Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Expressway and Metro / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2 22 result was healthy derived from both increase in ridership as well as ASP in both expressway and rail. </li>
<li>Cost increase but not as high as revenue increase therefore margin expanded while net profit went up 3x YoY. 2H 2022 will be even better. </li>
<li>Compared to AOT, BEM's PBR is 63% cheaper while its share price still underperformed AOT this year by 11%. </li>
</ul>


Q2 22 result was healthy derived from both increase in ridership as well as ASP in both expressway and rail. 
Cost increase but not as high as revenue increase therefore margin expanded while net profit went up 3x YoY. 2H 2022 will be even better. 
Compared to AOT, BEM's PBR is 63% cheaper while its share price still underperformed AOT this year by 11%. 


Bangkok Express and Metro (BEM): Marching On

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We suggest selling JMART after we recommended buying it yesterday because the stock has fallen out of our top rankings (with the return at +0.51%).</li><li>However, long-term investors may continue holding it, with the loss-stopping point at Bt48.00.</li><li>We add KKP to the portfolio, as the stock is likely to offer a YoY increase in the dividend payment for its1H22performance, which will be made in September, after it reported 1H22 earnings of Bt4,089mn, +45.1% YoY.</li></ul>

We suggest selling JMART after we recommended buying it yesterday because the stock has fallen out of our top rankings (with the return at +0.51%).However, long-term investors may continue holding it, with the loss-stopping point at Bt48.00.We add KKP to the portfolio, as the stock is likely to offer a YoY increase in the dividend payment for its1H22performance, which will be made in September, after it reported 1H22 earnings of Bt4,089mn, +45.1% YoY.

<ul>
<li>ASEAN consumer has been a popular investment theme for the past two decades signaled by the success stories of the few consumer dedicated funds in the region. </li>
<li>Consumer brands in F&amp;B such as Bakmi GM, Milk Life, and Kopi Kenangan are still private while the best Batik brand in Indonesia, Batik Keris, is also privately owned. </li>
<li>Plenty of opportunities in the Indonesian consumer sector are yet to hit the listed equities market. </li>
</ul>


ASEAN consumer has been a popular investment theme for the past two decades signaled by the success stories of the few consumer dedicated funds in the region. 
Consumer brands in F&amp;B such as Bakmi GM, Milk Life, and Kopi Kenangan are still private while the best Batik brand in Indonesia, Batik Keris, is also privately owned. 
Plenty of opportunities in the Indonesian consumer sector are yet to hit the listed equities market. 


<ul><li>We recommend selling EA (with the return since it was first added at +0.9%, as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.</li><li>We add JMART to the portfolio thanks to the expected 2Q22E earnings growth of 24.6% QoQ and 74.4% YoY to Bt405mn; this should have come on the back of the growth in the firms under its umbrella, led by JMT (the consensus estimates 2Q22E net profit at Bt392mn, +6.8% QoQ and +35.7% YoY) due to the seasonal increase in bad debt purchases and lower finance costs following the repayment of debentures, as well as SINGER (the consensus earnings estimate for 2Q22E is Bt246mn, +14.2% QoQ and +34.7% YoY) owing to the peak season for the sales of air conditioners.</li><li><div><div><div><div><p>GULF is a holding company engaging in core businesses relating to the generation and distribution of power based on natural gas and alternative energy. The firm also invests in infrastructure and other related businesses.</p></div></div></div></div></li></ul>

We recommend selling EA (with the return since it was first added at +0.9%, as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.We add JMART to the portfolio thanks to the expected 2Q22E earnings growth of 24.6% QoQ and 74.4% YoY to Bt405mn; this should have come on the back of the growth in the firms under its umbrella, led by JMT (the consensus estimates 2Q22E net profit at Bt392mn, +6.8% QoQ and +35.7% YoY) due to the seasonal increase in bad debt purchases and lower finance costs following the repayment of debentures, as well as SINGER (the consensus earnings estimate for 2Q22E is Bt246mn, +14.2% QoQ and +34.7% YoY) owing to the peak season for the sales of air conditioners.GULF is a holding company engaging in core businesses relating to the generation and distribution of power based on natural gas and alternative energy. The firm also invests in infrastructure and other related businesses.

Thailand

Airports of Thailand Public Company Ltd. operates the Bangkok International Airport (Don Muang) and the New Bangkok International Airport (Suvarnabhumi).. The Company also operates provincial airports in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Hat Yai, and Phuket.

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Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on $EEM. Specifically, the EEM has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If EEM has...

Vermilion Research

Bangkok Express and Metro (BEM): Marching On

The early sign of recovery is there and BEM has proven that it participates and does not lag behind the improvement in the ridership recovery as...

Henry Soediarko

Big Cap Tactical Picks - August 9, 2022

We suggest selling JMART after we recommended buying it yesterday because the stock has fallen out of our top rankings (with the return at +0.51%).

Krungthai XSpring

ASEAN Consumer: Still Plenty to Benefit?

After the recent trip to Jakarta, I found enlightenment on why consumer names in Indonesia are worth investing in for the longer term. There is...

Henry Soediarko

Big Cap Tactical Picks - August 8, 2022

We recommend selling EA (with the return since it was first added at +0.9%, as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.

Krungthai XSpring

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