Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Socar is target price of 27,967 won, which is 18% lower than the low end of the IPO price range of 34,000 won.</li>
<li>Given the lack of upside, we would Pass on this IPO. Our valuation is also 23% lower than the valuation that Lotte Rental paid for its 13.9% stake in Socar.</li>
<li>We estimate Socar to generate sales of 396.4 billion won (up 37.2% YoY) and EBITDA margins of 12.6% in 2022. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Socar is target price of 27,967 won, which is 18% lower than the low end of the IPO price range of 34,000 won.
Given the lack of upside, we would Pass on this IPO. Our valuation is also 23% lower than the valuation that Lotte Rental paid for its 13.9% stake in Socar.
We estimate Socar to generate sales of 396.4 billion won (up 37.2% YoY) and EBITDA margins of 12.6% in 2022. 


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>This IPO's valuation is the trickiest among Korea's recent IPOs. Whether all of these ten valuation peers have high enough business relevance to SOCAR is highly doubtful.</li>
<li>Whether SOCAR can evolve from a simple car sharing (or rental) operator to an in-vehicle software platform provider actually determines the success or failure of this IPO.</li>
<li>However, the IPO prospectus available to us lacks the evidence to favorably judge SOCAR's growth potential. So, I will consider taking this IPO as conservatively as possible.</li>
</ul>


This IPO's valuation is the trickiest among Korea's recent IPOs. Whether all of these ten valuation peers have high enough business relevance to SOCAR is highly doubtful.
Whether SOCAR can evolve from a simple car sharing (or rental) operator to an in-vehicle software platform provider actually determines the success or failure of this IPO.
However, the IPO prospectus available to us lacks the evidence to favorably judge SOCAR's growth potential. So, I will consider taking this IPO as conservatively as possible.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>WISE Tour is another fast-growing theme index in Korea with an AUM of ₩0.23T. The next rebalancing will be on April 15. So, the rebalancing trading is on April 14.</li>
<li>Although the flow size of this ETF rebalancing is not substantial, it seems clear that the flow/price (direction) correlation is at a level we should pay attention to.</li>
<li>Those expected to receive a meaningful flow impact at this point are: (LONG) Hana Tour, GKL, &amp; Yong Pyong Resort / (SHORT) Hanjin KAL, Ananti, &amp; SK Rent A Car</li>
</ul>


WISE Tour is another fast-growing theme index in Korea with an AUM of ₩0.23T. The next rebalancing will be on April 15. So, the rebalancing trading is on April 14.
Although the flow size of this ETF rebalancing is not substantial, it seems clear that the flow/price (direction) correlation is at a level we should pay attention to.
Those expected to receive a meaningful flow impact at this point are: (LONG) Hana Tour, GKL, &amp; Yong Pyong Resort / (SHORT) Hanjin KAL, Ananti, &amp; SK Rent A Car


WISE Tour Leisure (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Preview

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, raised US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p></div><div><p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-peer-comparison-local-and-international" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and</a></li>
</ul></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-valuation-and-likely-impact-of-latest-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement</a></li></ul></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-low-end-still-appear-reasonable-but-stock-will-more-likely-be-driven-by-sentiment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-comparison-with-kakao-bank-and-an-alternate-look-at-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Comparison with Kakao Bank and an Alternate Look at Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div><p>In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.</p>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, raised US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:
Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant,
Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and
Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement
Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment
Kakao Pay IPO - Comparison with Kakao Bank and an Alternate Look at Valuation
In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.

<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base case valuation of Lotte Rental is implied market cap of 2.9 trillion won or implied price of 79,679 won per share, which would represent a 35% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of 59,000 won per share. Given the solid upside, we have a Positive view of the Lotte Rental IPO. We would take the deal. </p></div><ul>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on a 6.1x EV/EBITDA using 2020 EBITDA of 1,055 billion won. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x is at a 5% premium to the comps' valuation multiple.</li>
<li>We believe this is justified given higher ROE and EBITDA margins of Lotte Rental as compared to its peers.</li>
<li>In addition, Lotte Rental enjoys higher market share, higher revenues, and better brand recognition than its peers and as a result, the slight premium valuation multiples to its peers is justified, in our view. </li>
</ul>

Our base case valuation of Lotte Rental is implied market cap of 2.9 trillion won or implied price of 79,679 won per share, which would represent a 35% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of 59,000 won per share. Given the solid upside, we have a Positive view of the Lotte Rental IPO. We would take the deal. 
Our base case valuation is based on a 6.1x EV/EBITDA using 2020 EBITDA of 1,055 billion won. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x is at a 5% premium to the comps' valuation multiple.
We believe this is justified given higher ROE and EBITDA margins of Lotte Rental as compared to its peers.
In addition, Lotte Rental enjoys higher market share, higher revenues, and better brand recognition than its peers and as a result, the slight premium valuation multiples to its peers is justified, in our view. 


South Korea

SK Rent A Car Co., Ltd. provides cars rental and leasing services. The Company also offers passenger car leasing, and other motor vehicles leasing services. SK Rent A Car also offers used cars distribution services.

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SK Rent A Car (068400 KS)

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