Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Aug 27. The aggregate short value for equities increased by $3,407m (+5.3%) WoW but decreased by $11m (-0.0%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($4,417m, -2.3% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,477m, +10.9% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($1,962m, +5.1% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,501m, -10.0% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,403m, -6.8% WoW).<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/774/original/Hong_Kong_Market_Short_Position_Value_%28line%29_and_1W_Changes_%28bar%29_%28%24m%292021-09-04+10_09_03.png?1630721631" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227774"></figure></section>

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Aug 27. The aggregate short value for equities increased by $3,407m (+5.3%) WoW but decreased by $11m (-0.0%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($4,417m, -2.3% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,477m, +10.9% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($1,962m, +5.1% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,501m, -10.0% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,403m, -6.8% WoW).

HK Short Interest: Short Spiked for Baba & JD

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> was implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. Hang Seng Indexes should announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 12 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 December.The review period for the December rebalance ends on 30 September and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>.There were 3 inclusions at the June rebalance and 3 inclusions and 1 exclusion at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents to 60.With Hang Seng Indexes looking to get up to 80 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> members by mid-2022, there could be 20 inclusions over the next 3 index rebalances.Stocks that are ranked towards the top of their Industry group and are potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29285:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>.Given that the index committee consciously avoided including stocks from sectors that were targeted by tightening regulations in China, this list will be revised closer to the index committee meeting in November. Another factor that will determine the number of inclusions is the turnover at the rebalance - while it is less than 4% now with the 10 inclusions, that number will move higher as stocks move around and there are capping changes on the largest constituents.

The September rebalance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) was implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. Hang Seng Indexes should announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 12 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 December.The review period for the December rebalance ends on 30 September and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX).There were 3 inclusions at the June rebalance and 3 inclusions and 1 exclusion at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents to 60.With Hang Seng Indexes looking to get up to 80 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) members by mid-2022, there could be 20 inclusions over the next 3 index rebalances.Stocks that are ranked towards the top of their Industry group and are potential inclusions are Smoore International (6969 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK), Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK), China Gas Holdings (384 HK), JD Health (6618 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and Fosun International (656 HK).Given that the index committee consciously avoided including stocks from sectors that were targeted by tightening regulations in China, this list will be revised closer to the index committee meeting in November. Another factor that will determine the number of inclusions is the turnover at the rebalance - while it is less than 4% now with the 10 inclusions, that number will move higher as stocks move around and there are capping changes on the largest constituents.

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Why Do They Always Do This?: At a competitor conference, management ridiculously diminished government allegations. Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] should simply answer “yes, we made mistakes and pushed the envelope but we are actively rectifying these issues. Its going to be painful for investors as we address the government's numerous over the near-term”;  
*Elephant In The Room: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets activities has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". There remains no doubt, in our view, that Tencent will follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in the formation of a financial holding company. It’s pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss this matter when financial services are the largest component of earnings and growth; and    
*Results Have Also Deteriorated As Distractions Mount: Tencent’s 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) linked quarter – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged.

*Why Do They Always Do This?: At a competitor conference, management ridiculously diminished government allegations. Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] should simply answer “yes, we made mistakes and pushed the envelope but we are actively rectifying these issues. Its going to be painful for investors as we address the government's numerous over the near-term”;  
*Elephant In The Room: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets activities has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". There remains no doubt, in our view, that Tencent will follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in the formation of a financial holding company. It’s pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss this matter when financial services are the largest component of earnings and growth; and    
*Results Have Also Deteriorated As Distractions Mount: Tencent’s 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) linked quarter – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged.       

Tencent Holdings – Incredulous Management

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

*The Hits Just Keep On Coming: Various media outlets have reported that Alibaba Holdings (BABA.US) [BABA] is planning to spend CNY 100 bn (USD 15.4 bn or nearly 2/3 of 2020 earnings) through 2025 in order to support the government's "common prosperity" initiatives – implying another significant earnings hit; and
*FHC Challenges Ahead As Well: BABA’s Ant Group subsidiary is also reorganizing as a financial holding company, and will now be regulated more along the lines of a commercial bank by the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC). As a result, Ant Financial needs to adhere to minimum CAR capital requirements, and follow other bank regulatory guidelines.

*The Hits Just Keep On Coming: Various media outlets have reported that Alibaba Holdings (BABA.US) [BABA] is planning to spend CNY 100 bn (USD 15.4 bn or nearly 2/3 of 2020 earnings) through 2025 in order to support the government's "common prosperity" initiatives – implying another significant earnings hit; and
*FHC Challenges Ahead As Well: BABA’s Ant Group subsidiary is also reorganizing as a financial holding company, and will now be regulated more along the lines of a commercial bank by the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC). As a result, Ant Financial needs to adhere to minimum CAR capital requirements, and follow other bank regulatory guidelines.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.KP began operation in Sep 2014 as a fintech division of Kakao to facilitate online payments. Ant Financial invested US$200m in the company in Feb 2017 and the division was spun out of Kakao in Apr 2017. Since spinning out, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.KP began operation in Sep 2014 as a fintech division of Kakao to facilitate online payments. Ant Financial invested US$200m in the company in Feb 2017 and the division was spun out of Kakao in Apr 2017. Since spinning out, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.

Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to Be a Mini Ant

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

HK Short Interest: Short Spiked for Baba & JD

We highlight short spikes in Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) based on the latest short aggregate position report released by Hong Kong SFC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

There could be 10 inclusions to the HSI at the Dec rebalance to help reach the 80 index member count by mid-2022. Index turnover & regulations will...

Brian Freitas

Tencent Holdings – Incredulous Management

TENCENT: At a competitor virtual conference, Tencent discussed the impact of regulatory changes but didn’t discuss its targeted financial services...

Thomas J. Monaco

Alibaba Group Holdings - Penance

ALIBABA: BABA is apparently launching a plan to spend CNY 100 bn (nearly 2/3 of 2020 earnings) by 2025 to the "common prosperity" – implying a...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to Be a Mini Ant

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao holds a...

Sumeet Singh

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