Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

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Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since late 2015 the outlook for the global economy has improved dramatically. Three key interdependent factors are largely responsible for this improvement:<ol>
<li>Stabilizing Chinese economy</li>
<li>Subsiding strength in the USD</li>
<li>Stabilization in commodity prices, specifically oil</li>
</ol>Subsiding strength in the USD since late 2015 has greatly alleviated pressure on China. China’s currency is pegged to the USD and appreciates against other currencies as the USD appreciates making China’s exports less competitive.China…

Since late 2015 the outlook for the global economy has improved dramatically. Three key interdependent factors are largely responsible for this improvement:
Stabilizing Chinese economy
Subsiding strength in the USD
Stabilization in commodity prices, specifically oil
Subsiding strength in the USD since late 2015 has greatly alleviated pressure on China. China’s currency is pegged to the USD and appreciates against other currencies as the USD appreciates making China’s exports less competitive.China…

Is China Property Finally Headed for a Correction? Policy Makers May Have Finally Pushed Too Far

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

The pace of inventory clearing of 'commercial residential' properties in select 12 major cities (number determined by data availability for longer historical data, sourced from SouFun-CREIS) based on September Available-for-Sale inventory data and 6-month average pace of sales shows further improvement (left chart below). In comparison to the four Tier-1 cities, the eight Tier-2 (treated as 'one city') are now clearing inventory faster. This can be explained by strong volume growth in those…

The pace of inventory clearing of 'commercial residential' properties in select 12 major cities (number determined by data availability for longer historical data, sourced from SouFun-CREIS) based on September Available-for-Sale inventory data and 6-month average pace of sales shows further improvement (left chart below). In comparison to the four Tier-1 cities, the eight Tier-2 (treated as 'one city') are now clearing inventory faster. This can be explained by strong volume growth in those…

China Property: Some Tier-2 Cities Now Clear Inventory Faster Than Tier-1, Driven By Volume Spikes

Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-house-prices-accelerating-16-6-y-y-in-sep-vs-13-8-in-aug-soufun-creis-100-cities-index" target="_blank">strong increases in house prices</a>, the land sales growth in China looks relatively low in the latest January-September data.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/610/original/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-31%20at%2010.26.02.png?1477880966" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15610"></figure>The land sales dynamics, like the other property metrics, vary significantly across cities. For example in Zhengzhou, land sales picked up very strongly with jumping sales volumes and prices (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-the-case-of-zhengzhou-with-a-ghost-town-myth-and-bubble-worries" target="_blank">see our Case of Zhengzhou note</a>).For January-September 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1…

Despite strong increases in house prices, the land sales growth in China looks relatively low in the latest January-September data.The land sales dynamics, like the other property metrics, vary significantly across cities. For example in Zhengzhou, land sales picked up very strongly with jumping sales volumes and prices (see our Case of Zhengzhou note).For January-September 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1…

Land Sales Growth In China Remains Low Despite Strong House Price Growth (Jan-Sep)

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth exceeding 30-40% y/y in several key cities is unsustainable.Income multiples now range from the mid-teens to late-20s for the Tier-1 cities, with prime prices at up to $20k per square metre.However, this is distorted by the huge amount of space hoarded as ‘concrete deposit boxes’ by the top 1% of households (who own about 25% of vacant space) and the…

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth exceeding 30-40% y/y in several key cities is unsustainable.Income multiples now range from the mid-teens to late-20s for the Tier-1 cities, with prime prices at up to $20k per square metre.However, this is distorted by the huge amount of space hoarded as ‘concrete deposit boxes’ by the top 1% of households (who own about 25% of vacant space) and the…

China's Housing Boom Overshooting on Land and New Housing Shortage - 28th Oct 2016

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth, sales volume growth, months-to-clear, land sales, and new starts. We compare latest September data with August, with national-level figures and a breakdown for Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 and others for select cities, depending on data availability.Note that September data will not yet reflect the impact of the property market restrictions introduced at…

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth, sales volume growth, months-to-clear, land sales, and new starts. We compare latest September data with August, with national-level figures and a breakdown for Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 and others for select cities, depending on data availability.Note that September data will not yet reflect the impact of the property market restrictions introduced at…

China Property Market Indicators Dashboard (September Vs August)

China

Agile Property Holdings Limited develops and operates real estate.  The Company primarily develops, owns and manages commercial and hotel properties.  Agile has projects in various states of completion in Hainan, Shanghai, Nanjing, Changzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Chongqing, Shenyang, Tianjing, Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, Huizhou and Heyuan.

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Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK)

Is China Property Finally Headed for a Correction? Policy Makers May Have Finally Pushed Too Far

Since late 2015 the outlook for the global economy has improved dramatically. Three key interdependent factors are largely responsible for this...

David Riedel

China Property: Some Tier-2 Cities Now Clear Inventory Faster Than Tier-1, Driven By Volume Spikes

The pace of inventory clearing of 'commercial residential' properties in select 12 major cities (number determined by data availability for longer...

Robert Ciemniak

Land Sales Growth In China Remains Low Despite Strong House Price Growth (Jan-Sep)

Despite strong increases in house prices, the land sales growth in China looks relatively low in the latest January-September data.The land sales...

Robert Ciemniak

China's Housing Boom Overshooting on Land and New Housing Shortage - 28th Oct 2016

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth...

Sean Maher

China Property Market Indicators Dashboard (September Vs August)

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth,...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)