Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017</li>
<li>Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, "demand right now is just insane"</li>
<li>Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017
Demand for AI acceleration is real and just beginning. According to a key customer of theirs, "demand right now is just insane"
Overseas fabs progressing well with Arizona yielding well and on track for high volume production in early 2025


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Main positive surprise in 3Q24 is a sharp margins expansion, reflecting Utilization increase. OP 9% above Consensus.</li>
<li>Main positive surprise in 4Q24 guidance: high QoQ revenue growth at 13%, which suggests further Utilization increase and TSMC could beat its margins guidance again.  </li>
<li>Net Income growth is accelerating in 2H24 to ~55% YoY. The stock is not that expensive, we estimate trading at 17.2x 2025 and 13.8x 2026 EPS.</li>
</ul>


Main positive surprise in 3Q24 is a sharp margins expansion, reflecting Utilization increase. OP 9% above Consensus.
Main positive surprise in 4Q24 guidance: high QoQ revenue growth at 13%, which suggests further Utilization increase and TSMC could beat its margins guidance again.  
Net Income growth is accelerating in 2H24 to ~55% YoY. The stock is not that expensive, we estimate trading at 17.2x 2025 and 13.8x 2026 EPS.


TSMC: 3Q24 Large Beat, Guidance Better, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>AMD showing strong increases in CPU architecture and market share, particularly in AI accelerators</li><li>Launch of the Mi 325 X accelerator with improved specs and benchmarks against Nvidia's products</li><li>Critique of AMD's prioritization of data center over client solutions, but overall still competitive with Nvidia and gaining traction in the market</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AMD showing strong increases in CPU architecture and market share, particularly in AI acceleratorsLaunch of the Mi 325 X accelerator with improved specs and benchmarks against Nvidia's productsCritique of AMD's prioritization of data center over client solutions, but overall still competitive with Nvidia and gaining traction in the marketThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 89: Advancing AI, thoughts on AMD's Event, Nvidia, and Chain of Reasoning AI

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a>'s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener"> NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.   </a></li>
<li>The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  </li>
</ul>


We expect King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)'s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.
 NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.   
The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  


KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

Tesla first began to equip its Model S with self-driving technology in October 2014 and announced the launch of its "Autopilot" software to take advantage of those sensors exactly one year later. In separating the sensors from the software, and making that software incrementally available via over-the-air (OTA) updates, the company heralded an entirely new approach to autonomous driving that has since come to be both derided and admired in equal measure. Tesla's autopilot capability was widely regarded as ground-breaking when it was first introduced and many would argue that it was the catalyst for its peers and competitors to rapidly accelerate their autonomous driving investments and roadmaps.Since that time, Tesla's self-driving roadmap has seen many twists and turns. Their partnership with MobilEye, upon whose chips their initial autopilot roll-out critically depended, ended abruptly and acrimoniously in the wake of a fatal crash involving one of their Model S vehicles in May 2016. Their backup plan, the development of a custom ASIC chip to replicate MobilEye's functionality, was still in its infancy, forcing Tesla to turn to NVIDIA for its DRIVE PX platform. That same fatal crash was the impetus for a total redesign of their sensor suite. The new hardware platform was launched in October 2016 with the announcement that all future Tesla cars would be fully equipped with the hardware &amp; sensors required for full self-driving capability.As automobiles equipped with the new self-driving hardware rolled off the production lines, they were missing the software to make them work, meaning that they lacked basic advanced driving features such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), adaptive cruise control (ACC) etc. Tesla promised to deliver those capabilities incrementally in the following months, but inevitably, delays ensued and reliability concerns arose when they were initially released. Only in recent months has Tesla's "Enhanced Autopilot" begun to approach the same level of capability as its original launch version. Tesla CEO Elon Musk's commitment to demonstrating fully autonomous driving from US coast-to-coast by the end of 2017 failed to materialize, although he has recently stated that it should happen within 3-6 months. Meanwhile, the rapidly growing availability of new safety features such as AEB, the launch of competing driver assistance features such as General Motors (GM)"Super Cruise" and the publicly announced plans for driverless taxi pilots by both Waymo and GM have eroded Tesla's leadership. Indeed, one research firm, Navigant, doesn't even rate Tesla in its latest top ten leaders list.   In this Insight, we review the history of autonomous driving at Tesla, tracing its roots from the original autopilot launch to the present day. We examine the technology behind Tesla's self-driving platform and highlight their steadfast refusal to incorporate LIDAR in their sensor suite as every other competitor has done. Finally, in the wake of another fatal Tesla crash, we ask the very important question, how safe is Tesla Autopilot?

