Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February.  While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's figures are only the beginning of the upcoming downturn.  This Smartkarma Insight uses the industry's historical trends to give an early and rough indication of how the market might evolve.

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February.  While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's figures are only the beginning of the upcoming downturn.  This Smartkarma Insight uses the industry's historical trends to give an early and rough indication of how the market might evolve.

February Semiconductors Show Onset of COVID-19 Decline

For the past couple of decades businesses have explained that PC demand increases with  the introduction of new Windows operating systems.  A close examination of the relationship between DRAM gigabyte demand and Windows introduction dates casts this theory into question.

For the past couple of decades businesses have explained that PC demand increases with  the introduction of new Windows operating systems.  A close examination of the relationship between DRAM gigabyte demand and Windows introduction dates casts this theory into question.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

WSTS, the agency that tracks monthly semiconductor revenues, reported this week that the decline of the semiconductor market has continued to slow in January.  Still, excessive capital spending, COVID-19, and trade wars are likely to prevent the market from realizing a full recovery in 2020.

WSTS, the agency that tracks monthly semiconductor revenues, reported this week that the decline of the semiconductor market has continued to slow in January.  Still, excessive capital spending, COVID-19, and trade wars are likely to prevent the market from realizing a full recovery in 2020.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

February Semiconductors Show Onset of COVID-19 Decline

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February. While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's...

Jim Handy

Windows' Impact on Chip Sales

For the past couple of decades businesses have explained that PC demand increases with the introduction of new Windows operating systems. A close...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equities: Test Of The Lows Coming?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance...

Vermilion Research

WSTS Reports Slowing Chip Decline

WSTS, the agency that tracks monthly semiconductor revenues, reported this week that the decline of the semiconductor market has continued to slow...

Jim Handy

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