Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q23 shows strong Value Of New Business (VONB), not sure of profit flow through</li>
<li>Comparative to 1H22 is easy vs loss of USD556m in the period, but risk to downside</li>
<li>Despite, stock buybacks, increased dividends market cap down 34% since peak this year</li>
</ul>


1Q23 shows strong Value Of New Business (VONB), not sure of profit flow through
Comparative to 1H22 is easy vs loss of USD556m in the period, but risk to downside
Despite, stock buybacks, increased dividends market cap down 34% since peak this year


AIA - Results 24 Aug, Cratering Mkt Cap Suggests Malaise, Earnings Base May Be Structurally Lower

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> on 1 September while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Both changes are a surprise, but the impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)</a> will be much larger. Given the recent increase in shorts, there could be covering.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.65bn. Capping will result in selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) on 1 September while Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK) will be deleted.
Both changes are a surprise, but the impact on Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) will be much larger. Given the recent increase in shorts, there could be covering.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.65bn. Capping will result in selling on Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK) and HSBC (5 HK). 


Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Sinopharm (1099 HK) Added, Country Garden (2007 HK) Deleted

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight.  Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64.4% of the average fund.  MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, with Saudi Arabia held underweight by -2.92%.</li>
<li>Tech moves to the top sector holding after capturing strong inflows, displacing Financials which saw heavy outflows and negative rotation.</li>
<li>TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba are the consensus holding.  All 4 are owned by at least 70% of funds and form the backbone of most active GEM equity funds.</li>
</ul>


Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight.  Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64.4% of the average fund.  MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, with Saudi Arabia held underweight by -2.92%.
Tech moves to the top sector holding after capturing strong inflows, displacing Financials which saw heavy outflows and negative rotation.
TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba are the consensus holding.  All 4 are owned by at least 70% of funds and form the backbone of most active GEM equity funds.


Emerging Market Funds:  Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 28th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Dexin Ser (2215 HK), Deewin (2418 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 28th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Dexin Ser (2215 HK), Deewin (2418 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 28th): Aia, Dexin Ser, Deewin

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

AIA - Results 24 Aug, Cratering Mkt Cap Suggests Malaise, Earnings Base May Be Structurally Lower

August 24 will see 1H23 earnings release, comparative YoY easy due to losses 1H22, but seems like earnings base is structurally lower. HK, CH...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Sinopharm (1099 HK) Added, Country Garden (2007 HK) Deleted

Sinopharm will replace CountryGarden in the HSI at the close on 1 Sep. There will be selling in Alibaba, Tencent and HSBC due to capping. Shorts...

Brian Freitas

Emerging Market Funds: Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight. Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64% of the average fund. MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, Tech...

Steven Holden

HK Short Interest Weekly: Byd Company, China Mobile, Wuxi Apptec, Bidu

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 21st and highlight short interest changes in Byd Company, China Mobile,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 28th): Aia, Dexin Ser, Deewin

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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