HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

AviChina Industry & Technology H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> offers unique exposure to China's aerospace and defense sector and it will ride on China's ambition to solidify its military strengths. </li>
<li>We think the key drivers are increase in civil and defense demand, commercialisation of C919 aircraft, localisation of helicopters and potential for corporate restructuring.</li>
<li>The stock is undervalued with its holdings in four listed A-shares amounted to Rmb70.6bn, against its own market cap of HK$25bn. Also, earnings multiples are cheap relative to global peers.</li>
</ul>



AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) offers unique exposure to China's aerospace and defense sector and it will ride on China's ambition to solidify its military strengths. 
We think the key drivers are increase in civil and defense demand, commercialisation of C919 aircraft, localisation of helicopters and potential for corporate restructuring.
The stock is undervalued with its holdings in four listed A-shares amounted to Rmb70.6bn, against its own market cap of HK$25bn. Also, earnings multiples are cheap relative to global peers.


2023 High Conviction: AviChina Industry (2357 HK) - The Sky Is the Limit

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Chinese and global airlines completed only 70% of their planned international flights to China in the three weeks through Monday, signaling that recent easing of some inbound travel restrictions didn’t boost travel demand.</li><li>From Oct. 30 to Nov. 21, 3,595 international flights reached Chinese cities, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.</li><li>Although that was up from the same period last year, the total was still just 6% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019.</li></ul>

Chinese and global airlines completed only 70% of their planned international flights to China in the three weeks through Monday, signaling that recent easing of some inbound travel restrictions didn’t boost travel demand.From Oct. 30 to Nov. 21, 3,595 international flights reached Chinese cities, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.Although that was up from the same period last year, the total was still just 6% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Airlines Complete Only 70% of Planned International China Flights

<ul>
<li>China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.</li>
<li>The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. </li>
<li>Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  </li>
</ul>


China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.
The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. 
Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  


China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

<ul>
<li>Despite record losses in 2Q22, share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> has rallied 14% YTD, outperformed the 23.9% decline in HSCEI and its Chinese peers. </li>
<li>Air China's stub value has returned to pre-pandemic level, but is primarily driven by the A-share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> recovery is an important catalyst for narrowing H-A share discount.</li>
<li>News flow over the next 12 months, mostly related to further relaxation of quarantine requirements, will be positive. The surge in demand should support elevated passenger yield.  </li>
</ul>


Despite record losses in 2Q22, share price of Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) has rallied 14% YTD, outperformed the 23.9% decline in HSCEI and its Chinese peers. 
Air China's stub value has returned to pre-pandemic level, but is primarily driven by the A-share. Cathay Pacific (293 HK) recovery is an important catalyst for narrowing H-A share discount.
News flow over the next 12 months, mostly related to further relaxation of quarantine requirements, will be positive. The surge in demand should support elevated passenger yield.  


Air China (753 HK): Can It Sustain the Outperformance?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

Hainan Airlines Co., Ltd. provides passenger and freight air transportation. The Company also provides charter flight services. 

Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. offers air transportation services. The Company provides domestic air transportation, international air transportation, cargo transportation, and other services. Spring Airlines also offers ticket home delivery, insurance transaction, and other services.

Juneyao Airlines Co. Ltd. supplies air transportation services. The Company provides domestic and international routes for passengers and cargoes. Juneyao Airlines also offers ticket home delivery and electronic ticketing services.

China Express Airlines Co., Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing, ticket and hotel booking, consulting, and other services. China Express Airlines serves customers worldwide.

China Express Airlines Co Ltd (002928 CH)

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. mainly provides coal transportation service in Northern China. It also operates passenger transportation business.

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

United Airlines Holdings Inc is an airline holding company.  The Company owns and operates airlines that transports persons, property and mail throughout the United States and abroad.

Southwest Airlines Co. is a domestic airline that provides primarily short-haul, high-frequency, point-to-point service.  The Company offers flights throughout the United States.

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. provides transportation services. The Company offers international and domestic air passenger and cargo transportation services. International Consolidated Airlines Group serves customers worldwide.

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN)

International Consolidated Airlines Group

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is an airline that provides both domestic and international flight services.  The Company provides passenger and cargo services to destinations in Chile, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, and the Pacific.  LATAM Airlines operates passenger aircraft and cargo freighters.

InterGlobe Aviation Limited provides passenger airlines services. The Company offers ground management, air transportation, terminal maintenance, and other services. InterGlobe Aviation conducts its business globally.

Turk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THY), also known as Turkish Airlines, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The Company serves all domestic destinations as well as the Middle East, North America, Europe, Asia, North Africa and South Africa.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Qantas Airways Limited provides transportation of passengers through two airlines including Qantas (full service carrier) and Jetstar (low cost carrier), operating international, domestic and regional services. The Company also includes Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight which generates diverse revenue streams and adds value for customers and investors.

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Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)

2023 High Conviction: AviChina Industry (2357 HK) - The Sky Is the Limit

AviChina is cheap against global peers and key drivers are increase in civil and defense demand, commercialisation of C919 aircraft, localisation...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Airlines Complete Only 70% of Planned International China Flights

Chinese and global airlines completed only 70% of their planned international flights to China in the three weeks through Monday

Caixin Global

China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

The refined COVID combating measures in China is welcoming and should benefit the consumer discretionary, travel and hospitality and airlines...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Air China (753 HK): Can It Sustain the Outperformance?

Air China's stub value (ex-Cathay Pacific) has returned to pre-pandemic level, driven primarily by the A-share. We expect discount of H-share to A...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

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