Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the next rebalance of a global index kicks off this week and that is where a lot of eyes will be focused.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> while there were redemptions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Inflows continue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> while there were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the next rebalance of a global index kicks off this week and that is where a lot of eyes will be focused.
There were big inflows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) while there were redemptions from the Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK). 
Inflows continue for iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) while there were outflows from iShares ACWI ETF (ACWI US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

<ul>
<li>Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in deletion zone.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in deletion zone.
There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Market sentiment remains optimistic, we anticipate the rally to continue with 20,200 on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> as a trend check level. </li>
<li>There are concerns about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-97-communications-limited-paytm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a> growth in personal loans in the near term, but the merchant side provides a large enough opportunity.  </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Market sentiment remains optimistic, we anticipate the rally to continue with 20,200 on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) as a trend check level. 
There are concerns about Paytm (PAYTM IN) growth in personal loans in the near term, but the merchant side provides a large enough opportunity.  
Other names discussed include Eicher Motors (EIM IN), Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN), and Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) 


[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

<ul>
<li>Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-September. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>We find 9 stocks where there could be inflows with passive trackers needing to buy over 1 day of ADV on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-September. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.
We find 9 stocks where there could be inflows with passive trackers needing to buy over 1 day of ADV on most stocks.


India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

India

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

Price Gauge
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Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Wipro is a potential deletion from the SENSEX in June. Adani Enterprises is in pole position, just ahead of Coal India. Passives need to trade over...

Brian Freitas

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Wipro is a potential deletion from the SENSEX in June. Adani Enterprises is in pole position, just ahead of Coal India. Passives need to trade over...

Brian Freitas

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

​Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...