CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

We initiate coverage on CHAYO with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 12% from the current price. We derive our target price from the PB/ROE of Thai Diversified Financials and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Rising level of bad loans in Thailand can boost core business</li>
<li>Economic uncertainty helps to expand the customer base for debt collection</li>
<li>Debt collection to further benefit from increasing mobile usage</li>
<li>High growth is priced in, warrant exercise to fund growth</li>
</ul>
Risks: Increased competition in acquiring non-performing loans, loss from unsecured debt management, adverse regulatory changes, and potential litigation issues arising from debt collection service. A risk to our recommendation is that sentiment drives the share price considerably higher.

We initiate coverage on CHAYO with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 12% from the current price. We derive our target price from the PB/ROE of Thai Diversified Financials and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Rising level of bad loans in Thailand can boost core business
Economic uncertainty helps to expand the customer base for debt collection
Debt collection to further benefit from increasing mobile usage
High growth is priced in, warrant exercise to fund growth

Risks: Increased competition in acquiring non-performing loans, loss from unsecured debt management, adverse regulatory changes, and potential litigation issues arising from debt collection service. A risk to our recommendation is that sentiment drives the share price considerably higher.

CHAYO: When the Going Gets Tough, CHAYO Gets Going

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

CHAYO: When the Going Gets Tough, CHAYO Gets Going

We initiate coverage on CHAYO with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt6.90, implying a downside of 12% from the current price. We...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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