Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

APL's Q4/20 results surpassed our as well as rating agency (Fitch)’s expectations significantly. Revenues and profitability grew strongly due to the industrial land sales in Karawang, which were one-off in nature. The land sales also offset the weak performance of APL's investment properties (hotels and malls) which were hurt due to the pandemic. It is also unclear how much of the improvement was due to the new accounting standards. Financial risk profile improved significantly. Liquidity, however, remains weak. We believe that the surge in marketing sales in H2/20 was one-off and unsustainable. APL’s land bank (c. 6 mn sqm) is one of the smallest among the Indonesian HY real estate companies under our coverage, and will need to be replenished. Given the limited land available in Jakarta, APL will likely achieve this by buying other property players with land banks. Thus, we expect a material weaker FY 2021 with lower revenue and profitability, due to the lack of large one-off sale, and weaker cash flows with capex remaining relatively high (eg little changed vs FY 2020).

  APL's Q4/20 results surpassed our as well as rating agency (Fitch)’s expectations significantly. Revenues and profitability grew strongly due to the industrial land sales in Karawang, which were one-off in nature. The land sales also offset the weak performance of APL's investment properties (hotels and malls) which were hurt due to the pandemic. It is also unclear how much of the improvement was due to the new accounting standards. Financial risk profile improved significantly. Liquidity, however, remains weak.   We believe that the surge in marketing sales in H2/20 was one-off and unsustainable. APL’s land bank (c. 6 mn sqm) is one of the smallest among the Indonesian HY real estate companies under our coverage, and will need to be replenished. Given the limited land available in Jakarta, APL will likely achieve this by buying other property players with land banks.   Thus, we expect a material weaker FY 2021 with lower revenue and profitability, due to the lack of large one-off sale, and weaker cash flows with capex remaining relatively high (eg little changed vs FY 2020).  

Agung Podomoro Land - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Oil & Gas sector, including oil price development and projections, along with the associated drivers.  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Oil & Gas sector, including oil price development and projections, along with the associated drivers.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is a property development company.

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Agung Podomoro Land (APLN IJ)

Agung Podomoro Land - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

APL's Q4/20 results surpassed our as well as rating agency (Fitch)’s expectations significantly. Revenues and profitability grew strongly due to...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Oil & Gas sector, including oil price development and projections, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror...

Lucror Analytics

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