Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months.</li>
<li>A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share.</li>
<li>Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow – Chariot has raised US$16.1 mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months.
A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share.
Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Adding portfolio depth and near term newsflow – Chariot has raised US$16.1 mm of new equity priced at £0.14 per share.


<ul>
<li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum has been priced at C$0.20 per subscription receipt.</li>
<li>Each subscription receipt will convert into a unit comprising one share and one warrant with an exercise price of C$0.25 per share valid for 36 months.</li>
<li>On completion of the acquisition, Criterium will hold 1,050 bbl/d long life and high netback production and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua). </li>
</ul>


Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum has been priced at C$0.20 per subscription receipt.
Each subscription receipt will convert into a unit comprising one share and one warrant with an exercise price of C$0.25 per share valid for 36 months.
On completion of the acquisition, Criterium will hold 1,050 bbl/d long life and high netback production and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua). 


<ul><li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d.</li><li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.</li><li>Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 1Q23 results – 1Q23 WI production in Nigeria was 51,720 boe/d.</li></ul>

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d.Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 1Q23 results – 1Q23 WI production in Nigeria was 51,720 boe/d.

Norway

Frontline PLC owns a fleet of very large crude carriers and tankers that transport crude oil and oil products between ports. The Company's vessels are managed by ship management companies. Frontline conducts activities worldwide.

BW LPG Limited provides safe, reliable and cost-efficient maritime transportation solutions to customers. The Company links areas of supply and demand globally with its fleet of LPG carriers, which is managed by experienced officers and crew. BW LPG is operating out of Singapore and its fleet operates on a combination of spot voyages, contracts of affreightment, and time charters.

SFL Corporation Ltd. owns and charters out ships. The Company operates fleet includes crude oil tankers, bulk and ore vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, and jack up oil rigs. SFL serves customers worldwide.

Flex LNG Ltd. owns technology for liquefying natural gas.  The Company intends to outfit a flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier to both liquefy and transport the gas.

DNO ASA is an oil and gas operator focused on onshore and offshore exploration, development and production. The Company operates in the North Sea, the Middle East, and Africa.

Norwegian Energy Company ASA (Noreco) focuses on exploration, appraisal, development, and production of oil and gas resources on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

Panoro Energy ASA explores for oil and natural gas in Brazil, Gabon, and Nigeria . The Company operates offshore in the Camamu-Almada and Santos basins.

Questerre Energy Corporation is an independent energy company focused on non-conventional oil and gas reserves.

Aker Solutions ASA provides products, systems, and services to oil and gas companies. The Company offers subsea production equipment and offshore field design to oil and gas companies globally.

TGS Nopec Geophysical Company ASA offers geophysical consulting and contracting services.  The Company also collects and processes magnetic and gravitational data.  TGS focuses on planning, collection, processing, and sale of marine seismic data.  The Company's customers are international oil and exploration companies.

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

APA Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on exploration and production of oil and gas properties. APA serves clients worldwide.

Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent international energy company engaged in exploration and production, oil sands mining and integrated gas. The Company's operations are focused in North America, Africa and Europe.

EQT Corporation is an integrated energy company with emphasis on Appalachian area natural-gas supply, transmission and distribution. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offer natural gas products to wholesale and retail customers.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation produces oil and natural gas. The Company's operations are focused on discovering, developing, and acquiring conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves onshore in the United States.

Aker BP ASA operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company focuses on the exploration and development of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf.

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Aker BP ASA (AKRBP NO)

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/07/2023

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 07/07/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; target price of C$0.55 per share: Financing priced – The C$22 mm offering for the acquisition of Mont D’Or Petroleum...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.

Auctus Advisors

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