentum. Together with effective cost control measures, net loss significantly narrowed (close to breakeven), which exceeds expectation.
BeiGene plans to rely primarily on BRUKINSA/tislelizumab to achieve breakeven, which means BRUKINSA needs to contribute about US$2 billion revenue. Given prescriptions volume, however, Astrazeneca’s Calquence is the biggest holdup.
Whether BeiGene's overall revenue can reach US$4 billion is the key point of marginal change in logic. How to further reduce SG&amp;A/R&amp;D expenses has become important topic at this stage.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

<ul>
<li>BeiGene maintained strong product sales in 23H1 and its net loss continued to narrow. This means that BeiGene has realized the cost control problem and entered a healthy growth phase.</li>
<li>Our revenue forecast indicates BeiGene is approaching the minimum threshold for turning losses into profits. A more likely scenario is revenue need to reach over US$4 billion to be breakeven</li>
<li>However, regardless of the calculation, BeiGene ‘s valuation is still unreasonably high. Its potential/certainty is nowhere near that of Alnylam. Maintaining sustained high growth is not easy because "accidents" remain.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene maintained strong product sales in 23H1 and its net loss continued to narrow. This means that BeiGene has realized the cost control problem and entered a healthy growth phase.
Our revenue forecast indicates BeiGene is approaching the minimum threshold for turning losses into profits. A more likely scenario is revenue need to reach over US$4 billion to be breakeven
However, regardless of the calculation, BeiGene ‘s valuation is still unreasonably high. Its potential/certainty is nowhere near that of Alnylam. Maintaining sustained high growth is not easy because "accidents" remain.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA, which delivered a 48% increase compared to the same quarter last year.</li><li>Their TTR franchise showed strong performance with solid net product revenues and patient growth, driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA.</li><li>We give Alnylam Pharmaceuticals a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA, which delivered a 48% increase compared to the same quarter last year.Their TTR franchise showed strong performance with solid net product revenues and patient growth, driven by the ongoing launch of AMVUTTRA.We give Alnylam Pharmaceuticals a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: Commercialization of RNAi Therapeutics & Other Developments

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

United States

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. is an early-stage therapeutics company. The Company is developing technology that can specifically and potently silence disease-causing genes.

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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.12) - Mainstream R&D Trend, Innovent, BeiGene, Sirnaomics, ImmuneOnco

If we look at mainstream R&D trend, the choices made by companies like Innovent/BeiGene are reasonable. Investment value of Sirnaomics is low....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

BeiGene’s 23Q3 results exceed expectation as the Company is close to breakeven. Total revenue of US$4 billion is the next 'fortress' for BeiGene to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

BeiGene's financial performance starts to become healthier in 23H1. As BeiGene approaches breakeven, it's particularly crucial to avoid "accidents"...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: Commercialization of RNAi Therapeutics & Other Developments

The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of...

Baptista Research

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

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52-week Range

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.12) - Mainstream R&D Trend, Innovent, BeiGene, Sirnaomics, ImmuneOnco

If we look at mainstream R&D trend, the choices made by companies like Innovent/BeiGene are reasonable. Investment value of Sirnaomics is low....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

BeiGene’s 23Q3 results exceed expectation as the Company is close to breakeven. Total revenue of US$4 billion is the next 'fortress' for BeiGene to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

BeiGene's financial performance starts to become healthier in 23H1. As BeiGene approaches breakeven, it's particularly crucial to avoid "accidents"...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: Commercialization of RNAi Therapeutics & Other Developments

The last quarter was successful for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with solid growth in total product sales, mainly driven by the ongoing launch of...

Baptista Research

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q3 - Beautiful Story Is About to Happen

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth