Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

The announcement of 2020 full year results is bringing some certainty to the HSCEI 2021 dividend index points. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> announcing results (and dividends) today, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> announcing on Monday and Tuesday next week, over 85% of the 2021 dividend index points will be known by end of the month.With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 8 April, potential changes to the index at the June review that will be implemented at the close on 4 June, and capping changes that will be implemented at 8% of the index weight for all stocks at the June review, the dividend ex-date for the stocks (and banks in particular) will play a big role in determining the fair value of the 2021 dividend futures.With the SEC pushing forward with the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, US listed Chinese stocks could look to bring forward their plans to Secondary List on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a> lists on Monday and media indicates that other Chinese companies are evaluating listing in Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> has already filed papers to list in Hong Kong. Then there are companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> that could primary list in Hong Kong in the near future. While this will have minimal impact on the 2021 dividends, the impact on the 2022 and later dividend futures would be a lot higher.We see little downside from the current market on the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures, but believe that the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener is trading too high. Potential changes to the index constituents should put downward pressure on the 2022 dividends with low dividend yield or zero dividend paying companies joining the index at high index weights, and high dividend paying companies being deleted from the index.

The announcement of 2020 full year results is bringing some certainty to the HSCEI 2021 dividend index points. With Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK), ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and China Construction Bank H (939 HK) announcing results (and dividends) today, and Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) announcing on Monday and Tuesday next week, over 85% of the 2021 dividend index points will be known by end of the month.With Baidu (9888 HK) included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close of trading on 8 April, potential changes to the index at the June review that will be implemented at the close on 4 June, and capping changes that will be implemented at 8% of the index weight for all stocks at the June review, the dividend ex-date for the stocks (and banks in particular) will play a big role in determining the fair value of the 2021 dividend futures.With the SEC pushing forward with the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, US listed Chinese stocks could look to bring forward their plans to Secondary List on the HKEX (388 HK). Bilibili Inc (9626 HK) lists on Monday and media indicates that other Chinese companies are evaluating listing in Hong Kong. JD Logistics (JDL HK) has already filed papers to list in Hong Kong. Then there are companies like DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH), ByteDance (1460967D CH) and Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) that could primary list in Hong Kong in the near future. While this will have minimal impact on the 2021 dividends, the impact on the 2022 and later dividend futures would be a lot higher.We see little downside from the current market on the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures, but believe that the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener is trading too high. Potential changes to the index constituents should put downward pressure on the 2022 dividends with low dividend yield or zero dividend paying companies joining the index at high index weights, and high dividend paying companies being deleted from the index.

HSCEI Dividend Futures: June Index Review, Bank Divs, HFCAA - Sell the 2021/22 Steepener

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

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On 24th Mar 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs fell by 7.5% on average. 
We have covered various aspects of this topic before in our prior note, links to which are below. In this note, I'll talk about the SEC updates.
</div>
<div>
In our previous notes:
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
</ul>
</div>


On 24th Mar 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs fell by 7.5% on average. 
We have covered various aspects of this topic before in our prior note, links to which are below. In this note, I'll talk about the SEC updates.


In our previous notes:




China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 



China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> shares slid 18% in the two months after reaching the record high on 25 January 2021. The shares have been under pressure mostly on regulatory risks along with Alibaba.  As Tencent reported solid 4Q20 earnings on 24 March 2021, many of the Chinese Internet stocks took a hit on news that Chinese Internet platforms may be “encouraged” to contribute their digital payment and eCommerce transaction data to a joint venture company overseeing such lucrative data collection. While this news has been slowly reverberating since the beginning of the year, we are likely to have more clarity in the coming months. Our preliminary view on the Fintech risk is that Tencent will likely face a smaller impact than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>  – albeit, Alibaba shares have more than fully reflected such known risk, in our view – because Tenpay has a smaller exposure to consumer loans.  We will cover this discussion at another time. While investors certain can blame such share overhang risks undercutting the bullish momentum from the beginning of the year, we flag that Tencent’s results hint that the company’s benefit from the COVID-19 is fading.  Our key observations from the results are:<ul>
<li>
The online game growth of 2Q-3Q20 is not sustainable.  The growth for 2020 was impressive and the 4Q20 growth was still solid but there are signs that the growth is slowing even with new game introductions.  We estimate online game revenue growth to slow to 25% in 2021. </li>
<li>
Online advertising revenue growth re-accelerated marginally in 2020.  Tencent’s social advertising growth is gaining momentum as P4P is picking up with Moments ads.  We estimate advertising revenue growth remains stable at 19% in 2021. </li>
<li>
 Fintech growth is promising, notwithstanding the government risk.  4Q20 growth remained healthy at 29%.  We believe 19% growth in 2021e is achievable.   </li>
</ul>Valuation: Our SOTP based on 2020 valuation comparables suggests a fair value at over HKD700, but there is a lower upside as we roll over to 2021 valuation comps.  Even though operating metrics still look solid, Tencent’s risk-return profile looks less compelling despite the 18% fall.

