Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>General Electric intends to offload its entire shareholding via a secondary offer, a positive development as it removes the share overhang</li>
<li>Opportune time to own Aercap as aircraft is in high demand and supply chain disruptions mean limited supply over the medium-term, ensuring high lease rates and strong profits </li>
<li>BUY with target price of $81.45 (+21% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x, Aercap is the best in the pack with superior net lease margin, finance cost, and ROE     </li>
</ul>


General Electric intends to offload its entire shareholding via a secondary offer, a positive development as it removes the share overhang
Opportune time to own Aercap as aircraft is in high demand and supply chain disruptions mean limited supply over the medium-term, ensuring high lease rates and strong profits 
BUY with target price of $81.45 (+21% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x, Aercap is the best in the pack with superior net lease margin, finance cost, and ROE     


Aercap Secondary Offer: Overhang No More and It Is Cheap, BUY

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aercap-holdings-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28083:1" rel="noopener">AerCap Holdings NV (AER US)</a> (AerCap) 2023 result was excellent; record core profit of USD2.4b, 27% ROE, and share buyback of USD2.6b of shares (~18% shares in issue) </li>
<li>Management guided continued growth in 2024 and announced a further USD500m share buyback (~3% shares in issue). We think it can easily beat this lowball target       </li>
<li>Poised for growth; aircraft lease rates and asset values are rising. Maintain BUY with higher TP of USD90.6 (+16% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x (1SD above LT average)   </li>
</ul>



AerCap Holdings NV (AER US) (AerCap) 2023 result was excellent; record core profit of USD2.4b, 27% ROE, and share buyback of USD2.6b of shares (~18% shares in issue) 
Management guided continued growth in 2024 and announced a further USD500m share buyback (~3% shares in issue). We think it can easily beat this lowball target       
Poised for growth; aircraft lease rates and asset values are rising. Maintain BUY with higher TP of USD90.6 (+16% UPSIDE) pegged to FY24 P/BV of 0.94x (1SD above LT average)   


AerCap (AER US): Splendid 2023, More to Come in 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>An excellent article by Keith Mwanalushi in Aviation Week Network is a must read, here is the link <a href="https://aviationweek.com/mro/supply-chain/engine-supply-chain-experiences-shifting-pain-points" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points | Aviation Week Network  </a>
</li>
<li>Underpins our thesis that engine issues disrupt aircraft supply, pushing lease rates higher - especially on aircraft coming off leases, and for spare engines </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftai-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28793:1" rel="noopener">FTAI Aviation (FTAI US)</a> is the prime beneficiary with a portfolio of engines followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aercap-holdings-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28083:1" rel="noopener">AerCap Holdings NV (AER US)</a> with engines and mid-life aircraft coming off leases</li>
</ul>


An excellent article by Keith Mwanalushi in Aviation Week Network is a must read, here is the link Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points | Aviation Week Network  

Underpins our thesis that engine issues disrupt aircraft supply, pushing lease rates higher - especially on aircraft coming off leases, and for spare engines 

FTAI Aviation (FTAI US) is the prime beneficiary with a portfolio of engines followed by AerCap Holdings NV (AER US) with engines and mid-life aircraft coming off leases


Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points

<ul>
<li>This report explains the nuts and bolts of the aircraft leasing industry in a simple manner, along with its opportunities, risks, and business outlook.  </li>
<li>We are in a golden era, underpinned by strong global traffic recovery, and supply shortage due to technical and manufacturer snafus. Airlines are also increasingly struggling to access credit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aercap-holdings-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28083:1" rel="noopener">AerCap Holdings NV (AER US)</a> is our top pick on its superior business profile and attractive valuation, the second choice is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">BOC Aviation (2588 HK). </a>
</li>
</ul>


This report explains the nuts and bolts of the aircraft leasing industry in a simple manner, along with its opportunities, risks, and business outlook.  
We are in a golden era, underpinned by strong global traffic recovery, and supply shortage due to technical and manufacturer snafus. Airlines are also increasingly struggling to access credit. 

AerCap Holdings NV (AER US) is our top pick on its superior business profile and attractive valuation, the second choice is BOC Aviation (2588 HK). 



Aircraft Leasing 101 - Heralding the Golden Era

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Ireland

AerCap Holdings NV is the world's largest aircraft leasing firm by fleet value, and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (AER). It has its headquarters in Dublin with offices in Amsterdam, Los Angeles, Shannon, Fort Lauderdale, Singapore, Shanghai, Abu Dhabi, Seattle and Toulouse.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

AerCap Holdings NV (AER US)

Aercap Secondary Offer: Overhang No More and It Is Cheap, BUY

The principal shareholder intends to sell its entire 14.5% stake, effectively removes share overhang. The leasing market is heading to a golden...

Mohshin Aziz

AerCap (AER US): Splendid 2023, More to Come in 2024

AerCap reported a record 2023 financial performance. Expect more growth in 2024, with rising lease rates and asset values. Stock remains cheap,...

Mohshin Aziz

Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points

Engine supply chain issues are causing disruptions in the aircraft supply and driving up lease rates, benefiting FTAI Aviation and AerCap Holdings.

Mohshin Aziz

Aircraft Leasing 101 - Heralding the Golden Era

Aircraft Leasing 101 is a quick and easy guide to the aircraft leasing industry. We are Bullish on Aercap and BOC Aviation, and you will be too...

Mohshin Aziz

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aercap Secondary Offer: Overhang No More and It Is Cheap, BUY

The principal shareholder intends to sell its entire 14.5% stake, effectively removes share overhang. The leasing market is heading to a golden...

Mohshin Aziz

AerCap (AER US): Splendid 2023, More to Come in 2024

​AerCap reported a record 2023 financial performance. Expect more growth in 2024, with rising lease rates and asset values. Stock remains cheap,...

Mohshin Aziz

Engine Supply Chain Experiences Shifting Pain Points

​Engine supply chain issues are causing disruptions in the aircraft supply and driving up lease rates, benefiting FTAI Aviation and AerCap Holdings.

Mohshin Aziz

Aircraft Leasing 101 - Heralding the Golden Era

Aircraft Leasing 101 is a quick and easy guide to the aircraft leasing industry. We are Bullish on Aercap and BOC Aviation, and you will be too...

Mohshin Aziz

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

AerCap reported a record 2023 financial performance. Expect more growth in 2024, with rising lease rates and asset values. Stock remains cheap,...

Engine supply chain issues are causing disruptions in the aircraft supply and driving up lease rates, benefiting FTAI Aviation and AerCap Holdings.