Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> are the biggest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> are the biggest sells.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$16.16bn (US$2.06bn).</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK),  HSBC (5 HK) are the biggest sells.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$16.16bn (US$2.06bn).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the...</li>
<li>...deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the...
...deletion of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK). 
No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.


Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group</a>  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha</a> (ChaPanda) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings</a> (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.</li>
<li>All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while Sichuan Baicha (ChaPanda) and Guming Holdings (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.
All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).


MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba plans to provide operational services to third-party sales broadcasters.</li>
<li>Xpeng will hire 4,000 employees and raise research budget by 40%.</li>
<li>Tuhu Car expected that its net profit will turn positive in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba plans to provide operational services to third-party sales broadcasters.
Xpeng will hire 4,000 employees and raise research budget by 40%.
Tuhu Car expected that its net profit will turn positive in 2023.


China Consumption Weekly (26 Feb 2024): Alibaba, Xpeng, HiPhi, Tuhu Car, Luckin

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 16th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Boc Aviation, and Link Reit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 16th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Boc Aviation, and Link Reit.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Boc Aviation, Link Reit

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), HSBC (5 HK) are...

Brian Freitas

Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

The Final flows for the Hang Seng March 2024 index rebalances are set based off the close of 27 February. One large change (Li Auto was expected to...

Travis Lundy

MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Mixue is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while ChaPanda and Good me)are said to be looking to raise US$300m each. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

China Consumption Weekly (26 Feb 2024): Alibaba, Xpeng, HiPhi, Tuhu Car, Luckin

Alibaba plans to provide operational services to third-party sales broadcasters. Xpeng will hire 4,000 employees and raise research budget. Tuhu...

Ming Lu

HK Short Interest Weekly: Boc Aviation, Link Reit

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 16th and highlight short interest changes in Boc Aviation, Link Reit.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)