Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.</li>
<li>Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. </li>
<li>We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.
Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. 
We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Affle Ltd. (Affle) reported a strong recovery after a seasonally weak quarter. The company's Q2FY21 revenue stood at Rs 274 Cr, up 80.2% QoQ and 103.6% YoY</li><li>The management has guided for CAGR 25%-30% growth over the next five years in light of robust demand and rising mobile consumption</li><li>We recommend a BUY on the stock and assign 75x P/E multiple to its FY23E earnings of Rs 17.9/share which gives a TP of Rs 1,350/share</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Affle Ltd. (Affle) reported a strong recovery after a seasonally weak quarter. The company's Q2FY21 revenue stood at Rs 274 Cr, up 80.2% QoQ and 103.6% YoYThe management has guided for CAGR 25%-30% growth over the next five years in light of robust demand and rising mobile consumptionWe recommend a BUY on the stock and assign 75x P/E multiple to its FY23E earnings of Rs 17.9/share which gives a TP of Rs 1,350/shareContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Affle India: Robust Recovery; Margin Profile to Improve

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN)</a> provides e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through two verticals Nykaa (beauty and personal care) and Nykaa Fashion (apparel and accessories). Nykaa is the largest speciality beauty and personal care platform in India as measured by the value of products sold in the FY21 and in 5MFY22 (five months ending August), according to RedSeer.   </p></div><div>
<p>Nykaa will launch its IPO on 28 October. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs6,300 million ($84 million) with the remainder 42.0 million secondary shares. At the indicative price range of Rs1,085-1,125 per share, the gross proceeds are Rs51.8-53.2 billion ($691-714 million). An anchor placement of up to Rs23.4 billion ($312 million) will open on 27 October, and the IPO will close on 1 November. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nykaa-ipo-initiation-beauty-parade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58791" rel="noopener">Nykaa IPO Initiation: Beauty Parade</a>, we stated that Nykaa has a strong positioning in India’s e-commerce beauty products industry, underpinned by the strong brand recognition of the ‘Nykaa’ brand. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash generation. These characteristics should enable Nykaa to hold its own against intensifying competition. We concluded that Nykaa has attractive fundamentals.</p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nykaa-ipo-on-trend" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59407" rel="noopener">Nykaa IPO: On Trend</a>, we stated that the recent results from the updated prospectus reinforce our view that Nykaa has the ability to deliver strong profitable growth. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</p></div></div>

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN) provides e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through two verticals Nykaa (beauty and personal care) and Nykaa Fashion (apparel and accessories). Nykaa is the largest speciality beauty and personal care platform in India as measured by the value of products sold in the FY21 and in 5MFY22 (five months ending August), according to RedSeer.   
Nykaa will launch its IPO on 28 October. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs6,300 million ($84 million) with the remainder 42.0 million secondary shares. At the indicative price range of Rs1,085-1,125 per share, the gross proceeds are Rs51.8-53.2 billion ($691-714 million). An anchor placement of up to Rs23.4 billion ($312 million) will open on 27 October, and the IPO will close on 1 November. 
In Nykaa IPO Initiation: Beauty Parade, we stated that Nykaa has a strong positioning in India’s e-commerce beauty products industry, underpinned by the strong brand recognition of the ‘Nykaa’ brand. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash generation. These characteristics should enable Nykaa to hold its own against intensifying competition. We concluded that Nykaa has attractive fundamentals.
In Nykaa IPO: On Trend, we stated that the recent results from the updated prospectus reinforce our view that Nykaa has the ability to deliver strong profitable growth. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.</p><p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p><p>We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.</p><p>Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BOB Capital Markets Ltd

BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

<p>Ecosystem-level partnerships fortify AFFLE's defense against data/ privacy risk</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Ecosystem-level partnerships fortify AFFLE's defense against data/ privacy riskContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Affle (India) (BUY): Annual report analysis  Sustained R&D focus

India

Affle (India) Limited operates as a technology company. The Company offers consumer intelligence platform that delivers consumer engagements, acquisitions, and transactions through mobile advertising, as well as platform aims to enhance returns on marketing investment through contextual mobile ads and also by reducing digital ad fraud. Affle (India) serves customers worldwide.

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Affle (India) Limited (AFFLE IN)

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

Affle India: Robust Recovery; Margin Profile to Improve

We recommend a BUY on the stock and assign 75x P/E multiple to its FY23E earnings of Rs 17.9/share which gives a TP of Rs 1,350/share, implying an...

Axis Direct

Nykaa IPO: Valuation Insights

Nykaa will launch its IPO on 28 October to raise gross proceeds of $691-714 million. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is...

Arun George

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Halfway through the review period, we take a look at stocks that could migrate across the large, mid and small cap segments. With over US$100bn of...

Brian Freitas

Affle (India) (BUY): Annual report analysis Sustained R&D focus

Ecosystem-level partnerships fortify AFFLE's defense against data/ privacy risk

BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

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