Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring. There were a few incremental pieces, but the big news was everything to do with China.</li><li>As you know, there was another round of export restrictions with a myopic focus on AI Accelerators.</li><li>This impacted results and the outlook.</li></ul>

Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring. There were a few incremental pieces, but the big news was everything to do with China.As you know, there was another round of export restrictions with a myopic focus on AI Accelerators.This impacted results and the outlook.

Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. </li>
<li>Multiple data points suggest we'll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.
Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. 
Multiple data points suggest we'll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024


Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

<ul>
<li>Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number</li>
<li>NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%</li>
<li>Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?</li>
</ul>


Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number
NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%
Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?


NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed</li>
<li>This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage</li>
<li>Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins</li>
</ul>


HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed
This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage
Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins


Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.</li>
<li>We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.
We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.


What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators

Nvidia surprised everyone with a boring result! Applied Materials is an overreaction. Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring.

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

Despite the positives that PC and Smartphone markets are in recovery mode, semi sales growing MoM etc, multiple data points suggest we'll still be...

William Keating

NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, +34% QoQ & up staggering 206% from the year ago period.Current quarter forecast +$2 billion QoQ. What didn't the...

William Keating

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us? Telling us early signs of semi equipment and global semi sales recovery and we...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators

Nvidia surprised everyone with a boring result! Applied Materials is an overreaction. Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring.

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

Despite the positives that PC and Smartphone markets are in recovery mode, semi sales growing MoM etc, multiple data points suggest we'll still be...

William Keating

NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, +34% QoQ & up staggering 206% from the year ago period.Current quarter forecast +$2 billion QoQ. What didn't the...

William Keating

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

​HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us? Telling us early signs of semi equipment and global semi sales recovery and we...

Andrew Lu

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...