Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>A female employee was sexually assaulted by a client and her immediate superior.</li>
<li>TXD is facing severe competition from inside and outside. As a result, it is obviously marginalized before the scandal.</li>
<li>We believe the department TXD took a desperate measure to keep client in order to prevent the department from being closed.</li>
<li>We believe TXD is in a reform plan after the restructuring in July. Therefore, the event will not change BABA's long term financials.</li>
</ul>


A female employee was sexually assaulted by a client and her immediate superior.
TXD is facing severe competition from inside and outside. As a result, it is obviously marginalized before the scandal.
We believe the department TXD took a desperate measure to keep client in order to prevent the department from being closed.
We believe TXD is in a reform plan after the restructuring in July. Therefore, the event will not change BABA's long term financials.


Alibaba (BABA): Sexual Harassment Just Before Department Reform

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Coupang, one of the largest e-commerce players in Korea, was listed on 11th Mar 2021 when it raised around US$4.5bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its US IPO.</p>
<p>In this note, we'll talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry.</p>
<p>We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: </p>
</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-quick-note-peers-move-down-range-moves-up-ripe-for-trading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-trading-most-hit-near-term-peak-on-the-first-day-key-trading-lock-up-dates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/​Lock-Up Dates</a></li>
</ul></div>


Coupang, one of the largest e-commerce players in Korea, was listed on 11th Mar 2021 when it raised around US$4.5bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its US IPO.
In this note, we'll talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry.
We've covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights: 


Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion
Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.
Coupang IPO Trading - Most Hit near Term Peak on the First Day - Key Trading/​Lock-Up Dates


Coupang Lock-Up Expiry - Failed to Meet Multiple Lock-Up Exits; Now Hitting the US$7bn Expiry

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<p>Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Jul 30. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $-810m (-1.2%) WoW and decreased by $3,845m (-5.4%) over the preceding four weeks.</p><p>Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($5,123m, +0.9% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($2,120m, -2.3% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($1,957m, -3.8% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,763m, -0.2% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,719m, +3.6% WoW).</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/222/683/original/Hong_Kong_Market_Short_Position_Value_%28line%29_and_1W_Changes_%28bar%29_%28%24m%292021-08-08+16_12_29.png?1628412015" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="222683"></figure></section>

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Jul 30. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $-810m (-1.2%) WoW and decreased by $3,845m (-5.4%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($5,123m, +0.9% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($2,120m, -2.3% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($1,957m, -3.8% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,763m, -0.2% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,719m, +3.6% WoW).

HK Short Interest: New Oriental Edu Short Cover After Policy Announcement

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Several news media outlets reported today that the Chinese antitrust regulators are preparing to impose a fine of US$1bn on the country’s food delivery giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> for abusing its market position. The above fine is supposed to be announced over the coming weeks and Meituan will be ordered to make changes to its business operations.</p><p>An antitrust fine of US$1bn will account for approx. 5.7% of Meituan’s FY12/2020 revenues whereas <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>  record antitrust fine of US$2.75bn in April this year was around 3.6% of its consolidated FY2020 revenues. If Meituan is imposed with an antitrust fine of US$1bn, it will mark the second largest antitrust fine in China after Alibaba’s US$2.75bn (Qualcomm was imposed a fine of US$975m in 2015).</p>

Several news media outlets reported today that the Chinese antitrust regulators are preparing to impose a fine of US$1bn on the country’s food delivery giant Meituan (3690 HK) for abusing its market position. The above fine is supposed to be announced over the coming weeks and Meituan will be ordered to make changes to its business operations.An antitrust fine of US$1bn will account for approx. 5.7% of Meituan’s FY12/2020 revenues whereas Alibaba Group (BABA US)  record antitrust fine of US$2.75bn in April this year was around 3.6% of its consolidated FY2020 revenues. If Meituan is imposed with an antitrust fine of US$1bn, it will mark the second largest antitrust fine in China after Alibaba’s US$2.75bn (Qualcomm was imposed a fine of US$975m in 2015).

Meituan: Is the US$1bn Fine the End of the Regulatory Probe on Meituan?

<div><p>Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. It ended the first day of trading up 79% from its IPO price. </p></div><div>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:</div><div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-pricey-as-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-lack-of-lock-up-and-msci-ftse-index-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-trading-one-for-instis-closer-look-at-ftse-and-msci-inclusion-remain-buyers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the first day trading and index inclusion.</p></div>

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. It ended the first day of trading up 79% from its IPO price. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:

Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear, 
Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be
Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications, and
Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers
In this note, we will talk about the first day trading and index inclusion.

Kakao Bank - MSCI Done, Missed FTSE by a Whisker.

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba (BABA): Sexual Harassment Just Before Department Reform

A female employee was sexually assaulted by a client and her immediate superior. TXD has been marginalized before the scandal. We believe the...

Ming Lu

Coupang Lock-Up Expiry - Failed to Meet Multiple Lock-Up Exits; Now Hitting the US$7bn Expiry

Coupang was listed on 11th Mar 2021 when it raised around US$4.5bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its US IPO. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

HK Short Interest: New Oriental Edu Short Cover After Policy Announcement

We highlight the change in short interest in the last Hong Kong SFC short aggregate report for Alibaba (9988 HK), CCB (939 HK), JD.com (9618 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Meituan: Is the US$1bn Fine the End of the Regulatory Probe on Meituan?

The Chinese antitrust regulators are preparing to impose a fine of US$1bn (about 5.7% of FY12/2020 revenues) on the country’s food delivery giant...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kakao Bank - MSCI Done, Missed FTSE by a Whisker.

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. It ended the first day of trading up 79% from its IPO...

Sumeet Singh

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