Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Torrent Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torrent-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15762:1" rel="noopener">Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN)</a> reported 16% YoY revenue growth to INR26.6B in Q2FY24. Strong performance in India, Brazil, and Germany is partially offset by the revenue decline in the U.S.</li>
<li>EBITDA increased 22% YoY to INR8.3, leading to 138bps YoY expansion in margin to 31%, due to cost optimization and discontinuation of the low margin business in the U.S.</li>
<li>Initial bull thesis on the company regarding its domestic market strength is still intact. Further upside will be driven by superior performance in India and Brazil businesses and margin improvements.</li>
</ul>



Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported 16% YoY revenue growth to INR26.6B in Q2FY24. Strong performance in India, Brazil, and Germany is partially offset by the revenue decline in the U.S.
EBITDA increased 22% YoY to INR8.3, leading to 138bps YoY expansion in margin to 31%, due to cost optimization and discontinuation of the low margin business in the U.S.
Initial bull thesis on the company regarding its domestic market strength is still intact. Further upside will be driven by superior performance in India and Brazil businesses and margin improvements.


Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): Q2FY24 Result- Domestic Business Continued Solid Growth Path

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> recorded 53% YoY and 21% QoQ decline in Q1FY24 revenue to ¥75.7B, mainly due to the impact of the loss of exclusivity for Latuda in U.S.  </li>
<li>Sumitomo’s schizophrenia drug candidate ulotaront missed primary endpoints in phase 3 trial. Clinical setback on one of the two phase 3 drug candidates is quite a blow for the company.</li>
<li>Sumitomo reaffirmed FY24 guidance, which calls for revenue decline of 35% YoY to ¥362B. The company guided for adjusted operating loss of ¥62B and net loss of ¥80B in FY24.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) recorded 53% YoY and 21% QoQ decline in Q1FY24 revenue to ¥75.7B, mainly due to the impact of the loss of exclusivity for Latuda in U.S.  
Sumitomo’s schizophrenia drug candidate ulotaront missed primary endpoints in phase 3 trial. Clinical setback on one of the two phase 3 drug candidates is quite a blow for the company.
Sumitomo reaffirmed FY24 guidance, which calls for revenue decline of 35% YoY to ¥362B. The company guided for adjusted operating loss of ¥62B and net loss of ¥80B in FY24.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Pain Continues with Dwindling Sales; Trial Setback Worsens Outlook

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a>  raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma  raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

India

Alkem Laboratories Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company researches, develops, manufactures, and markets generic and branded pharmaceuticals. Alkem also provides nutraceuticals, functional foods, health foods, and herbal products.

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Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): Q2FY24 Result- Domestic Business Continued Solid Growth Path

Torrent reported 16% revenue growth in Q2, led by India, where outperformance continued due to strong growth in chronic therapies, gastro demand...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Pain Continues with Dwindling Sales; Trial Setback Worsens Outlook

In Q1FY24, Sumitomo's revenue plummeted 53% YoY to ¥76B. The company reported operating loss of ¥34B. The company’s schizophrenia drug candidate...

Tina Banerjee

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

Mankind Pharma raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand updates and the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): Q2FY24 Result- Domestic Business Continued Solid Growth Path

​Torrent reported 16% revenue growth in Q2, led by India, where outperformance continued due to strong growth in chronic therapies, gastro demand...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Pain Continues with Dwindling Sales; Trial Setback Worsens Outlook

In Q1FY24, Sumitomo's revenue plummeted 53% YoY to ¥76B. The company reported operating loss of ¥34B. The company’s schizophrenia drug candidate...

Tina Banerjee

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

Mankind Pharma raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand updates and the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Torrent reported 16% revenue growth in Q2, led by India, where outperformance continued due to strong growth in chronic therapies, gastro demand...