Tencent Holdings (700 HK) shares slid 18% in the two months after reaching the record high on 25 January 2021. The shares have been under pressure mostly on regulatory risks along with Alibaba.  As Tencent reported solid 4Q20 earnings on 24 March 2021, many of the Chinese Internet stocks took a hit on news that Chinese Internet platforms may be “encouraged” to contribute their digital payment and eCommerce transaction data to a joint venture company overseeing such lucrative data collection. While this news has been slowly reverberating since the beginning of the year, we are likely to have more clarity in the coming months. Our preliminary view on the Fintech risk is that Tencent will likely face a smaller impact than Alibaba Group (BABA US)  – albeit, Alibaba shares have more than fully reflected such known risk, in our view – because Tenpay has a smaller exposure to consumer loans.  We will cover this discussion at another time. While investors certain can blame such share overhang risks undercutting the bullish momentum from the beginning of the year, we flag that Tencent’s results hint that the company’s benefit from the COVID-19 is fading.  Our key observations from the results are:

The online game growth of 2Q-3Q20 is not sustainable.  The growth for 2020 was impressive and the 4Q20 growth was still solid but there are signs that the growth is slowing even with new game introductions.  We estimate online game revenue growth to slow to 25% in 2021. 

Online advertising revenue growth re-accelerated marginally in 2020.  Tencent’s social advertising growth is gaining momentum as P4P is picking up with Moments ads.  We estimate advertising revenue growth remains stable at 19% in 2021. 

 Fintech growth is promising, notwithstanding the government risk.  4Q20 growth remained healthy at 29%.  We believe 19% growth in 2021e is achievable.   
Valuation: Our SOTP based on 2020 valuation comparables suggests a fair value at over HKD700, but there is a lower upside as we roll over to 2021 valuation comps.  Even though operating metrics still look solid, Tencent’s risk-return profile looks less compelling despite the 18% fall.     

Tencent (700 HK): Taking Foot Off the Pedal

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Softbank shares have returned to the pre-Coupang levels of early February, driven by increasing concerns about the value of the Vision Fund portfolio that remains private.  Number one on the list is the potential for second-order effects from the Greensill bankruptcy which not only cost Vision Fund $1.5bn in lost equity but also includes a further $1.2bn in debt exposure and a potential cash squeeze for other Vision Fund companies that were also clients.

Softbank shares have returned to the pre-Coupang levels of early February, driven by increasing concerns about the value of the Vision Fund portfolio that remains private.  Number one on the list is the potential for second-order effects from the Greensill bankruptcy which not only cost Vision Fund $1.5bn in lost equity but also includes a further $1.2bn in debt exposure and a potential cash squeeze for other Vision Fund companies that were also clients.

Softbank Group - Concerns on the Value of Private Vision Fund Assets Re-Surface

Lead Equity Research Analyst

Sameer Merchant, CFA

Pinduoduo (PDD) has fast become the quintessential disruptor, pioneering a new social form of e-commerce, now imitated by incumbents. Fronted by its pioneering team purchase model and supported by WeChat app integration, Pinduoduo has recorded impressive revenue CAGR of 217% (excl. merchandise) over the past three years to become the largest e-commerce player in China by number of users (788m in 2020 vs Alibaba’s 779m) and third largest by GMV. However, the recent departure of Chairman and founder, Colin Huan pushed share prices down 12%, overshadowing its Q4 2020 earnings beat.We see PDD as one of the best-in-class tech companies in China benefitting from its strong industry positioning, best-in-class growth prospects, a pioneering business model and exceptional management, spearheaded by CEO, Lei Chen, who given his long track-record of working with Colin Huang is a plug and play substitute for the departing Chairman.      The avant-garde turns disruptor: Much of the success of PDD can be attributed to its pioneering team purchase platform, built to thrive on the WeChat app. In the same vein, it was also the first of its kind to build the Customer to Merchants business model, allowing manufacturers to cut out the middlemen and sell directly to customers. It has also brought to market several products to drive customer engagement such as gaming. PDD dominates the e-commerce space in rural China given its roots in agricultural e-commerce and is investing heavily to roll out its in-house agricultural logistics network, which if done well will be its key differentiator.Multitude of drivers lends us confidence in its growth trajectory: We expect PDD's number of users to grow @14% CAGR over the next three years driven primarily by the ongoing penetration of WeChat users. Even though the diffusion rate of PDD into WeChat users has increased from 14% in 2017 to 59% in 2020, we see significant room for growth over the next three years. Moreover, PDDs ARPU is significantly lower than peers and one we see as a significant driver of growth for the young tech company. Management is focused on increasing both higher Average Selling Prices and increasing order frequency to drive revenue growth.New regulations heighten competitive intensity: New anti-trust regulations published in February and aimed to tackle monopolistic behaviours have already fined multiple internet players including PDD. Whilst some regulations such as exclusivity of merchants will benefit PDD, others such as curtailing price incentives will likely impinge future growth prospects. Also, the new regulations bars social media platforms and live video streaming websites to block third party e-commerce sellers which we understand will allow PDD to launch its app on rival’s apps such as Douyin (TikTok) but will also increase competition on native apps such as WeChat.Departing Chairman adds to PDD’s risk profile: In its FY 2020 earnings release, PDD announced that its Founder and Chairman, Colin Huang will be stepping down from the Board. Current CEO, Chen Lei, who replaced Colin as CEO last July, will now also become Chairman. We see the fundamentals of the business unchanged and continue to monitor the performance of the new CEO who worked on a number of start-ups with Colin before setting up PDD. Even though Colin Huang has stepped down from the business he will continue to work with PDD in agricultural research.

