Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> announced strong results, defying some worsening trends in volume, new listings, with quarterly profit growth rising from 11% to 28% to 34% YoY from 4Q22 to 2Q23 </li>
<li>Cost controls have been key to 31% 1H23 profit growth, with 0% growth depreciation, amortization, financing costs, and taxation, which can continue to support profit delta</li>
<li>Revenue growth of 18-19% YoY in each of the past 2 quarters is partly driven by new revenue streams, which can offset some weaknesses in traditional metrics</li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) announced strong results, defying some worsening trends in volume, new listings, with quarterly profit growth rising from 11% to 28% to 34% YoY from 4Q22 to 2Q23 
Cost controls have been key to 31% 1H23 profit growth, with 0% growth depreciation, amortization, financing costs, and taxation, which can continue to support profit delta
Revenue growth of 18-19% YoY in each of the past 2 quarters is partly driven by new revenue streams, which can offset some weaknesses in traditional metrics


HKEX (388 HK) - Exceptional Cost Controls, New Revenue Streams, Quarterly Profit Momentum

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The heavy decline in EM allocations that started in early 2021 came to an end last October. Since then, a growing number of Global Equity funds are raising allocations.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China &amp; HK, Mexico and Indonesia are at the heart of these moves, but all major countries are still held underweight, on average.</li>
<li>Stock exposures remain heavily skewed to the large caps, with 38% of the EM allocation in 6 key companies.</li>
</ul>


The heavy decline in EM allocations that started in early 2021 came to an end last October. Since then, a growing number of Global Equity funds are raising allocations.
Taiwan, China &amp; HK, Mexico and Indonesia are at the heart of these moves, but all major countries are still held underweight, on average.
Stock exposures remain heavily skewed to the large caps, with 38% of the EM allocation in 6 key companies.


Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight, but Remain Bearish

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

<ul>
<li>QBE Insurance is seeing a deteriorating combined operating ratio, in part due to CAT events and it unclear to us how underwriting, exposures will immediately improve</li>
<li>Net profit is nearly static, USD750m in FY21, USD770m in FY22. USD400m profit in 1H23 may note repeat in 2H23, due in part to USD700m more debt in interim.</li>
<li>North America net earned premiums are seeing far more distribution toward Commercial, where the COR is especially poor at 109% in 1H23</li>
</ul>


QBE Insurance is seeing a deteriorating combined operating ratio, in part due to CAT events and it unclear to us how underwriting, exposures will immediately improve
Net profit is nearly static, USD750m in FY21, USD770m in FY22. USD400m profit in 1H23 may note repeat in 2H23, due in part to USD700m more debt in interim.
North America net earned premiums are seeing far more distribution toward Commercial, where the COR is especially poor at 109% in 1H23


QBE Insurance - COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - The Tide Could Be Turning. Overhang Looms

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

HKEX (388 HK) - Exceptional Cost Controls, New Revenue Streams, Quarterly Profit Momentum

Cost controls are exceptional in latest results, with strong investment income that can last, and new enhancements to drive continued revenue...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight, but Remain Bearish

A growing number of Global Equity long-only funds are rotating back in, or moving to an overweight stance in Emerging Markets.

Steven Holden

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise US$270m in its Korean IPO. We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier...

Clarence Chu

QBE Insurance - COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

COR is now at 109% in North America Commercial segment, where growth of premiums is especially high. Debt is now rising, this is new, up USD700m in...

Daniel Tabbush

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - The Tide Could Be Turning. Overhang Looms

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not so positive...

Clarence Chu

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