External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ADRO booked a healthy 2Q24 sales volume growth (+12% qoq/ +9% yoy) despite qoq production drop.</li><li>We deem 1H24 sales volume as inline amid higher weather uncertainty in 2H24, and estimate 1H24 EBITDA of US$1.1-1.2bn (54-55% of FY24F).</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating on improving earnings growth amid our view of a favourable coal S-D outlook.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ADRO booked a healthy 2Q24 sales volume growth (+12% qoq/ +9% yoy) despite qoq production drop.We deem 1H24 sales volume as inline amid higher weather uncertainty in 2H24, and estimate 1H24 EBITDA of US$1.1-1.2bn (54-55% of FY24F).We reiterate our Buy rating on improving earnings growth amid our view of a favourable coal S-D outlook.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Adaro Energy - 2Q24E Preview: Strong Sales Volume to Offset Possible Slight ASP Drop

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.</li><li>Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. </li><li>We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A combination of slight foreign funds outflow and local funds selling has driven a JCI correction of -0.8% wow.</li><li>Foreign funds flow returned to negative, albeit relatively lighter (at -US$169mn) compared to prior weeks.</li><li>The outflow was still dominated by the large-cap banks with coal stock AADI also among the top-5 stocks sold by foreign investors.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A combination of slight foreign funds outflow and local funds selling has driven a JCI correction of -0.8% wow.Foreign funds flow returned to negative, albeit relatively lighter (at -US$169mn) compared to prior weeks.The outflow was still dominated by the large-cap banks with coal stock AADI also among the top-5 stocks sold by foreign investors.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – China Coal Inventory at Port

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).</li><li>This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.</li><li>This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Indonesia’s Jul24 coal production rose +10.7% mom/ +3.2% yoy to 72Mt, driving an improved 7M24 growth to 5.8% yoy (477Mt).</li><li>China and India’s 6M24 imports have remained resilient, while Indonesia’s high production cost continues to offer support for price.</li><li>We maintain OW rating on the sector but shift our preference to UNTR amid the ST supply risk from Indonesia.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia’s Jul24 coal production rose +10.7% mom/ +3.2% yoy to 72Mt, driving an improved 7M24 growth to 5.8% yoy (477Mt).China and India’s 6M24 imports have remained resilient, while Indonesia’s high production cost continues to offer support for price.We maintain OW rating on the sector but shift our preference to UNTR amid the ST supply risk from Indonesia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal Sector: Rising Indonesia Production, but Demand and Cost Curve Remain Supportive for Price

Indonesia

PT Adaro Energy Tbk is a coal mining company. The Company and its subsidiaries currently deal in coal mining and trade, coal infrastructure and logistics, and mining contractor services.

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Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)

Adaro Energy - 2Q24E Preview: Strong Sales Volume to Offset Possible Slight ASP Drop

We deem 1H24 sales volume as inline amid higher weather uncertainty in 2H24, and estimate 1H24 EBITDA of US$1.1-1.2bn (54-55% of FY24F).

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – China Coal Inventory at Port

The outflow was still dominated by the large-cap banks with coal stock AADI also among the top-5 stocks sold by foreign investors.

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Sectoral Update December 3, 2024

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY. This was supported by import volume of...

MNC Sekuritas

Coal Sector: Rising Indonesia Production, but Demand and Cost Curve Remain Supportive for Price

Indonesia’s Jul24 coal production rose +10.7% mom/ +3.2% yoy to 72Mt, driving an improved 7M24 growth to 5.8% yoy (477Mt).

BRI Danareksa Research

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