Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2</li>
<li>FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled</li>
<li>Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth</li>
</ul>


Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2
FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled
Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth


CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Dec 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 17 November after the close.</li>
<li>There were no ADDs to or DELETEs from the index, in something of a surprise. </li>
<li>The "big flow" on HS TECH is the downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> due to sharp capping after significant outperformance since the August review.</li>
</ul>


The Dec 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 17 November after the close.
There were no ADDs to or DELETEs from the index, in something of a surprise. 
The "big flow" on HS TECH is the downweight on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) due to sharp capping after significant outperformance since the August review.


Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

<ul>
<li>On Friday, Hang Seng Indices announced the changes to the benchmark Hang Seng Index, the index in the family with the largest AUM.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> are added. There are no deletions.</li>
<li>I see 3.4% a side to trade and across the three major indices there are larger net flows, but few compelling ones given possible pre-positioning.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, Hang Seng Indices announced the changes to the benchmark Hang Seng Index, the index in the family with the largest AUM.

Li Auto (2015 HK) and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) are added. There are no deletions.
I see 3.4% a side to trade and across the three major indices there are larger net flows, but few compelling ones given possible pre-positioning.


HSI Dec23 Index Review/​Flows - Li Auto & Wuxi Apptec IN, No Deletes; 100 Names a Distant Dream

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>For a second review running, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> has avoided being deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>That means <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> misses out on index inclusion, but there is still hope for the next one.</li>
<li>There does not appear to be any significant positioning on either stock and any large moves early in the coming week could be short lived.</li>
</ul>


For a second review running, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) has avoided being deleted from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
That means China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) misses out on index inclusion, but there is still hope for the next one.
There does not appear to be any significant positioning on either stock and any large moves early in the coming week could be short lived.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Non-Core items boosted Q3 earnings, but core margins plunged vs Q2</li>
<li>In a surprise move, ZTO has abandoned its aggressive pursuit of share</li>
<li>Medium term growth is likely to slow, and pressure on margins remains</li>
</ul>


Non-Core items boosted Q3 earnings, but core margins plunged vs Q2
In a surprise move, ZTO has abandoned its aggressive pursuit of share
Medium term growth is likely to slow, and pressure on margins remains


ZTO Express Q3: Margins Plunge Vs Q2 | Abandons Pursuit of Share Gains | Is There a New Strategy?

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

Hang Seng Index team announced the December 2023 review for the Hang Seng Tech index on 17 Nov after the close. No name changes. But several...

Travis Lundy

HSI Dec23 Index Review/Flows - Li Auto & Wuxi Apptec IN, No Deletes; 100 Names a Distant Dream

The Hang Seng Index team announced index changes for December 2023 on Friday. In the benchmark HSI, Li Auto and Wuxi Apptec are added. There are...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

In a surprise, there are no constituent changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.85bn...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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P/E

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CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

Hang Seng Index team announced the December 2023 review for the Hang Seng Tech index on 17 Nov after the close. No name changes. But several...

Travis Lundy

HSI Dec23 Index Review/​Flows - Li Auto & Wuxi Apptec IN, No Deletes; 100 Names a Distant Dream

The Hang Seng Index team announced index changes for December 2023 on Friday. In the benchmark HSI, Li Auto and Wuxi Apptec are added. There are...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

In a surprise, there are no constituent changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.85bn...

Brian Freitas

ZTO Express Q3: Margins Plunge Vs Q2 | Abandons Pursuit of Share Gains | Is There a New Strategy?

ZTO has long employed a strategy of market share gains it uses to offset declining unit prices. Under current depressed market conditions, it has...

Tracking Traffic

HSI Dec23 Index Review/Flows - Li Auto & Wuxi Apptec IN, No Deletes; 100 Names a Distant Dream