External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ABFRL announced the acquisition of TCNS Clothing (TCNS) and will acquire a 51% stake in TCNS in a two-part transaction: (1) it will acquire 22-30.81% from TCNS’ promoters and 20.19-29% in a conditional open offer for ~INR16.5bn (at INR503/sh) (2) this will be followed by a merger between the two entities via a share swap arrangement (share exchange ratio: 11:6)</li><li>Total deal value is pegged at ~INR29bn (including the share swap)</li><li>ABFRL's share dilution post-acquisition is ~5.7%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ABFRL announced the acquisition of TCNS Clothing (TCNS) and will acquire a 51% stake in TCNS in a two-part transaction: (1) it will acquire 22-30.81% from TCNS’ promoters and 20.19-29% in a conditional open offer for ~INR16.5bn (at INR503/sh) (2) this will be followed by a merger between the two entities via a share swap arrangement (share exchange ratio: 11:6)Total deal value is pegged at ~INR29bn (including the share swap)ABFRL's share dilution post-acquisition is ~5.7%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail - ABFRL’s TCNS Acquisition—playing with Fire.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four-year revenue CAGR: 16%)</li><li>Elevated ticket sizes and store expansion coupled with normalizing footfalls aided growth</li><li>However, in retail, many of these variables are now mean-reverting</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four-year revenue CAGR: 16%)Elevated ticket sizes and store expansion coupled with normalizing footfalls aided growthHowever, in retail, many of these variables are now mean-revertingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Discretionary Peak Most Certainly Behind Us

<ul><li>Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line top-line (5.6% YoY three-year CAGR: 17% INR27bn) whose three-year CAGR was at par with APNT’s</li><li>Decorative business clocked ~6.6/7.2% volume/value YoY growth (3-year value CAGR: 17.2%)</li><li>Distribution expansion was stepped up (addition of 8k sales points in 9MFY23)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line top-line (5.6% YoY three-year CAGR: 17% INR27bn) whose three-year CAGR was at par with APNT’sDecorative business clocked ~6.6/7.2% volume/value YoY growth (3-year value CAGR: 17.2%)Distribution expansion was stepped up (addition of 8k sales points in 9MFY23)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Berger Paints, Voltas, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Kansai Nerolac

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ABFRL’s Q3FY23 print was decent if we exclude ~2.3x (Rs 125Crs) increase in one-time marketing spends and strategic investment in new ventures as the company reinstates its rigour on building brand exercise (after 2-year of covid-19 disruptions and ahead of the festive season).</li><li>The management further alluded that the company’s ad spends will normalize going forward to the historical average of ~3-3.5% of sales.</li><li>Revenue maintained its strong momentum, led by strong LTL growth across branded and e- commerce businesses.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ABFRL’s Q3FY23 print was decent if we exclude ~2.3x (Rs 125Crs) increase in one-time marketing spends and strategic investment in new ventures as the company reinstates its rigour on building brand exercise (after 2-year of covid-19 disruptions and ahead of the festive season).The management further alluded that the company’s ad spends will normalize going forward to the historical average of ~3-3.5% of sales.Revenue maintained its strong momentum, led by strong LTL growth across branded and e- commerce businesses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion (Abfrl) - Higher Ad-Spends Weigh on Margins; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Discretionary categories to clock another healthy quarter: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~14/% YoY (revenue) in Q3FY23 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17/12% resp)</li><li>Ticket sizes in retail remain elevated, courtesy of higher ASP vis-à-vis pre-pandemic levels. Footfall density is normalising too</li><li>Jewellery, paints, apparel, and footwear are expected to clock 22%, 17%, 12%, and 6% (three-year CAGRs).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Discretionary categories to clock another healthy quarter: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~14/% YoY (revenue) in Q3FY23 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17/12% resp)Ticket sizes in retail remain elevated, courtesy of higher ASP vis-à-vis pre-pandemic levels. Footfall density is normalising tooJewellery, paints, apparel, and footwear are expected to clock 22%, 17%, 12%, and 6% (three-year CAGRs).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Healthy Quarter!

India

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd provides a wide range of mid-priced garments for men. The Company's collection includes internationally styled formal, elite, casual, party, and wedding apparel.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)

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Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail - ABFRL’s TCNS Acquisition—playing with Fire.

ABFRL announced the acquisition of TCNS Clothing (TCNS) and will acquire a 51% stake in TCNS in a two-part transaction: (1) it will acquire 22...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary - Discretionary Peak Most Certainly Behind Us

Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Berger Paints, Voltas, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Kansai Nerolac

Berger Paints: BRGR delivered an in-line top-line (5.6% YoY three-year CAGR: 17% INR27bn) whose three-year CAGR was at par with APNT’s

HDFC Securities

Aditya Birla Fashion (Abfrl) - Higher Ad-Spends Weigh on Margins; Maintain BUY

The management further alluded that the company’s ad spends will normalize going forward to the historical average of ~3-3.5% of sales.

Axis Direct

Consumer Discretionary - Healthy Quarter!

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~14/% YoY (revenue) in Q3FY23 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17/12% resp)

HDFC Securities

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