Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.</li>
<li>The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.</li>
<li>Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.</li>
</ul>



Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.
The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.
Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.


2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajanta-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10053:1" rel="noopener">Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN)</a> has a well-diversified business model in terms of markets and therapies. The company’s largest revenue contributing segment, branded generics is seeing healthy double-digit revenue growth.</li>
<li>Ajanta focuses on limited competition product in US. Going forward, the US business will see accelerated growth, driven by new launches. Ajanta plans to file 10–12 ANDAs during FY23.</li>
<li>Ajanta has taken 1% price increase across all its market, which should drive margin improvement in coming quarters. The company has guided for EBITDA margin of 26–27% for FY23.</li>
</ul>



Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN) has a well-diversified business model in terms of markets and therapies. The company’s largest revenue contributing segment, branded generics is seeing healthy double-digit revenue growth.
Ajanta focuses on limited competition product in US. Going forward, the US business will see accelerated growth, driven by new launches. Ajanta plans to file 10–12 ANDAs during FY23.
Ajanta has taken 1% price increase across all its market, which should drive margin improvement in coming quarters. The company has guided for EBITDA margin of 26–27% for FY23.


Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Branded Generics Focus Ensures Consistent Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>Most of the large Indian pharmaceutical companies have reported double-digit revenue growth in their respective U.S. business in Q1FY23. New launches are mostly offsetting the impact of price erosion.</li>
<li>Although the companies are still facing price erosion in the U.S. market, the pace has slowed down. Price erosion seems to be near its bottom.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> remain our top picks. Aided by new launches both the companies are seeing sustainable recovery in U.S. business.</li>
</ul>


Most of the large Indian pharmaceutical companies have reported double-digit revenue growth in their respective U.S. business in Q1FY23. New launches are mostly offsetting the impact of price erosion.
Although the companies are still facing price erosion in the U.S. market, the pace has slowed down. Price erosion seems to be near its bottom.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) and Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) remain our top picks. Aided by new launches both the companies are seeing sustainable recovery in U.S. business.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: The US Business Is Recovering Slowly

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> obtained shareholders nod for demerging its pharma business and consolidated under Piramal Pharma Limited (PPL). Later, PPL will be listed on India stock exchange.</li>
<li>PPL has a differentiated pharmaceutical business model, with three business verticals. CDMO, the largest revenue contributor, has track record of consistent above-market growth due to its niche and complex capabilities.  </li>
<li>Listed as a separate entity, PPL will see multiple expansion and command premium valuation over other Indian generic drug makers, due to its niche and limited competition portfolio.</li>
</ul>



Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) obtained shareholders nod for demerging its pharma business and consolidated under Piramal Pharma Limited (PPL). Later, PPL will be listed on India stock exchange.
PPL has a differentiated pharmaceutical business model, with three business verticals. CDMO, the largest revenue contributor, has track record of consistent above-market growth due to its niche and complex capabilities.  
Listed as a separate entity, PPL will see multiple expansion and command premium valuation over other Indian generic drug makers, due to its niche and limited competition portfolio.


Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN): Demerger to Create a Differentiated and Niche Pharmaceutical Business

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajanta-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10053:1" rel="noopener">Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN)</a>  together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets finished dosages and markets it both domestic and internationally.</li>
<li>Although the company has been profitable, it does exhibit several concerns on the balance sheet side and few on the governance end.</li>
<li>Major setbacks include elongated cash conversion cycle, declining returns and efficiency ratios, doubts on effectiveness of R&amp;D, and capital allocation woes.</li>
</ul>



Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN)  together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets finished dosages and markets it both domestic and internationally.
Although the company has been profitable, it does exhibit several concerns on the balance sheet side and few on the governance end.
Major setbacks include elongated cash conversion cycle, declining returns and efficiency ratios, doubts on effectiveness of R&amp;D, and capital allocation woes.


India

Ajanta Pharma Limited is a pharmaceutical company involved in the areas of product research, manufacturing, and marketing. The Company's manufacturing capabilities include segments such as antiretrovirals, antimalarials, cardiovascular, dermatology, and ophthalmology. The Company also markets over the counter products that include some nature-based remedies.

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Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN)

2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

Cipla is a strong play on Indian pharma. Riding on a differentiated product portfolio and new launches gaining market share, Cipla is well...

Tina Banerjee