Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self.</li>
<li>Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset leading them to over promise and under deliver.</li>
<li>Unless you are a Google or an Amazon, designing and building your own AI processor from scratch to compete with NVIDIA is a fool's errand.</li>
</ul>


Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self.
Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset leading them to over promise and under deliver.
Unless you are a Google or an Amazon, designing and building your own AI processor from scratch to compete with NVIDIA is a fool's errand.


Graphcore. A Cautionary Tale For Would-Be NVIDIA Challengers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

<ul>
<li>WSTS updates global semiconductor FY2023 forecast to reflect a 10% YoY decline</li>
<li>TSMC's May revenue jumps 19.4% MoM reflecting the generative AI-driven surge in orders from NVIDIA</li>
<li>Intel plumbs new depths with a ridiculous IDC SAM analysis</li>
</ul>


WSTS updates global semiconductor FY2023 forecast to reflect a 10% YoY decline
TSMC's May revenue jumps 19.4% MoM reflecting the generative AI-driven surge in orders from NVIDIA
Intel plumbs new depths with a ridiculous IDC SAM analysis


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 10/6/23

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reduced capex guidance to the bottom of its guidance range but maintained revenue expectations and still expects substantial growth in 2024E.</li>
<li>Dell, HP, and Qualcomm comments signal an AI-Driven PC refresh cycle ahead and 2024E PC Growth. Windows 11 upgrades could be accelerated as new PC AI applications roll out.</li>
<li>Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected to experience triple-digit growth.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reduced capex guidance to the bottom of its guidance range but maintained revenue expectations and still expects substantial growth in 2024E.
Dell, HP, and Qualcomm comments signal an AI-Driven PC refresh cycle ahead and 2024E PC Growth. Windows 11 upgrades could be accelerated as new PC AI applications roll out.
Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected to experience triple-digit growth.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cuts Capex; Hon Hai AI Servers in Demand; ASE Winning TSMC Orders

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

The chip market is giving signs of a recovery which will see rising revenues but should remain unprofitable for commodity players until mid-2024. ...

Jim Handy

Graphcore. A Cautionary Tale For Would-Be NVIDIA Challengers

Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self. Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset...

William Keating

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 10/6/23

WSTS updates '23 forecast to reflect a 10% YoY decline in semi sales. TSMC's May revenue +19.4% MoM reflecting AI-driven surge in GPU orders. Intel...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cuts Capex; Hon Hai AI Servers in Demand; ASE Winning TSMC Orders

Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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