Pinduoduo (PDD) has fast become the quintessential disruptor, pioneering a new social form of e-commerce, now imitated by incumbents. Fronted by its pioneering team purchase model and supported by WeChat app integration, Pinduoduo has recorded impressive revenue CAGR of 217% (excl. merchandise) over the past three years to become the largest e-commerce player in China by number of users (788m in 2020 vs Alibaba’s 779m) and third largest by GMV. However, the recent departure of Chairman and founder, Colin Huan pushed share prices down 12%, overshadowing its Q4 2020 earnings beat.We see PDD as one of the best-in-class tech companies in China benefitting from its strong industry positioning, best-in-class growth prospects, a pioneering business model and exceptional management, spearheaded by CEO, Lei Chen, who given his long track-record of working with Colin Huang is a plug and play substitute for the departing Chairman.      The avant-garde turns disruptor: Much of the success of PDD can be attributed to its pioneering team purchase platform, built to thrive on the WeChat app. In the same vein, it was also the first of its kind to build the Customer to Merchants business model, allowing manufacturers to cut out the middlemen and sell directly to customers. It has also brought to market several products to drive customer engagement such as gaming. PDD dominates the e-commerce space in rural China given its roots in agricultural e-commerce and is investing heavily to roll out its in-house agricultural logistics network, which if done well will be its key differentiator.Multitude of drivers lends us confidence in its growth trajectory: We expect PDD's number of users to grow @14% CAGR over the next three years driven primarily by the ongoing penetration of WeChat users. Even though the diffusion rate of PDD into WeChat users has increased from 14% in 2017 to 59% in 2020, we see significant room for growth over the next three years. Moreover, PDDs ARPU is significantly lower than peers and one we see as a significant driver of growth for the young tech company. Management is focused on increasing both higher Average Selling Prices and increasing order frequency to drive revenue growth.New regulations heighten competitive intensity: New anti-trust regulations published in February and aimed to tackle monopolistic behaviours have already fined multiple internet players including PDD. Whilst some regulations such as exclusivity of merchants will benefit PDD, others such as curtailing price incentives will likely impinge future growth prospects. Also, the new regulations bars social media platforms and live video streaming websites to block third party e-commerce sellers which we understand will allow PDD to launch its app on rival’s apps such as Douyin (TikTok) but will also increase competition on native apps such as WeChat.Departing Chairman adds to PDD’s risk profile: In its FY 2020 earnings release, PDD announced that its Founder and Chairman, Colin Huang will be stepping down from the Board. Current CEO, Chen Lei, who replaced Colin as CEO last July, will now also become Chairman. We see the fundamentals of the business unchanged and continue to monitor the performance of the new CEO who worked on a number of start-ups with Colin before setting up PDD. Even though Colin Huang has stepped down from the business he will continue to work with PDD in agricultural research.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Time to Shine for the Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Initiating Coverage

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: June Index Review, Bank Divs, HFCAA - Sell the 2021/22 Steepener

While the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures are trading near our estimated fair, the HSCEI 2021/22 div steepener is not. We recommend selling the...

Brian Freitas

China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone

On 24th Mar 2021, SEC issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent (700 HK): Taking Foot Off the Pedal

Tencent shares are under pressure due to regulatory uncertainty, but its game growth is also slowing as the benefit of COVID-19 stay-at-home order...

Mitchell Kim

Softbank Group - Concerns on the Value of Private Vision Fund Assets Re-Surface

Softbank shares have returned to the pre-Coupang levels of early February, driven by increasing concerns about the value of the Vision Fund...

Kirk Boodry

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Time to Shine for the Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Initiating Coverage

Pinduoduo - Recent departure of Chairman has weighed on shares. We see the growth story fundamentally intact and Chen Lei as an ideal plug and play...

Sameer Merchant, CFA

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