Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sanken benefits from the structural growth in EVs, which should underpin revenue growth and margin accretion. </li>
<li>DCF valuation suggests the stock is slightly undervalued. However, better-than-expected revenue trends could easily drive significant upside. </li>
<li>Almost 30% of shares are held by activist investors - there is an attractive 57% upside to a SOTP valuation that could be realised over time.</li>
</ul>


Sanken benefits from the structural growth in EVs, which should underpin revenue growth and margin accretion. 
DCF valuation suggests the stock is slightly undervalued. However, better-than-expected revenue trends could easily drive significant upside. 
Almost 30% of shares are held by activist investors - there is an attractive 57% upside to a SOTP valuation that could be realised over time.


Sanken (6707)| Attractive for Activists and Growth Investors

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company.</li>
<li>I continue to like automotive, specifically semiconductors.</li>
<li>However, despite sequentially better results, we are seeing continued weakness in automotive and meaningful weakness in Industrial</li>
</ul>


Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company.
I continue to like automotive, specifically semiconductors.
However, despite sequentially better results, we are seeing continued weakness in automotive and meaningful weakness in Industrial


Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

<ul>
<li>Some more minor data points and highlights: KLIC (ball bonders) says that utilization is 75-80%, which is a good read on China despite the negative industrial headwind.</li>
<li>Allegro Microsystems is definitely scraping the bottom, and while Sanken (its distributor) is still increasing its inventory, I like the setup there.</li>
<li>Arrow Electronics (Distributor) says things are improving, which is a big counterpoint to everything else.</li>
</ul>


Some more minor data points and highlights: KLIC (ball bonders) says that utilization is 75-80%, which is a good read on China despite the negative industrial headwind.
Allegro Microsystems is definitely scraping the bottom, and while Sanken (its distributor) is still increasing its inventory, I like the setup there.
Arrow Electronics (Distributor) says things are improving, which is a big counterpoint to everything else.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The revised/final True Wind Tender Offer for up to 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> ends this week. With the "excitement" the last two weeks, the SunCorp/CLBT ratio is higher.</li>
<li>The minimum threshold is relatively low. The Tender will most likely succeed with very high pro-ration. </li>
<li>For those on the edge, I discuss possibilities on the back end. It will be less liquid, but that may not be bad.</li>
</ul>


The revised/final True Wind Tender Offer for up to 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP) ends this week. With the "excitement" the last two weeks, the SunCorp/CLBT ratio is higher.
The minimum threshold is relatively low. The Tender will most likely succeed with very high pro-ration. 
For those on the edge, I discuss possibilities on the back end. It will be less liquid, but that may not be bad.


To Tender Or Not - Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736)

<ul>
<li>On 10 June, Sun Corp subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>'s SPAC sponsor True Wind Capital launched a Tender Offer for 19% of SunCorp at a premium but discount to NAV.</li>
<li>The price was too low. CLBT shares rose. They lifted the TOB price by 8% to ¥4750. Still too low. It was trading there. Now they have lifted to ¥5500.</li>
<li>Now a 49% premium to undisturbed, 29.4% premium to all-time high prior to the first tender. Changes in terms means this could get done. More bullish than it looks.</li>
</ul>


On 10 June, Sun Corp subsidiary Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)'s SPAC sponsor True Wind Capital launched a Tender Offer for 19% of SunCorp at a premium but discount to NAV.
The price was too low. CLBT shares rose. They lifted the TOB price by 8% to ¥4750. Still too low. It was trading there. Now they have lifted to ¥5500.
Now a 49% premium to undisturbed, 29.4% premium to all-time high prior to the first tender. Changes in terms means this could get done. More bullish than it looks.


True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End

Japan

Allegro Microsystems, Inc. develops advanced semiconductor devices. The Company provides power and sensing solutions for motion control. Allegro Microsystems serves customers worldwide.

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Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM US)

Sanken (6707)| Attractive for Activists and Growth Investors

Sanken is an attractive investment for activists and growth investors alike. There is an attractive 57% upside to a SOTP valuation that could be...

Mark Chadwick

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company. I continue to like automotive,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: ALGM, LRCX, TOLEY, NVMI, ONTO

Hello, this is a slightly more relaxed week of earnings. I’m going to focus a lot on Allegro and then mention some high-level reads. I’ll keep...

Fabricated Knowledge

To Tender Or Not - Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736)

The Sun Corp Tender close nears (15 Aug). TWC is aiming to buy at least 5% but up to 19%. After recent volatility, 5% is an easier ask. But if you...

Travis Lundy

True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End

True Wind has raised its price again. Now ¥5500, above market. Rise in Price (29%) mimics rise in yen value of CLBT (27.2%). Minimum substantially...

Travis Lundy

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