Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

*AML/CTF Violations: National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) [NAB] announced that it was informed by the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) that it had identified “potential serious and on-going non-compliance” with NAB's compliance with the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) Act 2006, and the AML/CFT Rules 2007; and*Fundamental Challenges Too: AML/CTF is not NAB’s only challenge. NAB's 1H21 NIM declined another 3 bp HOH to 1.74%, and will remain challenged from this low rate environment, competitive pressures, and higher mortgage concentrations well into FY 2022. In addition, NAB’s loans 90+ days past due loans increased over 30% HOH due to challenges from Australian mortgage customers exiting loan deferrals.

*AML/CTF Violations: National Australia Bank (NAB.AU) [NAB] announced that it was informed by the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) that it had identified “potential serious and on-going non-compliance” with NAB's compliance with the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) Act 2006, and the AML/CFT Rules 2007; and*Fundamental Challenges Too: AML/CTF is not NAB’s only challenge. NAB's 1H21 NIM declined another 3 bp HOH to 1.74%, and will remain challenged from this low rate environment, competitive pressures, and higher mortgage concentrations well into FY 2022. In addition, NAB’s loans 90+ days past due loans increased over 30% HOH due to challenges from Australian mortgage customers exiting loan deferrals.

*Reserve Bank of Australia’s No Action On BNPL:The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a Retail Payments Review on May 28, 2021 discussing among other items the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model. Specifically, the RBA reviewed whether the BNPL model should continue with its ‘no surcharge rules’ whereby merchants are precluded from passing along BNPL fees to its customers. The RBA concluded that it will not require the BNPL sector to change its ‘no surcharge rules’; and  *Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology BNPL company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*Reserve Bank of Australia’s No Action On BNPL:The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a Retail Payments Review on May 28, 2021 discussing among other items the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model. Specifically, the RBA reviewed whether the BNPL model should continue with its ‘no surcharge rules’ whereby merchants are precluded from passing along BNPL fees to its customers. The RBA concluded that it will not require the BNPL sector to change its ‘no surcharge rules’; and  *Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology BNPL company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

*Meh 1Q21 Result: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] reported 1Q21 total revenues of CNY 135.3 bn - increasing 25% YOY, while non-GAAP operating profit aggregated CNY 42.8 bn - increasing 20% YOY; and*Capital Raise Likely Coming: For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. At CNY 38.5 bn for full year 2020, FinTech represents a growing 28.8% of revenue – and is a key and growing component of Tencent’s current and future results. No matter what spin that Tencent wants to place on its other businesses, an FHC represents significant downside risks. Earnings will compress, as capital requirements increase.

*Meh 1Q21 Result: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] reported 1Q21 total revenues of CNY 135.3 bn - increasing 25% YOY, while non-GAAP operating profit aggregated CNY 42.8 bn - increasing 20% YOY; and*Capital Raise Likely Coming: For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. At CNY 38.5 bn for full year 2020, FinTech represents a growing 28.8% of revenue – and is a key and growing component of Tencent’s current and future results. No matter what spin that Tencent wants to place on its other businesses, an FHC represents significant downside risks. Earnings will compress, as capital requirements increase.

Tencent Holdings – Awaiting The Big Hit

*Focus On Positives: Given the scrutiny that Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] has come under, it comes as no surprise that Tencent wanted to highlight its positive developments such as international expansion and tailwinds in gaming, potential ad load expansion in Video Accounts, and Mini Programs enrichment; and*Elephant In The Room: Over time, it is our belief that Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. No matter what spin that Tencent wants to place on its other businesses, an FHC represents significant downside risks.

*Focus On Positives: Given the scrutiny that Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] has come under, it comes as no surprise that Tencent wanted to highlight its positive developments such as international expansion and tailwinds in gaming, potential ad load expansion in Video Accounts, and Mini Programs enrichment; and*Elephant In The Room: Over time, it is our belief that Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. No matter what spin that Tencent wants to place on its other businesses, an FHC represents significant downside risks.

*4Q20 Results In Line:Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 4Q20 results were basically in line with consensus, with total revenues coming in at CNY 133.7 bn, increasing 7% linked quarter.  Non-GAAP operating profit amounted to CNY 38.1bn, flattish on a linked quarter basis; and *Elephant In The Room: According to Bloomberg, Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in.

*4Q20 Results In Line:Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 4Q20 results were basically in line with consensus, with total revenues coming in at CNY 133.7 bn, increasing 7% linked quarter.  Non-GAAP operating profit amounted to CNY 38.1bn, flattish on a linked quarter basis; and *Elephant In The Room: According to Bloomberg, Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. 

Australia

Afterpay Limited provides financial solutions. The Company offers payment platform that allow users to maintain financial wellness and control, by splitting payments in four, for both online and in-store purchases. Afterpay serves customers globally.

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Afterpay (APT AU)

National Australia Bank - Nabbed

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK: NAB was informed by AUSTRAC that it had identified “potential serious and on-going non-compliance” with NAB's compliance...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Shot, Score!!

TENCENT HOLDINGS: The RBA released a Retail Payments Review discussing among other items the BNPL model. The RBA concluded that it will not require...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Awaiting The Big Hit

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent] reported 1Q21 YOY total revenue growth of 25%, while non-GAAP operating profit increased just 20%. An FHC suggests...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – What Wasn’t Said

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent receives a premium valuation which will be eroded over time, as it likely will be required to create an FHC. No matter...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Living By The Sword

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent 4Q20 results were basically in line with consensus, increasing 7% linked quarter. Tencent will be required to create a...

Thomas J. Monaco

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