Tesla first began to equip its Model S with self-driving technology in October 2014 and announced the launch of its "Autopilot" software to take advantage of those sensors exactly one year later. In separating the sensors from the software, and making that software incrementally available via over-the-air (OTA) updates, the company heralded an entirely new approach to autonomous driving that has since come to be both derided and admired in equal measure. Tesla's autopilot capability was widely regarded as ground-breaking when it was first introduced and many would argue that it was the catalyst for its peers and competitors to rapidly accelerate their autonomous driving investments and roadmaps.Since that time, Tesla's self-driving roadmap has seen many twists and turns. Their partnership with MobilEye, upon whose chips their initial autopilot roll-out critically depended, ended abruptly and acrimoniously in the wake of a fatal crash involving one of their Model S vehicles in May 2016. Their backup plan, the development of a custom ASIC chip to replicate MobilEye's functionality, was still in its infancy, forcing Tesla to turn to NVIDIA for its DRIVE PX platform. That same fatal crash was the impetus for a total redesign of their sensor suite. The new hardware platform was launched in October 2016 with the announcement that all future Tesla cars would be fully equipped with the hardware &amp; sensors required for full self-driving capability.As automobiles equipped with the new self-driving hardware rolled off the production lines, they were missing the software to make them work, meaning that they lacked basic advanced driving features such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), adaptive cruise control (ACC) etc. Tesla promised to deliver those capabilities incrementally in the following months, but inevitably, delays ensued and reliability concerns arose when they were initially released. Only in recent months has Tesla's "Enhanced Autopilot" begun to approach the same level of capability as its original launch version. Tesla CEO Elon Musk's commitment to demonstrating fully autonomous driving from US coast-to-coast by the end of 2017 failed to materialize, although he has recently stated that it should happen within 3-6 months. Meanwhile, the rapidly growing availability of new safety features such as AEB, the launch of competing driver assistance features such as General Motors (GM)"Super Cruise" and the publicly announced plans for driverless taxi pilots by both Waymo and GM have eroded Tesla's leadership. Indeed, one research firm, Navigant, doesn't even rate Tesla in its latest top ten leaders list.   In this Insight, we review the history of autonomous driving at Tesla, tracing its roots from the original autopilot launch to the present day. We examine the technology behind Tesla's self-driving platform and highlight their steadfast refusal to incorporate LIDAR in their sensor suite as every other competitor has done. Finally, in the wake of another fatal Tesla crash, we ask the very important question, how safe is Tesla Autopilot?  

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC Q324 Earnings Key Takeaways

Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017. According to a key customer, demand for AI...

William Keating

TSMC: 3Q24 Large Beat, Guidance Better, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Margins expansion from 3Q24 reflects Utilization finally picking up, driving gross margins up. Yet, utilization is only at ~80% in 3Q24 when 10...

Nicolas Baratte

Episode 89: Advancing AI, thoughts on AMD's Event, Nvidia, and Chain of Reasoning AI

AMD is making strides in CPU architecture and market share, with a focus on AI accelerators and data center solutions, showing competitiveness with...

The Circuit

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Patrick Liao

Autonomous Driving- The Tesla Delusion

In the wake of Elon Musk's launch (relaunch?) of Tesla's RoboTaxi yesterday (which tanked the company's share price), you might be interested to...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Q324 Earnings Key Takeaways

Q424 revenue forecast of $26.5 billion, up 13% QoQ and the highest Q3 to Q4 revenue jump since Q4 2017. According to a key customer, demand for AI...

William Keating

TSMC: 3Q24 Large Beat, Guidance Better, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Margins expansion from 3Q24 reflects Utilization finally picking up, driving gross margins up. Yet, utilization is only at ~80% in 3Q24 when 10...

Nicolas Baratte

Episode 89: Advancing AI, thoughts on AMD's Event, Nvidia, and Chain of Reasoning AI

AMD is making strides in CPU architecture and market share, with a focus on AI accelerators and data center solutions, showing competitiveness with...

The Circuit

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

​Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Patrick Liao

Autonomous Driving- The Tesla Delusion

In the wake of Elon Musk's launch (relaunch?) of Tesla's RoboTaxi yesterday (which tanked the company's share price), you might be interested to...

William Keating

Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....