Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.</li><li>Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.</li><li>The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.</li></ul>

Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236,calculated using DCF,to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly aggressive. 3Q22 core earnings </li>
<li>Analyst meeting key details ADVANC has begun phasing out of its Bt100 to Bt150 low-end price plans in its prepaid segment due to the unsustainability.</li>
<li>No new progress has been made on the TTTBB deal. We expect ADVANC to make a counteroffer within 4Q22 to wrap-up the deal by 1H23.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236,calculated using DCF,to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly aggressive. 3Q22 core earnings 
Analyst meeting key details ADVANC has begun phasing out of its Bt100 to Bt150 low-end price plans in its prepaid segment due to the unsustainability.
No new progress has been made on the TTTBB deal. We expect ADVANC to make a counteroffer within 4Q22 to wrap-up the deal by 1H23.


ADVANC : Price War Remains Intense Amidst Inflation

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt246 (WACC: 8.7%,TG: 2%).Deal with JASIF did not turn out in ADVANC’s favor, but we expect the company to make a counteroffer.</li>
<li>Counteroffer to JASIF will lower ADVANC’s upside JASIF unitholders voted to approve agendas 1.1 (ADVANC purchasing 19% of JASIF) and 1.3 (AWN having control over TTTBB’s finances)</li>
<li>ADVANC now has three options based on the unitholders’ resolution: 1) reject the deal, 2) make a new proposal that’s more attractive, or 3) accept the deal.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt246 (WACC: 8.7%,TG: 2%).Deal with JASIF did not turn out in ADVANC’s favor, but we expect the company to make a counteroffer.
Counteroffer to JASIF will lower ADVANC’s upside JASIF unitholders voted to approve agendas 1.1 (ADVANC purchasing 19% of JASIF) and 1.3 (AWN having control over TTTBB’s finances)
ADVANC now has three options based on the unitholders’ resolution: 1) reject the deal, 2) make a new proposal that’s more attractive, or 3) accept the deal.


ADVANC : ADVANC May Not Give up on JASIF Deal Yet

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating but cut TP by 5% to Bt246,based on DCF,implying 21.8xPE’22E to factor in earnings cut.  Its 2Q22 core earnings was in-line at Bt6.6bn (-8%YoY, +5QoQ)</li>
<li>2Q22 core earnings was in-line with our forecast 2Q22 core earnings stood at Bt6.6bn (-8% YoY, +5% QoQ),declining YoY from higher SG&amp;A costs while increasing QoQ from higher gross margin.</li>
<li>2Q22 revenue was at Bt45bn (+6%YoY,flat QoQ).YoY increase was due to continued growth in broadband and enterprise&amp;digital business. QoQ was flat due to lack of growth in mobile service revenue.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating but cut TP by 5% to Bt246,based on DCF,implying 21.8xPE’22E to factor in earnings cut.  Its 2Q22 core earnings was in-line at Bt6.6bn (-8%YoY, +5QoQ)
2Q22 core earnings was in-line with our forecast 2Q22 core earnings stood at Bt6.6bn (-8% YoY, +5% QoQ),declining YoY from higher SG&amp;A costs while increasing QoQ from higher gross margin.
2Q22 revenue was at Bt45bn (+6%YoY,flat QoQ).YoY increase was due to continued growth in broadband and enterprise&amp;digital business. QoQ was flat due to lack of growth in mobile service revenue.


ADVANC : In-Line 2Q22 Result Despite Price War

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF,representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF units came with positive tone</li>
<li>The deal should be highly favorable for ADVANC:We believe that the entire transaction could provide a 8.5% upside to our current forecasted 23E EPS through Adjusted EPS, leading to Bt11.54/share.</li>
<li>2Q22E earnings will keep 22E earnings on track We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt6.5bn(-7% YoY, +4% QoQ).Seasonal low costs, despite high competition, will lead to QoQ </li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF,representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF units came with positive tone
The deal should be highly favorable for ADVANC:We believe that the entire transaction could provide a 8.5% upside to our current forecasted 23E EPS through Adjusted EPS, leading to Bt11.54/share.
2Q22E earnings will keep 22E earnings on track We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt6.5bn(-7% YoY, +4% QoQ).Seasonal low costs, despite high competition, will lead to QoQ 


ADVANC : Large Boost to Broadband Business Growth

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH,...

Krungthai XSpring

ADVANC : Price War Remains Intense Amidst Inflation

We maintain our BUY rating but lower TP by 4% to Bt236, calculated using DCF, to factor in earnings cut as our 22E and 23E forecasts were slightly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC : ADVANC May Not Give up on JASIF Deal Yet

Intervention should be a measure of last resort. It really shouldn’t be used as much as you can,” Shinohara said. “Still, by not announcing it each...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC : In-Line 2Q22 Result Despite Price War

We maintain our BUY rating but cut TP by 5% to Bt246, based on DCF,implying 21.8xPE’22E to factor in earnings cut. Its 2Q22 core earnings was in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ADVANC : Large Boost to Broadband Business Growth

We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF, representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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