Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After growing at around 7% over 2012-19, China’s GDP growth dipped to 2.3% in 2020 due to COVID-19. The World Bank estimates the GDP growth to bounce back to 8.4% in 2021 but projects a rapid deceleration (5.4% in 2022) thereafter due to multiple economic headwinds.</li>
<li>We think that the Chinese sportswear market is highly influenced by the GDP growth as it declined at an annual average rate of 2% during 2011-13 when the GDP growth decelerated from 9.6% to 7.8%.</li>
</ul>


After growing at around 7% over 2012-19, China’s GDP growth dipped to 2.3% in 2020 due to COVID-19. The World Bank estimates the GDP growth to bounce back to 8.4% in 2021 but projects a rapid deceleration (5.4% in 2022) thereafter due to multiple economic headwinds.
We think that the Chinese sportswear market is highly influenced by the GDP growth as it declined at an annual average rate of 2% during 2011-13 when the GDP growth decelerated from 9.6% to 7.8%.


Chinese Sportswear: Macro Headwinds Pose Significant Downside Risks

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Wang Yi attacks Washington</li>
<li>Opium of the masses. No, not that one</li>
<li>Will China change its Covid-19 approach?</li>
<li>Not just for Olympians. Beijing demands exercise</li>
<li>Please, please have another kid</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li><div>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</div></li></ul></div>

China News That Matters
Wang Yi attacks Washington
Opium of the masses. No, not that one
Will China change its Covid-19 approach?
Not just for Olympians. Beijing demands exercise
Please, please have another kid
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Sino-US/ Tech/ Covid-19/ Exercise/ Babies

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>Last Friday, the company announced a profit alert with revenue grew 60% and NPAT RMB 1.8 billion or 163% higher YoY citing improvement in operating margin. This could come not only from a discipline operating expenses management but also an improved product mix; margin from online sales is higher than from retail. </p><p>There will be some sellers today to book some profit from yesterday's gain but long-term investors should hold on to this as the nationalistic pattern may last longer than the first half of 2021 especially when the US is still making taking a hard stand on the Xinjiang issue, now moving from the cotton to solar panel, therefore, driving a higher revenue to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> .</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Li Ning's valuation and share price may sound expensive but the appeal of an online focus business with higher profitability and leaner capital structure compared to its peers warrant some premium. </p></div>

Last Friday, the company announced a profit alert with revenue grew 60% and NPAT RMB 1.8 billion or 163% higher YoY citing improvement in operating margin. This could come not only from a discipline operating expenses management but also an improved product mix; margin from online sales is higher than from retail. There will be some sellers today to book some profit from yesterday's gain but long-term investors should hold on to this as the nationalistic pattern may last longer than the first half of 2021 especially when the US is still making taking a hard stand on the Xinjiang issue, now moving from the cotton to solar panel, therefore, driving a higher revenue to Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) .Li Ning's valuation and share price may sound expensive but the appeal of an online focus business with higher profitability and leaner capital structure compared to its peers warrant some premium. 

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.</p>

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anta Sports Products / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s Chairman aims to raise around US$1.5bn via selling a 3.3% stake in the company. In this note, we will run the deal through our framework and talk about deal dynamics. </p><p>We have covered one of the earlier placements in the stock in 2017, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/anta-sports-raising-for-hopefully-a-good-acquisition-great-track-record-helps" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anta Sports - Raising for Hopefully a Good Acquisition, Great Track Record Helps</a>.</p>

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s Chairman aims to raise around US$1.5bn via selling a 3.3% stake in the company. In this note, we will run the deal through our framework and talk about deal dynamics. We have covered one of the earlier placements in the stock in 2017, Anta Sports - Raising for Hopefully a Good Acquisition, Great Track Record Helps.

Anta Sports Placement - Has Been Doing Well but the Chairman Selling Will Be -Ve for Sentiment

Germany

adidas AG manufactures sports shoes and sports equipment. The Company produces products that include footwear, sports apparel, and golf clubs and balls. adidas sells its products worldwide.

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adidas (ADS GR)

Chinese Sportswear: Macro Headwinds Pose Significant Downside Risks

The Chinese sportswear market is highly influenced by the GDP growth as it declined at an annual average rate of 2% during 2011-13 when the GDP...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sino-US/ Tech/ Covid-19/ Exercise/ Babies

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Li Ning (2331): Marching On

Li Ning's valuation and share price may sound expensive but the appeal of an online focus business with higher profitability and leaner capital...

Henry Soediarko

The Transcript 05.10.21: Pent-up Demand

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of...

The Transcript

Anta Sports Placement - Has Been Doing Well but the Chairman Selling Will Be -Ve for Sentiment

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s Chairman aims to raise around US$1.5bn via selling a 3.3% stake in the company. In this note, we will run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

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