Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A.

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A. 

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Heavy capital investment in previous years and government support helped the Chinese economy in previous years to grow, while this year seems to be difficult for the economy in general. Listed companies however, seemingly in line with other underlying trends, demonstrated moderate growth but with significant divergence across industries.Cumulative operating income of major industrial sectors inched up but with wide industrial variation. Heavy industry is experiencing generally flat to…

Heavy capital investment in previous years and government support helped the Chinese economy in previous years to grow, while this year seems to be difficult for the economy in general. Listed companies however, seemingly in line with other underlying trends, demonstrated moderate growth but with significant divergence across industries.Cumulative operating income of major industrial sectors inched up but with wide industrial variation. Heavy industry is experiencing generally flat to…

Counter cyclical investment strategy to run its course, Downgrade to Neutral on multiple headwinds<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/137/original/t3.JPG?1465611344" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9137"></figure> • Demand for tankers to grow, albeit at a slower pace: The sharp decline in crude prices in 2014-15 on account of supply glut in the crude oil market has turned the fortune of tanker operators. Demand for oil tankers picked up as crude demand surged on account of increased crude consumption and greater stockpiling activity for building Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) by China and India, as their…

Counter cyclical investment strategy to run its course, Downgrade to Neutral on multiple headwinds • Demand for tankers to grow, albeit at a slower pace: The sharp decline in crude prices in 2014-15 on account of supply glut in the crude oil market has turned the fortune of tanker operators. Demand for oil tankers picked up as crude demand surged on account of increased crude consumption and greater stockpiling activity for building Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) by China and India, as their…

Tanker Shipping Cycle - Counter Cyclical Investment Strategy to Run Its Course, Downgrade to Neutral

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production, the quality of groundwater, or even the figures for GDP, the official statistics rarely tell the full story. Officials have been found faking the figures and often selling inside information to the highest bidder. Although general trends can sometimes be right, good policies depend on accurate information.

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production, the quality of groundwater, or even the figures for GDP, the official statistics rarely tell the full story. Officials have been found faking the figures and often selling inside information to the highest bidder. Although general trends can sometimes be right, good policies depend on accurate information.

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/135/original/t1.JPG?1465610335" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9135"></figure> • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and low crude prices boosted the fortunes of tanker shipping companies in 2015; tanker operators reported a sharp growth in topline and registered multi-fold increase in earnings and profitability. The year gone by was one of the best for the industry since the GFC in 2008-09 as freight rates remained firm throughout the year; with occasional seasonal…

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and low crude prices boosted the fortunes of tanker shipping companies in 2015; tanker operators reported a sharp growth in topline and registered multi-fold increase in earnings and profitability. The year gone by was one of the best for the industry since the GFC in 2008-09 as freight rates remained firm throughout the year; with occasional seasonal…

China

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

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Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

China Listed Firms Q1 Summary

Heavy capital investment in previous years and government support helped the Chinese economy in previous years to grow, while this year seems to be...

Christopher Balding

Tanker Shipping Cycle - Counter Cyclical Investment Strategy to Run Its Course, Downgrade to Neutral

Counter cyclical investment strategy to run its course, Downgrade to Neutral on multiple headwinds • Demand for tankers to grow, albeit at a slower...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Getting the Detail Right in China

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production,...

Bixmoor

Tanker Shipping - Stocks Going Nowhere?

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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