New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a material fall in earnings in its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024.</li><li>Management guidance is for PBT at the bottom end of its NZ$180m–NZ$230m range.</li><li>We forecast PBT of NZ$183m, down -39% against the prior year. The quality of the result will be compromised by the inclusion of ~NZ$45m of income connected to expired COVID-related credits.</li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a material fall in earnings in its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024.Management guidance is for PBT at the bottom end of its NZ$180m–NZ$230m range.We forecast PBT of NZ$183m, down -39% against the prior year. The quality of the result will be compromised by the inclusion of ~NZ$45m of income connected to expired COVID-related credits.

Air New Zealand - 1H24 Preview — Descending

<ul><li>The headwinds in front of Air New Zealand (AIR) are strengthening.</li><li>Management has downgraded market earnings expectations again in light of weakening demand across its domestic and trans-Tasman business.</li><li>Long-haul has been largely immune to date, but given steadily recovering market capacity we expect a weaker long-haul story to emerge over the next six to 12 months, particularly from New Zealand outbound travellers. </li></ul>

The headwinds in front of Air New Zealand (AIR) are strengthening.Management has downgraded market earnings expectations again in light of weakening demand across its domestic and trans-Tasman business.Long-haul has been largely immune to date, but given steadily recovering market capacity we expect a weaker long-haul story to emerge over the next six to 12 months, particularly from New Zealand outbound travellers. 

Air New Zealand - Lacks Pax, Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Air New Zealand - 1H24 Preview — Descending

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report a material fall in earnings in its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024. Management guidance is for PBT at the bottom...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand - Lacks Pax, Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM

The headwinds in front of Air New Zealand (AIR) are strengthening. Management has downgraded market earnings expectations again in light of...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

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